These warnings often sound like this: The fees that you pay to invest your money could take a huge bite out
of your returns over the long term, so watch them closely.
Clearly not all consumers are going to buy into the idea of an 8 % rate
of return over the long term.
These warnings often sound like this: The fees that you pay to invest your money could take a huge bite out
of your returns over the long term, so watch them closely.
However, from a mindful perspective, it feels like nothing much is lost by taking a reasonable chance of suffering a 41 % draw down instead of a 32 % drawdown, and something is clearly gained by having a good chance of an added percent or so
of return over the long term.
Not exact matches
The payoff: Risk doesn't guarantee higher average
returns, but it makes them more likely
over the life
of a
long -
term investment.
Quite simply, it is the
returns for the shareholders
of that company
over the
long term.
«As a
long -
term value investor, we remain cautious and recognise that to generate good real
returns over time, we have to be prepared for periods
of underperformance relative to the market indices, some even for a stretch
of several years.»
Investors should also take note that poor years — those in the bottom quartile
of returns — tended to be worse when starting valuations were more elevated
over the
long -
term average.
Challenger Managed investments general manger Martin Ashe said that, not only had there been a demand from clients for a fund
of this type, but that the company considered socially responsive companies would post attractive
returns for shareholders
over the
longer term.
While past performance is no guarantee
of future results, historical
returns consistently show that a well - diversified stock portfolio can be the most rewarding
over the
long term.
One - third
of performance share awards, which make up 50 %
of long -
term incentive compensation, are tied to average
return on invested capital
over a three - year period.
The ultimate ability
of a company to generate
returns for its
long -
term owners
over many decades is going to be determined by the
return on capital it produces.
In related news, John Bogle, founder
of Vanguard, told Bloomberg in a separate interview he agreed with Gross that investors should expect lower
long -
term returns than average
returns produced
over the last century.
By investing in a diverse pool
of assets, it should collectively lower your risk yet stabilize your
returns over the
long term.
So while there could be one or even five year periods where
longer maturity bonds perform fairly well from these yield levels,
over the
long -
term they're likely to be a poor investment in
terms of earning a decent
return over the rate
of inflation.
Fairfax seeks to differentiate itself by combining disciplined underwriting with the investment
of its assets on a total
return basis, which Fairfax believes provides above - average
returns over the
long -
term.
One
of my astute readers, named Jim, wondered how far out
of whack the
returns can get
over any one year period from this
long -
term trendline.
The higher the price an investor pays for that expected stream
of cash flows today, the lower the
return that an investor should expect
over the
long -
term.
Cash alternatives, such as money market funds, typically offer lower rates
of return than
longer -
term equity or fixed - income securities and may not keep pace with inflation
over extended periods
of time.
Although supply has
returned to the market
over the short
term — due to a combination
of increased production from US shale producers and the easy availability
of capital via debt and equity markets — I'm expecting supply growth to moderate
over the
long term as capital becomes more expensive and less available to marginal energy producers.
It aims to deliver these
returns with a lower level
of volatility than the broader Australian stock market
over the medium to
long term.
From record - breaking stock market
returns to falling unemployment, the U.S. has no shortage
of positive economic indicators, and the majority
of investors say they feel confident about achieving both their short - and
long -
term goals, according to the latest «Morgan Stanley Investor Pulse Poll,» which surveyed more than 1,200 investors age 25 to 75 with
over $ 100,000 in assets.
While valuations drive
long -
term returns, the primary driver
of market
returns over shorter portions
of the market cycle is the attitude
of investors toward risk, as indicated by the uniformity or divergence
of market internals.
Furthermore, it seeks to achieve these
returns with a lower level
of volatility than the broader Australian stock market
over the medium to
long term in order to smooth
returns for investors.
In the face
of speculative noise, the
long -
term returns from a proper discounting approach may not capture as much speculative
return as might be possible, but
over time, many
of those speculative swings tend to wash out anyway.
That difference may be positive or negative and therefore represents our largest source
of risk, but
over time, it has also represented the primary source
of long -
term Fund
returns.
The essential thing to understand about valuations is that while they are highly reliable measures
of prospective
long -
term market
returns (particularly
over 10 - 12 year horizons), and
of potential downside risk
over the completion
of any market cycle, valuations are also nearly useless
over shorter segments
of the market cycle.
Valuations are the primary driver
of long -
term returns, and the risk - preferences
of investors — as conveyed by the uniformity or divergence
of market action across a broad range
of individual stocks, industries, sectors and security types (including credit)-- drive
returns over shorter portions
of the market cycle.
While
long -
term market
returns are driven almost exclusively by valuations, investment
returns over shorter segments
of the market cycle are highly dependent on investor psychology, particularly the inclination
of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.
Estimates
of prospective
long -
term returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability over the economic cycle (see for example Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell, The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade and Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Ear
returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability
over the economic cycle (see for example Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell, The Likely Range
of Market
Returns in the Coming Decade and Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Ear
Returns in the Coming Decade and Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings).
The idea is that you want to hold enough stocks to earn the
returns you'll need to grow your nest egg
over the
long -
term, but also enough in bonds to provide some downside protection so you don't bail out
of equities in a severe downturn.
As you become a more sophisticated investor the target date fund might not make as much sense to you since you can get smaller incremental investment
returns investing your IRA in a mixture
of low cost index funds — which have lower fees
over the
long term.
Put simply, valuations have enormous implications for
long -
term investment
returns, and for prospective market losses (or gains)
over the completion
of any market cycle, especially those that feature historically extreme valuation peaks (or troughs).
We can further confirm the conclusion
of «stocks
over bonds» for investing in most inflation periods by looking at the real
returns of long -
term treasury bonds versus the total U.S. stock market starting at the unprecedented and
long - lived bond bull market starting in 1982.
Since the inception
of the Fund (as well,
of course, in
long -
term historical tests), our present approach to risk management has both added to
returns and reduced volatility - not necessarily in any short period, but
over the complete market cycle.
This leaves roughly 1.4 %
of historical
long -
term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e.
over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster than the 5.7 % average rate
of earnings growth).
Based on the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with a 10 % discount rate (the target rate
of return), if the company grows the dividend by an average
of 7 % per year for the
long term, then the fair price is
over $ 90, compared to the current stock price
of only about $ 83.
Still, there is emphatically no investment merit in
long -
term bonds, in the sense that by definition, a
long -
term investment in 10 - year Treasury securities will lock in a total
return of less than 3.4 %
over the coming decade.
The truth is that dividends aren't just a component
of the market's total
return over the
long term; they're the main component.
Since total
return is comprised
of income (via dividends or distributions) and capital gain, with the former counting much more
over the
long term, the case for this stock having a great 2018 is certainly already there based on that higher - than - average yield.
Investing may earn you more based on oft - quoted
long term averages but, consider this, if the market tanks by 50 % in one year, it would take
over 7 years
of so called «average stock market
returns of 10 %» to
return to the same position you were in just prior to the loss, and that is not even factoring in inflation.
Long -
term corporate bonds, those issued by some
of the most stable companies, have provided a 7.4 %
return annually
over the last decade.
As such, we encourage the Committee to also devote time and attention to several issues that will help ensure the
long -
term stability
of the individual market, including: Section 1332 waivers under the ACA;
long -
term stability funding; limiting third - party premium payments; and
returning to the states more regulatory authority
over the individual and small group markets.
As the value
of the digital currency swings
over a period
of time, the potential for
returns in the short - as well as the
long -
term is immense.
However, the combination
of smart capital management and a uniquely diverse product portfolio (spanning medical device sales, pharmaceuticals, and consumer products) has ensured that the healthcare titan's
returns trounced the broader market
over the
long term.
As we ring in a new year, we believe we have built a portfolio
of high quality companies that will provide our shareholders with attractive
returns over the
long term.
The bottom line: Berkshire's business has transformed
over the years, but remains focused on
long -
term return and the efficient use
of capital.
Over the next 10 years, we think U.S. stock
returns will be below our
long -
term range
of 6 % to 8 %.
A diversified portfolio may not make the highest
returns during a period
of strong optimism but,
over the
long term, diversified allocations can mitigate some
of the volatility that a more concentrated portfolio typically reflects.
At present, investors have no reasonable incentive at all to «lock in» the prospective
returns implied by current prices
of stocks or
long -
term bonds (though we suspect that 10 - year Treasuries may benefit
over a short horizon due to continued economic risks and still - unresolved debt concerns in Europe, which has already entered an economic downturn).