According to some estimates, two merchant ships a month disappear without a trace, thought to be victims
of rogue waves.
«New prediction tool gives warning
of rogue waves.»
The birth
of rogue waves can be physically explained through the modulation instability of water waves.
A comparative analysis
of rogue waves in different physical systems comes to the surprising conclusion that these rare events are not completely unpredictable.
The precise origin
of rogue waves is still disputed.
Over the next few years, Osborne and others hope to offer ship captains reports on the likelihood
of rogue waves appearing in certain regions.
«The space - time model developed for this study could provide the basis for the next generation of wave forecast models to predict wave extremes and provide early warnings to shipping companies and others to help them avoid dangerous areas at risk
of rogue waves,» Fedele said.
A new analysis done to support the investigation into the 2015 sinking of the El Faro cargo ship has calculated the likelihood of a massive rogue wave during Hurricane Joaquin in October of that year — and demonstrated a new technique for evaluating the probability
of rogue waves over space and time.
«We believe this first study
of rogue waves occurring over space and time during hurricanes will help improve real - time forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk of extreme events in the oceans.»
The research, reported September 11 in the journal Scientific Reports, may help improve the prediction
of rogue waves to help shipping companies and others understand the risks posed by these unusual wave patterns.
The El Faro was 240 meters long, comparable to the typical wavelength
of a rogue wave.
Although many buoys are now supplied with electronic transmitters and high - tech electronics, the likelihood of one being in the path
of a rogue wave is small.
One of Osborne's favorite descriptions
of a rogue wave is from Virgil's Aeneid: «A squall came howling from the north - east, catching the sail full on, raising the waves to the stars, breaking the oars in a single blow, wrenching the boat around to offer its flank to the waves as a mountain of water rose above them, immense and immeasurable.
In the end, Fedele said, the production
of the rogue wave is simply chance: the rare combination of waves in what turns out to be a bad place for ships or oil platforms.
By tracking the energy of the surrounding wave field over this length - scale, they could immediately calculate the probability
of a rogue wave developing.
As our ferry is slammed into the Adriatic by the force
of a rogue wave, we are all relieved to catch a glimpse of the approaching shoreline and the sail boats dotted around the harbour of Split, signalling our imminent arrival into this ancient city.
Not exact matches
Breakthrough ideas ripple across time, as Where Good Ideas Come From author Steven Johnson says, rather than occur in an enormous
rogue wave from out
of nowhere.
That sounds bad, but people really like constant positive reinforcement, selling these options that expire out
of the money, and they figure the
rogue wave will never happen to them.
Sara White had been walking across the road with her son in his stroller when a
rogue wave came out
of nowhere and crashed into them, dragging them across the road as water continued to flood their way.
This relation
of the Schrödinger equation to classical
waves is already revealed in the way that a variant called the nonlinear Schrödinger equation is commonly used to describe other classical
wave systems — for example in optics and even in ocean
waves, where it provides a mathematical picture
of unusually large and robust «
rogue waves.»
Eventually,
of course, his conversation turns to the fear that lurks in the consciousness
of every sailor who ventures into these waters: the
rogue wave scenario.
Scientists think that a perfect combination
of events may be responsible for generating
rogue waves.
Using weather and sea data from the time
of the sinking, along with a new theoretical model, a Georgia Institute
of Technology researcher has calculated that there was as much as a one - in - 130 chance — over a period
of time and area — that a
rogue wave 46 feet high (14 meters) could have occurred during the hurricane.
Key to the new prediction technique is accounting for space - time effects that can increase the likelihood
of a ship encountering a
rogue wave.
In future work, the researchers would like to improve the accuracy
of their predictions to enhance the
rogue wave prediction algorithms used by NOAA.
Earlier
rogue wave models had not considered the size
of the vessel in calculating the probability
of encountering a potentially catastrophic
wave.
The
rogue wave study was done for the National Transportation Safety Board as part
of its investigation into the disaster.
«
Rogue wave analysis supports investigation
of the El Faro sinking.»
They can make big
waves, but not ones that rise — as
rogue waves do — three to five times as high as the
waves around them and seem to come out
of nowhere, out
of sync with the rest
of the sea, from a direction completely different from that
of the wind and other
waves.
In a
wave tank at the Stevens Institute
of Technology in Hoboken, New Jersey, a three - foot - long model ship is effortlessly capsized by a simulated
rogue wave.
rogue waves can remain hidden behind a background
of random
waves (blue and green), only to rise up with sudden violence.
This is the basis
of Fourier analysis, the mathematical technique at the heart
of rogue -
wave research, in which complicated
wave patterns are broken down into their constituent parts.
Stephen Ornes's article about
rogue waves suggested that up to half
of these
waves result from «crossing seas» in which...
Some sailors navigating far south, in the latitudes around the «furious fifties», have also reported observing «towers
of water», perhaps the result
of two
rogue waves running into each other.
The U.S. Coast Guard considers
rogue waves so rare that it doesn't even keep records
of their occurrence.
«These large spikes are the
rogues jumping out
of a deepwater
wave field,» Osborne says.
Called
rogues or freaks, such
waves are the stuff
of mariners» nightmares — towering, steep - faced walls
of water that weigh millions
of tons.
This might explain the lack
of observation and the ignorance
of such phenomenon as a consequence, even though they must be as frequent as the
rogue waves.
Subsequent camera snapshots
of a measured
rogue wave event.
Other than in previous publications, optical
rogue waves in this system are clearly ruled by atmospheric turbulence in a gas cell, effectively enabling the observation
of a storm in a test tube.
Therefore it is not true that they «appear out
of nowhere and leave without a trace,» which has often been claimed to be a characteristic feature
of ocean
rogue waves.
An improved understanding
of how
rogue waves originate could lead to improved techniques for identifying ocean areas likely to spawn them, allowing shipping companies to avoid dangerous seas.
«What we have shown is that by combining knowledge
of this spectra and using mathematics that accounts for second - order nonlinearities, we can reproduce the measured
rogue waves almost exactly.»
Based on an analysis
of three
rogue waves observed at different oil platforms in the North Sea over the course
of a decade, the research was scheduled to be reported June 21 in the journal Scientific Reports.
This technique, which is currently applied in the field
of photonics, could help predict
rogue wave events1 on the ocean surface, along with other extreme natural phenomena.
The scope
of these results goes well beyond the field
of photonics, since this type
of background noise is generally considered to be one
of the possible mechanisms behind the destructive
rogue waves that suddenly appear on the surface
of oceans, and is also believed to be present in other systems such as plasma dynamics in the early Universe.
For a couple
of years, the research team around Professor Chabchoub has already been able to create steered
rogue waves in laboratory
wave flumes.
First, they spotted clusters
of waves that tend to roll along together, then they analyzed each cluster's length and height, and they finally used a combination
of statistics and dynamical equations to determine which
of those clusters was most likely to go
rogue.
Rogue waves loom large among the many legends
of the sea.
They then developed a novel approach to analyze the nonlinear dynamics
of the system and predict which
wave groups will evolve into extreme
rogue waves.