Sentences with phrase «of scenario uncertainty»

They fail to understand the broader dimensions of scenario uncertainty as well as the existence of flat out ignorance on a number of topics, plus the ambiguity associated with arguments for the warming made from the perspective of natural variability.

Not exact matches

Along with Garcia, dozens of Dreamers have started their own companies since coming to the U.S., and the uncertainty surrounding the DACA program has them girding for losses and, in the worst - case scenario, deportation.

Between late 2016 and early 2017, Bentham's team put together four scenarios to try to help make sense of how Shell might navigate the radical uncertainty.

«Although it's possible to think about scenarios and plan for several possible outcomes, I think it's extremely difficult for companies of all sorts to make concrete plans right now with this amount of uncertainty,» she said.

It added that «the effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario.»

The EPA denied the resource consent on the basis of the uncertainties and was not convinced the applicant's proposed conditions and adaptive management scenarios would ensure sustainable development (See the executive summary of the decision here).

It was smooth sailing through the end of February, and then a series of scenarios converged onto the investing landscape, creating large potholes of uncertainty that took a significant toll on short - term investor sentiment.

In making such decisions under conditions of uncertainty (Ruth Macklin calls them conditions of ignorance), the construction of best - possible and worst - possible scenarios will probably depend in no small part on the basic orientation of the individuals constructing them.

The authors note that cost - benefit analyses of sustainable land management scenarios «can be done even with limited data availability, «and underscore that, despite an inevitable degree of uncertainty, «it is imperative to take action now, as every day sees the loss of more productive land that will have to be gained back.»

Instead, most modelers accommodate the inevitable uncertainties by averaging over many runs of each scenario and displaying a likely range of outcomes, much like landfall forecasts for hurricanes.

Modeling future climate scenarios is a notoriously tricky science, involving wide margins of uncertainty, myriad variables and a profusion of data.

Next the pair calculate what happens if they loosen the limits of the uncertainty principle in this scenario, allowing the messages to be better decoded and letting you access information that you wouldn't have had when the uncertainty principle was in force.

But, they argued, this scenario violated the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, which said that it's impossible to know both the position and momentum of a particle at the same time [because the act of measuring one instantly and unavoidably changes the other].

Remember the job interview scenario: You can reduce some of the uncertainty by preparing for your interview.

Even the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sees clouds as the greatest uncertainty factor in the climate scenarios of the future.

Large uncertainties were caused by the GMSLR scenario and sediment size; however, the minimum projected rate of beach loss was 18 % in the near future, and this rate of loss is expected to have significant implications for coastal management.

«There is no single forensic tool that is useful in all scenarios, as all have some degree of uncertainty,» said Metcalf.

As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed warming» will occur in the future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding of these processes.

Structured expert judgment has been used for decades in fields where scenarios have high degrees of uncertainty, most notably nuclear - energy generation, Oppenheimer explained.

On time - scales of a few decades, the current observed rate of warming can be used to constrain the projected response to a given emissions scenario despite uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

As acknowledged in an Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics report on climate change scenarios, also released on Monday, there are still considerable scientific uncertainties surrounding the nature and extent of future climate change.

As we mentioned briefly, that leads to a «sweet spot» for forecasting of a couple of decades into the future where the initial condition uncertainty dies away, but the uncertainty in the emission scenario is not yet so large as to be dominating.

This could be used for more uncertainty runs, having larger ensembles, exploring a wider range of types of scenarios.

It's not necessarily obvious to the uninitiated what a huge effect this ~ 2ºC uncertainty in ECS estimates has on scenarios that attempt to predict the magnitude and timing of climate change impacts (e.g. the AR5 RCPs).

Woody's rollercoaster of excitement and confliction resonate with human uncertainty about growing older, leaving one place behind, or having to choose between two desirable scenarios.

The Department will communicate scientific and technological findings by including a clear explanation of underlying assumptions, including accurate contextualization of uncertainties, and describing the probabilities associated with both optimistic and pessimistic projections, including best - case and worst - case scenarios where appropriate.

Scenario II: Deferred tax assets (with expiration dates of up to 20 years) of $ 36 M have not been recognised in respect of US losses, due to uncertainty regarding their utilisation.

The Norwegian - born and Berlin - based artist follows up Dubious Desire for Cleanliness at Rod Barton and Consume Meaning and Wash Away the Stains of uncertainty at Come over Chez Malik's, as well as a contribution to New Scenario's C R A S H group exhibition with a new solo exhibition at the Berlin space.

All these factors and many more combine uncertainties resulting in different scenarios of change — each potentially likely to occur.

Our results show that the only way in our scenarios to achieve the 1.5 °C target in the presence of SIAF would be through negative emissions, which imply more risks and uncertainties for the future [Rogelj et al., 2015; Hansen et al., 2016].

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

Of course, on a timescale of one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenariOf course, on a timescale of one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenariof one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.

The magnitude and timing of this emission scenario is unconstrained due to large uncertainties in estimating future rates of cryosphere degradation, hydrocarbon reservoir response, and potential methane oxidation.

He also gives the distinct impression that the majority of the scientific community thinks this is a plausible scenario, and without any reference to the relevant uncertainties and timescales.

The most we can hope for, given the high uncertainties, is a range of plausible scenarios or projections for any given region.

Even if the SRES scenarios have some bias, it's more or less lost in the noise of other uncertainties.

It's not necessarily obvious to the uninitiated what a huge effect this ~ 2ºC uncertainty in ECS estimates has on scenarios that attempt to predict the magnitude and timing of climate change impacts (e.g. the AR5 RCPs).

The trends for the period 1984 to 2010 (the 1984 date chosen because that is when these projections started), scenario B has a trend of 0.27 + / -0.05 ºC / dec (95 % uncertainties, no correction for auto - correlation).

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

Over the short time scales considered, the model uncertainty is larger than the uncertainty coming from the choice of emission scenario; for sea level it completely dominates the uncertainty (see e.g. the graphs in our Science paper).

When comparing with alternative models of plant physiological processes, we find that the largest uncertainties are associated with plant physiological responses, and then with future emissions scenarios.

So if I understand things correctly, the IPCC «scenarios» show a range of global temperature values due to the uncertainties of future forcings.

Pielke compares single scenarios of IPCC, without mentioning the uncertainty range.

Note that such an ice dynamic uncertainty was only included for Greenland but not for Antarctica; instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a scenario considered «very unlikely» in the TAR, was explicitly not included in the upper limit of 88 cm.

However if the uncertainty is of the same order as the signal in the forecast (scenario if you will) then the meaning of the forecast is pretty much nil.

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

(Another fine point: This is slightly less than the central estimate of 43 cm for the A1FI scenario that was reported in the media, taken from earlier drafts of the SPM, because those 43 cm was not the sum of the individual best estimates for the different contributing factors, but rather it was the mid-point of the uncertainty range, which is slightly higher as some uncertainties are skewed towards high values.)

Since 1990, observed sea level has followed the uppermost uncertainty limit of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the highest emission scenario combined with the highest climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty» (1).

In the rekognition of the uncertainties, the IPCC Good - Practice - Guidance - Paper on using climate model results offers some wise advice (first bullet point under section 3.5 on p. 10): the local climate change scenarios should be based on (i) historical change, (ii) process change (e.g. changes in the driving circulation), (iii) global climate change projected by GCMs, and (iv) downscaled projected change.