Sentences with phrase «of reversion to mean»

Climate shifts are in principle unpredictable — but I suggest that a cooler state space is more likely on the basis of reversion to the mean.

Understanding and using the phenomenon of reversion to the mean is essential in making sound predictions [decisions]... Reversion to the mean is most pronounced at the extremes, so the first lesson is to recognize that when you see extremely good or bad results, they are unlikely to continue that way.

-LSB-...] investors refer to contrarian investing as a phenomenon that takes advantage of reversion to the mean.

Pure contrarian investing is investing relying solely on the phenomenon of reversion to the mean without making an assessment of value.

I mentioned earlier the concept of reversion to the mean (in «Achieving Greater Long - Term Wealth Through Index Funds,» AAII Journal, June 2014); it happens, it's documented decade after decade.

Index investors, in aggregate, are likely to realize higher returns because of lower costs and the effect of reversion to the mean on active strategies.

Such active errors do not negate however the phenomenon of reversion to the mean.

Are you familiar with the concept of reversion to the mean?

«There is an innate tendency of reversion to the mean.

Not exact matches

There is going to be a reversion of the mean,» Orlando said.

It's one of the most basic rules in economics: Reversion to the mean.

Gold has 5000 years of history behind it as currency, blink and you might miss the reversion to the mean of Gold being money again.

I'm actively looking at my debt and determining if it makes more sense to pay down mortgages (locking in a guaranteed ~ 4 % return) or investing in bonds (~ 1 % returns if held to maturity) or stocks (uncertain, but I just wrote an article about the current PE ratio and the inevitable reversion to the mean and I believe we are likely headed for 10 years of low single digit returns).

The growing possibility of mean reversion in the U.S. Consumer Staples, Telecommunications, and Utilities sectors is something that we believe baby boomers in particular may want to keep in mind.

This recent turn of events favoring international equities over U.S. equities could point to the early makings of a mean - reversion following years of outsized gains for U.S. equities.

If you apply the principle of mean reversion, history appears to favor China landing on top during this Year of the Dragon.

From a «consensual positioning» perspective which touches on this current «mean - reversion dynamic in the marketplace: say this big bond rally were to gather steam into a much more punishing squeeze of the «all - time» UST short base (largely due to the previously mentioned lack of «tolerance» for beginning of year performance pain).

It's just a matter of time before we see a reversion to the mean in which housing prices revert back to the true fundamental condition of the middle class in this country.

Bogle, 87, called me from his Vanguard office at Valley Forge, Pa., on Wednesday to discuss the hedge - fund redemptions, which he attributes to a surge of competition in the sector and the inevitable «reversion to the mean» for returns.

2) By extending the projection horizon by an extra market cycle (~ 6 years - the current half - cycle is quite long - in - the - tooth from a hisorical perspective) the effect of mean reversion has a greater chance to dominate the occasional noise that emerges (e.g. during the tech bubble) over shorter horizons.

I operated in the world of supply and demand which translates into reversion to the mean for an investor.

It's possible we're facing the final stage of this particular economic cycle, as a majority of fund managers suspect, but mean reversion could eventually bring conditions back to «normal.»

Clearly, adding a small out - of - range segment to a normally mean - reverting chart can make it look (at least temporarily) as if the mean reversion doesn't exist.

The mechanism for the lower returns, in my view, is not going to be some kind of sustained mean - reversion to old - school valuations, as the more bearishly inclined would predict.

This reversion to the mean can occur one of two ways (or a combination of both!)

I give Grantham credit for coming to this realization (something he has done before) but I wonder how his investors feel about it after years of playing the mean reversion waiting game.

Because of a rougher - looking schedule than in years (I mean, who really knows until halfway through the season — it was a big surprise to most that the AFCW wasn't tougher in 2017 for instance, or that the NYG would suck so epically), and no Shazier, and general reversion to the mean, and no particular reason to think Ben will be available for every game... I'll say 10 -5-1 with losses @ Tampa, @ Cin, Carolina, @ Denver, LAC.

In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45 % score for the Tories their previous poll.

The title has a sly double meaning, referring both to protagonist Léo's penchant for getting horizontal with nearly every person he encounters while tooling around the French countryside, seeking inspiration for a screenplay he never quite gets around to writing, and to the inherent difficulty of just being human, which Guiraudie imagines as a constant battle against reversion to an animal state.

With respect to students and test scores, reversion to the mean suggests that students with scores in the upper or lower tail of the test - score distribution are likely to perform closer to the average when tested more than once.

Why does the prospect of Reversion compromise Meyer and Berko's ability to solve their outstanding cases, and what does that possibility mean to both of them?

I continue to believe that rates will have to go up (e.g. reversion to the mean, reduce the «real» value of $ 20T in US debt, expiration of «conspiracy theory» suggesting the Fed held rates on the floor until the election to get Hillary elected, etc, etc)....

I believe # 5, incidentally, from your point of view, though I don't think I could call the erosion of competitive advantages of certain companies to be mean reversion, if and when it occurs.

What is more interesting is that the reversion happens a little faster, at a rate of 28.2 % / month, which means absent other disturbances, it closes half of the gap to the mean reversion target over 44 days.

Given the strength of the mean reversion effect in volatility, for the VIX to stay elevated for a long period of time requires a series of crises akin to what we had in 1998 - 2002.

Montier contended that proponents of the new normal also misunderstand fat tails, which are nothing new and which «create fat pitches» — the opportunities that investors seek to exploit through mean reversion strategies.

It's a matter of time that the fund either faces mean reversion or opens itself to the entire market cap.

He credits much of the success of the «formula» for this but attributes it to «reversion to the mean».

I trace my awakening to the dangers of mean reversion to the 2008 crisis but I believe that the signs of structural change were around me for at least a decade prior.

Whether you are leaning towards a style of value investing focused on reversion to the mean or the one focused on finding underappreciated compounders of capital, you will need to be able to understand what the future economics of the underlying business are likely to be.

The types of structural changes that can cause distribution to go awry range the spectrum, and the following is a list, albeit not comprehensive, of why these changes in the context of mean reversion over time.

The process of mean reversion is built on the presumption that the underlying distribution (whether it be a time series or cross sectional) is stationary and that while there may be big swings from year to year (or from company to company), the numbers revert back to a norm.

For mean reversion, the two best rankings I have found are 100 - day Historical Volatility (ranking from high to low) and Rate of Return (3,5,7 day) ranking from most sold off to least.

From years of research, this has been a good indicator use to measure short term mean reversion.

The strategeis are mean reversion, trend following and breakouts with average holds of a few days to a few months.

This trend matters to investors because rising valuation levels inflate past performance, reduce potential future performance, and amplify the risk of mean reversion to historical valuations.

You must train yourself to follow your system's rules no matter what and remember that the strength of a mean reversion system is the high probability thatmarkets will stay in a range.

Given the volatility of this income, this is a low value driver of NIM and should be looked at in a historical context when projecting into forward periods due to the likelihood of mean reversion.

In general for mean reversion adding any kind of stop seems to make the numbers worse.

Apparently your results reflect the strong uptrend of the market and can not be used to support mean reversion unless the series are properly detrended.