[Andy Revkin — On Arctic ice trends, I have a post coming shortly on the latest update from the world's leading teams
of sea ice experts, showing this year's retreat is unlikely to match last year's, while the long - term trend is still heading toward ever less summer ice.
Not exact matches
Taking the perma out
of permafrost Arctic
sea ice continues to shrink, with
experts predicting an
ice - free Arctic by as early as 2020.
«The base driver
of sea ice melt ultimately is anthropogenic greenhouse gases,» Walt Meier, an Arctic
expert at NASA, said.
Dr. Barber and his team
of experts were able to use the state -
of - the - art equipment onboard the Amundsen to confirm that a significant proportion
of the
sea ice present originated from the high Arctic.
«Based on the UN climate panel's report on
sea level rise, supplemented with an
expert elicitation about the melting
of the
ice sheets, for example, how fast the
ice on Greenland and Antarctica will melt while considering the regional changes in the gravitational field and land uplift, we have calculated how much the
sea will rise in Northern Europe,» explains Aslak Grinsted.
«The Arctic is clearly experiencing the impacts
of a prolonged and intensified warming trend,» said the report's co-editor, Jackie Richter - Menge, a
sea ice expert at the Army Corps
of Engineers» Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H.
«The primary uncertainty in
sea level rise is what are the
ice sheets going to do over the coming century,» said Mathieu Morlighem, an
expert in
ice sheet modeling at the University
of California, Irvine, who led the paper along with dozens
of other contributors from institutions around the world.
The articles contained in this collection remind us
of an epoch when
experts debated whether the North Pole was surrounded by an inland
sea that could be sailed; a thick, smooth
ice sheet that could be easily traversed by a sleigh; or — as proved to be the case, to the dismay
of explorers and the fascination
of scientists — devastatingly unstable stretches
of open water within fields
of shifting
sea ice.
In the past 15 years, the oceans have warmed, the amount
of snow and
ice has diminished and
sea levels have risen, explains Lisa Goddard, an
expert in climate variability at Columbia University.
By Kenneth Richard Geophysicist and tectonics
expert Dr. Aftab Khan has unearthed a massive fault in the current understanding
of (1) rapid
sea level rise and its fundamental relation to (2) global - scale warming / polar
ice melt.
Just last year, for example, the UK had its second - coldest March since records began, prompting the Met Office to call a rapid response meeting
of experts to get to grips with whether melting Arctic
sea -
ice could be affecting British weather.
But
experts see the «dangerous» question — how fast and far will
seas rise — being more a function
of non-linear puzzles like the herky - jerky acceleration from this process or from the uncorking that occurs when coastal blockades
of ice give way.
Leading
ice experts in Europe and the United States for the first time have agreed that a ring
of navigable waters has opened all around the fringes
of the cap
of sea ice drifting on the warming Arctic Ocean.
[UPDATE, 7/17: Here are the latest
sea -
ice forecasts
of a variety
of Arctic
experts.]
Here's an interesting thought for the
ice experts, maybe Andy could pick this up, since he's done a very decent job
of following up on my question: I've read suggestions that increased
sea emissivity from the Arctic waters would gain relative to the loss
of albedo from increasingly
ice - free
seas.
Professor Peter Wadhams, member
of AMEG,
expert on Arctic
sea ice and a reviewer for the IPCC AR5 report, says that the PIOMAS data is based on actual thickness measurements.
I've freshly canvassed more than a dozen
sea -
ice experts to get their latest views on whether the remarkable Arctic
ice retreat
of last summer will be matched this year.
In online science discussions, the fate
of this years summer
sea ice has been the focus
of a significant betting pool, a test
of expert prediction skills, and a week - by - week (almost) running commentary.
Polar
experts are starting to place their bets on the fate
of the thin veneer
of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, and quite a few are forecasting even more open water this summer than last.
In an experimental cross-check, more than a dozen teams
of polar
ice experts tried issuing experimental forecasts
of the
sea ice as conditions evolved through the spring and summer.
Here is what he wrote: «As global levels
of sea ice declined last year, many
experts said this was evidence
of man - made global warming.»
(Note that Mr. Will questioned my use
of that «many
experts» shorthand, but used it himself; down below I'll later list some
of the many
experts I've consulted on
sea ice over the last decade.)
Arctic Ocean
Ice The latest summary of experts» projections for this summer's retreat of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean is out, and — partly because of different weather patterns than last year — the consensus for the moment is that the remarkable ice loss in 2007 will not be matched this ye
Ice The latest summary
of experts» projections for this summer's retreat
of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean is out, and — partly because of different weather patterns than last year — the consensus for the moment is that the remarkable ice loss in 2007 will not be matched this ye
ice on the Arctic Ocean is out, and — partly because
of different weather patterns than last year — the consensus for the moment is that the remarkable
ice loss in 2007 will not be matched this ye
ice loss in 2007 will not be matched this year.
I sent the note to an array
of sea -
ice experts, and many, including Mark Serreze at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, concurr
ice experts, and many, including Mark Serreze at the National Snow and
Ice Data Center, concurr
Ice Data Center, concurred.
The same
sea -
ice experts foreseeing a new record retreat
of the Arctic Ocean coverage this summer have explanations for the flow between Greenland and Iceland, too.]
Seasoned
experts on Antarctic
ice say there is plenty
of reason for concern, given that warming waters could continue freeing up the
ice sheets for centuries to come, leading to relentlessly rising
seas.
In late August, a Reuters story began with «a thaw
of Antarctic
ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world
sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100, a leading
expert said.»
Science Daily: Arctic Nearly Free
of Summer
Sea Ice During First Half
of 21st Century,
Experts Predict.
Models created by
experts said such a dramatic loss
of sea ice would cause a sharp drop in the polar bear population and threaten their very survival.
I was very fortunate to be able to attend this meeting, and talking to the
experts there was critical to understanding the behaviour
of air temperatures over
sea ice - this led to section 5 in the paper and our more recent update.
«The Aqua satellite will tell us about water in all
of its forms,» said Dr. Claire Parkinson, a
sea ice expert and Aqua project scientist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., which is in charge
of the program.
An
expert judgement assessment
of future
sea level rise from the
ice sheets.
Experts with the National Snow and
Ice Data Center say formation of sea ice around the Arctic Ocean probably petered out about two weeks a
Ice Data Center say formation
of sea ice around the Arctic Ocean probably petered out about two weeks a
ice around the Arctic Ocean probably petered out about two weeks ago.
An international team
of experts supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data from multiple satellites and aircraft to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date
of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to
sea level rise.
My first encounter with
sea ice and Antarctica's jagged coastline came last August, when I joined a group
of experts on a U.S. National Science Foundation research vessel for a monthlong voyage to the Antarctic Peninsula.
The central value
of his estimate falls in the remaining four years
of this decade, and are widely considered by
sea ice experts to be utterly implausible.
Too many people (climate scientists (non
sea ice experts), a few
sea ice experts, and alarmed AGW advocates and many in the media hype the arctic
sea ice spiral
of death (google turns up 409K mentions).
Already the expedition is around 4 to 6 weeks behind schedule having been held up in the Laptev
Sea by the kind
of ice which
experts like Cambridge University's Peter Wadhams —
of whom more in a moment — assure us will soon disappear permanently from the Arctic in summer.
---- I come to CE specifically because
of Judith's
expert opinions and if
sea ice and Arctic dynamics were linear her «50 % or less» estimate might be about right.
So when Dr. C mentions «about half» with a fairly large margin
of error, it would appear her «
expert» opinion on Arctic
Sea Ice is worth consideration.
``... when Dr. C mentions «about half» with a fairly large margin
of error, it would appear her «
expert» opinion on Arctic
Sea Ice is worth consideration.»
«In previous summers, some
of the [multi-year
ice] migrated over to the Alaska and Siberia areas where it melted,» Dr. Don Perovich, a
sea -
ice expert at Dartmouth College, told BBC News.
I come to CE specifically because
of Judith's
expert opinions and if
sea ice and Arctic dynamics were linear her «50 % or less» estimate might be about right.
The First SEARCH Knowledge Exchange Workshop gathered 33 invited
experts to discuss impacts
of sea -
ice loss on:
The approach to the
Sea Ice Outlook is a modified Delphi Method (i.e., using questionnaire responses from a panel
of indendent
experts) that: (1) samples independent
expert opinion and rationale on an issue, (2) communicates the results, and (3) iterates on the process with feedback from the
expert participants.
Note the thick
ice in the CAA — what USGS
experts call the «Archipelago»
sea ice ecoregion (denoted by white in the map), indicating
ice about 1 metre thick (2 - 3 feet)-- expected to remain at the height
of summer in 2030.
The Scotsman
of August 29, under the title «Arctic
sea ice will vanish within three years, says
expert», reports:
Screen, an
expert on how the melting
sea ice affects the path
of weather systems around the Northern Hemisphere, said that the regional distribution
of ice decline is important.
As the video warns,
experts with NASA and various other professional institutions have already determined that the water trapped as Greenland's
ice could effectively raise the height
of the world's
seas by a whopping 23 feet (7m)- that is, if it ALL melted into the ocean.
Most
experts, and the International Union
of Conservation
of Nature and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, believe that polar bears are threatened because the Arctic
sea ice from which the bears hunt is disappearing due to global warming.