According to Simms, «in just 100 months» time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings
of runaway climate change.
This is an interesting question — if 2 degrees of warming represents an unacceptable risk
of a runaway climate and global collapse, how much risk do we want to take?
We're afraid of what the police might do to us, we're afraid of going to jail but nothing scares us as much as the threat
of runaway climate change.
It is the real danger
of a runaway climate, that commenters should be aware of!!!
... if you look at the implications of climate change,
of runaway climate change, we are literally talking about millions and millions of people dying, we are literally talking about famines, and flooding, and migration and disease on an unprecedented scale.
In the last billions of years there is no indication
of a runaway climate due too CO2 why would there be one now.
A 2015 study concluded that in order to avoid the worst impacts
of runaway climate change, all Arctic fossil fuels should be classified as unburnable.
About 1980ish, some old ideas like the greenhouse effect were brought out of mothballs and re-examined with new tools and techniques; simultaneously several researchers and theoreticians released their notes, published, or otherwise got together and there was a surprising consilience and not a small amount of mixing with old school hippy ecologism on some of the topics that became the roots of Climate Change science (before it was called Global Warming); innovations in mathematics were also applied to climate thought; supercomputers (though «disappointing» on weather forecasting) allowed demonstration of plausibility
of runaway climate effects, comparison of scales of effects, and the possibility of climate models combined with a good understanding of the limits of predictive power of weather models.
«In our era
of runaway climate change, it's critical for the Supreme Court to stop these outdated monopolies from abusing the law and trying to strangle renewable - energy development.»
The Paleocene - Eocene thermal maximum also points to the possibility
of runaway climate change enhanced by feedbacks.
... that to have just a 50 % chance of staying below the threshold
of runaway climate catastrophe — which is a 2 degree Celsius rise global temperatures — ...
The idea that the sunny weather they enjoy may be a harbinger
of runaway climate change, that their beloved happy meal hamburgers are responsible for the release of dangerous methane gases and the unjust monopolization of vital water sources, and that the plastic refuse from their picnics might end up endangering the dolphins they idolize from afar — well, it's a lot to lay on a child who's still not old enough to see the latest
The idea that the sunny weather they enjoy may be a harbinger
of runaway climate change, that their beloved happy meal hamburgers are responsible for the release of dangerous methane gases and the unjust monopolization of vital water sources, and that the plastic refuse from their picnics might end up endangering the dolphins they idolize from afar — well, it's a lot to lay on a child who's still not old enough to see the latest Star Wars.
Not exact matches
Democrats, environmentalists, and other protesters demonstrated outside the White House after Trump signed the executive order in March, declaring it would lead to
runaway climate change, while many Republican members
of Congress applauded the action for promoting energy independence.
«Trump has pledged to take actions to round up and deport millions
of Americans, decimate unions, take health care coverage away from millions, threaten women's reproductive rights, and allow
runaway climate change to continue — all while deregulating the economy and cutting taxes for the wealthy.
Climate scientists tell us that to keep the rise
of global temperature above the pre-industrial level at below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in order to avoid
runaway global warming, the world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent per year starting in 2020.
U.S. Energy Policy must be guided by two intertwined goals: guaranteeing the security
of the nation's energy supply and limiting
runaway climate change.
Yang, J., F. Ding, R.M. Ramirez, W.R. Peltier, Y. Hu & Y. Liu, Abrupt
climate transition
of icy worlds from snowball to moist or
runaway greenhouse, Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo2994, 2017
Climate forecasts have long noted that every increase in global temperature heightens the odds
of runaway global warming, beyond any human control.
«The world has just ten years to reverse surging greenhouse gas emissions or risk
runaway climate change that could make many parts
of the planet uninhabitable.»
A compelling
Climate Fiction trilogy set against a backdrop
of runaway global warming... a love story in a hotter, more dangerous world
Early signs
of scientific discomfort with some allusions to
climate - related tipping points came in a 2006 blog post, «
Runaway Tipping Points
of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt
of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
This article minimizes what credibly could be the largest challenge in dealing with
climate change: Holding the atmosphere to a CO2 content no greater than 450 PPM to prevent an increase
of no more than 2 degrees C, beyond which
runaway growth in CO2 could occur from natural sources.
The most extreme risk envisioned in all
climate studies is surely a
runaway greenhouse effect, in which human activities cause a buildup
of CO2 to a level (ca. 1400 ppm).
Past mass extinctions caused by
runaway GW (then, obviously, triggered by a convergence
of natural events), resulting in few left to breath out CO2 (among other constraints), leading to stabilization and retreat back to a
climate more hospitable to a wide range
of biota.
With an 80 % reduction in GHGs by 2050 we have a 50 % chance
of dangerous
climate change or
runaway global warming.
Maybe inclusion
of CH4 and a sufficient
climate sensitivity from the other feedbacks would make it
runaway for some part (maybe not all)
of the process.
Note that there is no inherent warning
of a
runaway greenhouse in
climate patterns.
Leading
climate scientists believe that maintaining carbon dioxide levels in excess
of 350 ppm will result in
runaway global warming with catastrophic impacts to humans, wildlife and ecosystems.
(There are equilibrium
climates between the points where the
runaway starts and where it ends, but they are unstable equilibria, and the equilibrium coverage
of snow / ice increases with forcing that would cause warming.)
(Within the range where water vapor feedback is
runaway, zero change in external forcing»cause s» a large change in
climate; the equilibrium surface temperature, graphed over some measure
of external forcing, takes a step at some particular value.)
Once the ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium
climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in response to
climate changes, but this is generally very slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes from faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a
runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out
of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
Thus, the media articles about 1970s
climate science should read «Scientists warned
of runaway deglaciation in the early 1970s», shouldn't they?
«Christiana Figueres, a former United Nations
climate chief, predicts that we have only three years left to «bend the [carbon] emissions curve downward» and mitigate a series
of runaway global catastrophes.»
Berger provides useful context from Andrew Dessler, a
climate scientist at Texas A&M University, who noted that most people publishing on this question have long seen very low odds
of runaway or extreme warming:
This has been reinforced with increasing urgency by scientists around the world, with US
climate scientist James Hansen this week publishing a paper highlighting that «conceivable levels
of human - made
climate forcing could yield the low - end
runaway greenhouse effect» including «out -
of - control amplifying feedbacks such as ice sheet disintegration and melting
of methane hydrates».
The sudden release
of large amounts
of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits in
runaway climate change could be a cause
of past, future, and present
climate changes.
As a non-scientist, it is reassuring that releases
of Arctic methane should not force an apocalyptic
runaway warming event, although the effects will still have very nasty consequences for our presently comfortable
climate.
You can think
of the Earth's
climate (unlike Venus») as having an «r «less than one, i.e. no «
runaway» effects, but plenty
of positive feedbacks.
[9] Randers is more precise, and predicts that we will by 2052 wake to find ourselves on a dark and frightening shore, knowing full well that our planet is irrevocably «on its way towards
runaway climate change in the last third
of the twenty - first century.»
The whole crux
of the CO2 issue is that it crystallises our fears for the future and provides a pressure point which might force political action if CO2 can be linked to something as potentially disastrous as a
runaway unnatural change in global
climate.
Some people might prefer China's urban
climates which are prime examples
of runaway coal.
In fact if a strong self sustaining unforced warming
of the oceans as we have seen, around 0.8 W / M ^ 2 does exist, the
climate of the earth would be in the process
of an unstable
runaway condition.
I am convinced next Monday there will be a newspaper explaining the cold and the snow was caused by» extremely dangerous human induced
runaway global warming as the driver
of climate change».
You continued, «In fact if a strong self sustaining unforced warming
of the oceans as we have seen, around 0.8 W / M ^ 2 does exist, the
climate of the earth would be in the process
of an unstable
runaway condition.»
One
of the biggest debates between sceptics and their counterparts is in fact the role played by feedback mechanisms — a response in part to claims by environmentalists such as Mark Lynas in «Six Degrees: our future on a hotter planet» that a relatively small increase in CO2 could cause «
runaway climate change» by triggering (unknown and possibly non-existent) feedback mechanisms to form.
Both nations will have to get more aggressive and specific if there is any hope
of keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the point at which
climate change will likely become a
runaway feedback loop.
Technology will advance far enough during that time to make the issue
of runaway warming or
climate change tipping points from human greenhouse gas emissions moot historical footnotes.
Two
of this summer's biggest movies so far are «The Age
of Ultron», where the villain is a
runaway artificial intelligence, and the Mad Max sequel, «Fury Road», set in a
climate altered future.
The United States has a problem:
runaway climate change, which will degrade or damage agriculture, biodiversity, coastal cities, and the social politics
of some
of the most volatile regions
of the world.