While Yahtse Glacier may be ignoring climate signals for now, Larsen and his colleagues aren't about to discount the impact
of recent warming trends entirely.
Some people think that the AMO is related to the atlantic thermohaline circulation, and that the shifting of heat North and South that is associated with its variations could cause
some of the recent warming trend in the north Atlantic.
It appears that increases in atmospheric CO2 (and other GHG's) are contributing approximately 50 %
of the recent warming trend on planet earth
We often hear the claim that the science of climate change is settled, that there is general agreement that humans have been causing most
of the recent warming trend, and that it will all end in global disaster unless we «do something about it».
Not exact matches
Water Birth: A more
recent trend, water birthing is the practice
of delivering a baby inside
of a tub
of warm water, though some only use the tub for labor.
«This
trend to have even more dramatic numbers
of overnight lower temperatures being exceedingly
warm is consistent with what we have seen in
recent decades,» he said.
Because
of the strong
recent warming, the updated
trend over 1906 to 2005 is now 0.74 ± 0.18 degree C. Note that the 1956 to 2005
trend alone is 0.65 ± 0.15 degree C, emphasizing that the majority
of 20th - century
warming occurred in the past 50 years.
While natural patterns
of certain atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance
of a long - term
warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates in
recent years.
A graph
of the
warming trend largely replicates the so - called «hockey stick,» a previous reconstruction that showed relatively stable temperatures suddenly spiking upward in
recent history.
One
of the main planks
of the argument that CRF is responsible for the most
recent warming is based on figure 14b in Veizer (2005), where there appears to be a
trend in CRF from eg Climax neutron monitor (also, see plots at this URL).
In fact, the CRF curves presented by some
of the key cosmic - ray hypothesis proponents, Marsh & Svensmark, do not exhibit any
trend, yet it has been claimed that CRF is responsible for the most
recent warming (Marsh & Svensmark say that the wiggles correlate, but don't discuss the [or lack
of] observed
trends).
Nonetheless, even if the substantial
recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product
of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place to look, from a signal vs. noise point
of view, for the large - scale polar amplification signature
of anthropogenic surface
warming.
2) Three years ago, I tried to get a handle on whether UHI was responsible for the
recent warming trend in most
of the temperature datasets by comparing the
trends for the UAH / MSU 2LT channel and the Jones et al. surface data for some
of the world's «empty places».
Veizer must be aware that in view
of these more
recent data, the scientist who originally proposed this correlation in 1991, Knud Lassen, has concluded in 2000 that solar cycle variations can not explain the ongoing
warming trend [1].
After all, the implied changes in GCR flux are huge compared to what is expected from the gentle modulation
of the Earth's magnetic field arising from
recent solar activity changes (not that there's any
trend in those that would explain
recent warming).
Since individual clouds have a life time
of hours, and the CRF - interpretation involves changes in the reflected light as well as ionisation, a climatic response from change in CRF is hypothetically almost instantaneous, and it is a challenge to explain why the night side (where there is no sunlight and hence reflection can not play a role)
warms more strongly than the dayside, if the CRF were to drive the
recent warming trend.
3) Our paper — by itself — does not address whether Antarctica's
recent warming is part
of a longer term
trend.
Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence
of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the
recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric
warming trends.
He had written a column saying that Soon and Baliunas had demonstrated that Michael Mann's work and the work
of others (showing that the
recent warming trend surpassed that
of any other in the last 1000 years
of climate) was wrong.
The problem is that the regions where aerosols are produced show
warming not cooling in
recent times, and the 1940 - 1975 cooling
trend is seen in many parts
of the globe where aerosols were not a factor.
It seems that attacks on the validity
of the surface temperature record as an attempt to cast doubt on the
recent warming trend would have been a bit more convincing back in the day when there were competing satellite temperature records that suggested a cooling
trend.
From his own research in chemical oceanography, along with data from a number
of recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences
of greenhouse gas emissions and
warming «are manifesting faster than previously predicted,» including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect «a large fraction
of marine species if current
trends continue unchecked.»
This NASA analysis highlights that the
recent lull in surface temperatures is simply the result
of natural variability superimposed upon the global
warming trend - the cool phase
of a cool /
warm oscillation.
While some places were cooler this year than in
recent summers, they may have still been above average over the entire period
of record, as
warming trends in
Researchers from Dartmouth College and Boise State University are studying the importance
of long - term
warming trends to account for the
recent upswing in melting rates in
recent years.
They observed a Holocene cooling
trend in the Antarctic
of -0.26 to -0.40 degrees C / millennium for the past 1900 years prior to present day
warming of the most
recent 200 years.
Finally, to show that cosmic rays were actually responsible for some part
of the
recent warming you would need to show that there was actually a decreasing
trend in cosmic rays over
recent decades — which is tricky, because there hasn't been (see the figure)(Missing step # 5).
«If» the reference really was «all - engine» and if the proportions really matched Kent 2007, then half
of «
recent»
trends could be affected, with more
warming occurring prior to 1950.
try to argue we don't have a clear signal
of recent warming, that the data is too uncertain, 1998 ended the
trend, blah blah.
«Finally, subtropical drying
trends predicted from the
warming alone fall well short
of those observed in
recent decades.
411 SG Bolstrom, I am observing a particular
trend unlike the
recent past, whereas the Arctic air profiles are leaning more adiabatically during winter, this means a whole lot
of confusion with respect to temperature
trends, namely the high Upper Air should cool as the surface
warms, and the reverse, the Upper air
warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwards.
It seems that attacks on the validity
of the surface temperature record as an attempt to cast doubt on the
recent warming trend would have been a bit more convincing back in the day when there were competing satellite temperature records that suggested a cooling
trend.
And efforts to establish some sort
of long term
warming trend hidden away due to other factors have required a great many very complex and convoluted statistical calesthenics — all
of which have been rendered irrelevant thanks to the
recent data «corrections» by Karl et al..
While periods
of increased and decreased
warming exist over the 132 - year period, the linear rate is still ~ 0.6 C / century, and the most
recent monthly GISS values fall right on the linear
trend (the linear
trend value for the Feb. 2012 temperature anomaly is +0.38 C, while the last two months have been +0.35 and +0.40 C.)
A very consistent understanding is thus emerging
of the coupled ocean and atmosphere dynamics that have caused the
recent decadal - scale departure from the longer - term global
warming trend.
The case
of Quelccaya, in the Andes, is especially interesting, because it provides direct evidence
of an unusual
recent warming trend.
The
recent warming has been more pronounced in the Arctic Eurasia than in many other regions on our planet, but Franzke (2012) argues that only one out
of 109 temperature records from this region exhibits a significant
warming trend.
On # 72: Gavin, isn't the real point that the magnitude
of individual year deviations from the (rising)
trend says nothing about the «exceptionality
of recent warming»?
4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece on global
warming and hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a
recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant
trend in the frequency
of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
«The treatment
of the buoy sea - surface temperature (SST) data was guaranteed to put a
warming trend in
recent data.
Recent non-uniform
warming trends in the Indian Ocean [Ihara et al., 2008] raise the possibility that the characteristics
of positive and negative IOD events might be changing.
«The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in
recent years are a result
of long - term
trends associated with global
warming.
Arctic researchers caution that there is something
of a paradox in Arctic
trends: while the long - term fate
of the region may be mostly sealed, no one should presume that the
recent sharp
warming and seasonal ice retreats that have caught the world's attention will continue smoothly into the future.
Nonetheless, even if the substantial
recent trend in the AO pattern is simply a product
of natural multidecadal variability in North Atlantic climate, it underscores the fact that western and southern Greenland is an extremely poor place to look, from a signal vs. noise point
of view, for the large - scale polar amplification signature
of anthropogenic surface
warming.
I've seen other comments that point out the variability
of the data points, in terms
of uncertainties, and also the
recent study about removing temporary negative and positive influences on temperature, showing a definite continuing
warming trend.
It's been nice in
recent days to see some strong advocates for curbs in emissions
of greenhouse gases shift from the more overheated, and unsupported, rhetoric they used earlier this year in attempting a kind
of «kitchen sink» argument aiming to tie virtually every
recent harmful weather event to
warming, even those — like powerful tornadoes — for which there is no link and certainly no
trend.
From the beginning, many
of the complaints about Mann's work were more about how it was appropriated by others than the research itself; the first paper
of his identifying a «hockey stick» pattern to temperatures over the last millennium, in 1999, was laced with caveats in describing the distinct sharp
recent warming trend.
These earlier years, mainly El Nino years, average 11.5 years earlier than the projected
recent hottest four, perhaps suggesting a rough calculation
of the
recent rate
of AGW
of at +0.16 ºC / decade, this
of course the
warming trend of peak years through the so - called «hiatus» years and being «peak years», it is a rate which assumes cooler years will be coming along soon.
Another important paper
of recent is by Easterling and Wehner that demonstrates that cooling on timescales
of years to a decade or two are not that unusual even when the system is undergoing a long - term
warming trend induced by radiative forcing.
To set the
recent trend in broader context, check out sociologist Robert Brulle's graph tracking network news coverage
of global
warming and the following graph
of newspaper coverage
of climate change from 1980 to 2006 (a separate newspaper sample) from Dr. Boykoff's
recent paper in Nature Reports — Climate Change: