A mere moderation
of risk perception may be insufficient to justify active rejection of the science and of relevant policy options.
But there is ample research about the cognitive psychology
of risk perception to suggest that changing tack and supporting labeling could be the single most effective step you could take to build acceptance of this technology.
Frankly it's frustrating to listen to people on big soap boxes (Brooks, Gladwell, Revkin) speculating about all this, and lamenting our lack of reason about risk, and all but ignoring the immense amount of evidence that reveals the affective characteristics
of the risk perception process.
For some time I have been studying what smart people in various fields have discovered about the subjective / affective / instinctive process
of risk perception, which mostly gets risk right, but sometimes gets risk wrong in ways that create new risks all by itself — a phenomenon I have called The Perception Gap.
The psychology
of risk perception also confronts us with the reality that issues like climate change just don't ring our alarm bells.
These influential components
of risk perception psychology, of our Inconvenient Mind, identify opportunities to frame climate change in ways that are emotionally resonant to the audiences that climate communicators are trying to influence.
(See a piece I wrote on this in 2010, «The Importance
of Risk Perception for Effective Climate Change Communication.»)
The science of human behavior, particularly the psychology
of risk perception, robustly shows that we use two systems to make judgments about risk; reason and affect, facts and feelings.
Permit me to challenge two things; your simplistic description
of the risk perception psychology that explains why the public doesn't seem to care about such a huge threat, and more profoundly, the naive belief that public concern about climate change can make much difference.
No theory that focuses of generic or population - wide aspects of the psychology
of risk perception (so - called «main effects») can do that.
The psychology
of risk perception suggests that in many cases their reactions won't match the realities of the danger, and as a result, some of their choices and behaviors might not maximize their safety.
This is dangerous hubris, but a common phenomenon
of risk perception.
The most important reason is that secrecy is a key driver
of risk perception heuristics: When information is being withheld from us, we immediately assume the worst.
One of the areas emphasized by HSD in 2006 is decision - making, risk, and uncertainty, which includes studies
of risk perception, responses to hazards and extreme events, and the role played by educational systems in that response.
Not exact matches
Among the
risk factors listed in Freshii's prospectus, the company notes «investors» general
perception of us and the public's reactions to our press releases [and] open letters,» and cites the froyo missive.
According to an online experiment
of 2,338 Americans supported by the National Science Foundation, «introducing name calling into commentary tacked onto an otherwise balanced newspaper blog post, the study showed, could elicit either lower or higher
perceptions of risk, depending on one's predisposition to the science
of nanotechnology.»
This diminishes
perceptions of risk and accounts get leveraged.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number
of factors, including the
risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition in key markets; the
risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations in supply and demand; the
risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the
risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability to lower costs; the
risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the
risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the
risk that the economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix;
risks associated with the ramp - up
of production
of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those in which we have historically operated; the
risk that customers do not maintain their favorable
perception of our brand and products, resulting in lower demand for our products; the
risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall
of our products; ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability
of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments;
risks resulting from the concentration
of our business among few customers, including the
risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the
risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers
of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits
of the transaction; the
risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion
of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all
of which could negatively affect product demand; the
risk that our investments may experience periods
of significant stock price volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the
risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity
of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the
risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired;
risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization
of products under development, such as our pipeline
of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products
risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products;
risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development
of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack
of customer acceptance for our products;
risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
«One
of the reasons those very solid, very well - run companies are trading at discounts is because there is a general
perception the
risks are higher because
of poorer governance and lack
of transparency.»
«Trust in West Coast ports is at an all - time low, and the
perception of supply chain
risk is at an all - time high,» said Peter Tirschwell, chief maritime analyst at the JOC Group, a supplier
of U.S. sea - borne trade data.
Differences in firms» preparedness may reflect differences in the level
of effort required to achieve compliance, differences in the availability
of resources to undertake such efforts, differences in expectations about whether, how and when the Fiduciary Rule and PTEs might be revised, differences in
perceptions of and appetite for compliance and / or market
risk, or some combination
of these factors.
The most severe return /
risk profiles we identify have sometimes persisted for several months without a material market correction... The
perception of a Goldilocks economy may drag that out for a bit longer here, so again, we can't be impatient, and we'll take our evidence as it arrives.
But even among the best funds, few have topped the key threshold
of 16 %, fueling a nagging
perception that the rewards
of investing in the Asia - Pacific region are not making up for the
risks — at least not yet.
If stocks fall it can change your
perception of risk.
Consider these
risks before investing: The value
of securities in the fund's portfolio may fall or fail to rise over extended periods
of time for a variety
of reasons, including general financial market conditions, changing market
perceptions, changes in government intervention in the financial markets, and factors related to a specific issuer, industry, or sector and, in the case
of bonds,
perceptions about the
risk of default and expectations about changes in monetary policy or interest rates.
«Even just [investors»
perception of]
risk... could affect confidence, which affects growth expectations and investment.»
People's
perception of risk was fundamentally changed for decades.
Bonds are subject to the
risk that an issuer will fail to make payments on time and that bond prices will decline because
of rising interest rates or negative
perceptions of an issuer's ability to make payments.
There has been little change in the market's
perceptions of credit
risk during the past three months.
In contrast, skeptics would like to curb the BOJ's purchases, even at the
risk of perceptions of tightening, rising yen and plunging markets.
In recognizing the catalysts behind the public's persistence to save and reluctance to spend, additional analysis by policymakers should focus on the efficacy
of further rate cuts on spending and investment, as well as potential «roundabout» benefits
of a more normal rates regime to affirm support toward the public's saving objectives, with the end goal
of boosting public's
risk sentiment and
perceptions of future economic stability.
As such, those parties stressing the economy first and foremost will attempt to maintain the
perception that stronger environmental policies will place the livelihood
of Canadians at
risk.
Gold is a
risk - off investment and
perceptions of risk appear to be rising.
Bond funds are subject to interest rate
risk, which is the chance bond prices overall will decline because
of rising interest rates, and credit
risk, which is the chance a bond issuer will fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner or that negative
perceptions of the issuer's ability to make such payments will cause the price
of that bond to decline.
Far from the
perception that many don't, most investors and even those who end up buying Aggressive Growth Funds have considered Large Cap Mutual Funds as a safe bet before deciding they're more
of the
risk loving folks.
While some
of the yuan's weakness can be attributed to investors» concerns about China's slowing economy and latent
risks in its financial system, there is also a growing
perception that the Chinese central bank has been proactively undermining expectations for the yuan to relentlessly appreciate.
The most interesting part
of the seminar, however, was probably when Mr Miles spoke about Mr Buffett's
perception of risk.
The following is an excerpt from the research article «Volatility
of an Impossible Object:
Risk, Fear, and Safety in Games
of Perception» from Artemis Capital Management LLC.
The discussion explored how women are challenged by pay inequity, the
perception of being too ambitious and by company policies and culture that leave many women who are mothers averse to taking
risks.
The volatility
of an impossible object is your own changing
perception of risk.
Sharing his knowledge
of Mr Buffett's investment strategies at ShareInvestor's fifth annual Invest Fair 2011, Mr Miles conducted a workshop - styled seminar where he debunked popular
perceptions of risk and shared with the audience how emotions can be contagious, especially in affecting one's investment decisions.
The premia on credit default swaps, an alternative measure
of credit
risk perceptions, have risen.
Designation as an emerging market is determined by a number
of factors, such as gross domestic product per capita; local government regulations; perceived investment
risk; foreign ownership limits and capital controls; or the general
perception by the investment community when determining an «emerging» classification
of a market.
Spreads between corporate bond yields and swap rates, which are a measure
of the market's credit
risk perceptions, have fallen slightly since the previous Statement (Graph 43).
The likelihood
of risk using our definition is always highest at the point where the general
perception of risk is lowest» Christopher Bloomstran
Examples
of these
risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the impact
of: adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing levels
of unemployment, underemployment and the volatility
of fuel prices, declines in the securities and real estate markets, and
perceptions of these conditions that decrease the level
of disposable income
of consumers or consumer confidence; adverse events impacting the security
of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts
of piracy, and other international events; the
risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally; our expansion into and investments in new markets; breaches in data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks; the spread
of epidemics and viral outbreaks; adverse incidents involving cruise ships; changes in fuel prices and / or other cruise operating costs; any impairment
of our tradenames or goodwill; our hedging strategies; our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage; our substantial indebtedness, including the ability to raise additional capital to fund our operations, and to generate the necessary amount
of cash to service our existing debt; restrictions in the agreements governing our indebtedness that limit our flexibility in operating our business; the significant portion
of our assets pledged as collateral under our existing debt agreements and the ability
of our creditors to accelerate the repayment
of our indebtedness; volatility and disruptions in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit
risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; overcapacity in key markets or globally; our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss
of key personnel; future changes relating to how external distribution channels sell and market our cruises; our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services to certain ships and certain other services; delays in our shipbuilding program and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments; future increases in the price
of, or major changes or reduction in, commercial airline services; seasonal variations in passenger fare rates and occupancy levels at different times
of the year; our ability to keep pace with developments in technology; amendments to our collective bargaining agreements for crew members and other employee relation issues; the continued availability
of attractive port destinations; pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions; changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes in which we operate; and other factors set forth under «
Risk Factors» in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and subsequent filings by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
I'd hate there to be any
risk of the
perception that the LGBT community was being used as a front for a religious adulterous straight person's agenda.
As David Kinnaman, president
of the Barna Group warns, Evangelicals
risk being perceived as anti-gay: «The anti-homosexual
perception was the «big» one; the
perception that overshadowed all else....
Whitehead
risks this double crisis in scientific study by presuming from this point on that our experience
of reality issues concretely in a flow
of «
perceptions, sensations, and emotions,» and that we are induced only by the forms
of order in our thought to fancy that we have an immediate experience
of a «neat, trim, tidy, exact world» (OT 109, 110).
One major
risk is the disparity between the
perception (3rd) and performance (35th)
of the environment ranking.85