These C3S products are derived from the DUACS delayed - time altimeter gridded maps
of sea level anomalies based on a stable number of altimeters (two) in the satellite constellation.
Part of that leftover warm water (a Rossby wave) is captured in the following animation
of sea level anomalies from JPL.
Climatologies
of sea level anomalies (> 0.05 m) and daily - mean storm surges (> 0.3 m) are presented for the 1960 — 2010 cool seasons (October — April) along the East Coast of the United States.
Not exact matches
Both El Niños show
sea level anomalies of up to 8 inches across the eastern tropical Pacific (and corresponding drops in other parts
of the ocean basin).
Together these influences drove exceptional moisture transports into the continent's interior (Fig. 3a) and were likely responsible for one
of the wettest intervals in Australia's recorded history, the intensity and persistence
of its terrestrial storage
anomaly, and a considerable fraction
of the global
sea level response.
A reconstruction
of extratropical Indo - Pacific
sea -
level pressure patterns during the Medieval Climate
Anomaly.
Why would the DERIVATIVE
of the
sea level be similar to the temperature
anomaly when (at least according to the IPCC report, the
sea level rise is largely due to the thermal expansion
of the oceans (1.6 + -0.5 mm / yr).
Mike's work, like that
of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use
of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth
of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role
of solar variations in explaining the pattern
of the Medieval Climate
Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes
of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global
sea level, and even a bit
of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis
of beryllium - 7 measurements).
iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH
sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH
anomaly trend is small (the
anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 %
of the mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 %
level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens
of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.
At the same time, the GRACE gravitational -
anomaly satellites, the most accurate method
of measurement we have, showed
sea level actually falling from 2003 — 2009.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
Here we examine how sensitive the SAM (defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function
of SH
sea level pressure
anomalies) is to future GHG concentrations.
In general, indices
of the annular modes are based on either 1) the leading principal component (PC) time series
of gridded geopotential height
anomalies at a given pressure
level or 2) approximations
of the leading PC time series
of geopotential height
anomalies using differences between
sea level pressure
anomalies at stations in middle and high latitudes.
I've presented videos and gif animations to show the impacts
of ENSO on ISCCP Total Cloud Amount data (with cautions about that dataset), CAMS - OPI precipitation data, NOAA's Trade Wind Index (5S - 5N, 135W - 180)
anomaly data, RSS MSU TLT
anomaly data, CLS (AVISO)
Sea Level anomaly data, NCEP / DOE Reanalysis - 2 Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation Flux (dswrfsfc)
anomaly data, Reynolds OI.v2 SST
anomaly data and the NODC's ocean heat content data.
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
A comparison
of detrended North Atlantic SST
anomalies and scaled NAO (inverted) and NINO3.4 SST
anomalies shows that a change in
Sea Level Pressure preceded the 2001/02 change in the North Atlantic SST
anomalies.
The predictions make use
of October Siberian snow cover,
sea level pressure
anomalies and equatorial Pacific
sea surface temperature
anomalies.
The response pattern associated with GCR consisted
of a negative temperature
anomaly that was limited to parts
of eastern Europe, and a weak
anomaly in the
sea - level pressure (SLP), but coincided with higher pressure over the Norwegian S
sea -
level pressure (SLP), but coincided with higher pressure over the Norwegian
SeaSea.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
However you slice it, lolwot, there is a current «pause» (or «standstill») in the warming
of the «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature
anomaly» (used by IPCC to measure «global warming»), despite unabated human GHG emissions and CO2
levels (Mauna Loa) reaching record
levels.
The book presents the strong arguments over a wide range
of climate related issues — from energy, to natural climate factors, to weather
anomalies, to
sea level rise, etc. — in an easy to understand manner.
Sea Surface Temperature
anomalies for the Mid-To-High Latitudes
of the Northern Hemisphere also rose and remained at an elevated
level.
The stability and homogeneity
of the C3S
sea level products is also ensured by the use
of an homogeneous mean reference to compute the
sea level anomalies for all missions.
We have now seen several years
of successive Antarctic
sea ice records, and in the Arctic [take out the storm induced 2012
anomaly]
sea ice
levels turned the corner in 2007, with more and thicker [multi year] ice every year since.
2) The satellite tropospheric and
sea surface (SST) data differ from the HADCRUT surface temp
anomaly, with the present temperatures
of both right at the same
level as in 1991 (while Fig. 1 here shows an increase over 1991
of about 0.25 °C).
For SON, similar regression patterns are obtained if different atmospheric
levels (e.g. Z1000, Z500) are used instead
of Z850, but Z850 was found to have the greatest correspondence with ABS
sea ice
anomalies (not shown).
The
sea level anomaly creates an along - shelf geostrophic coastal current
anomaly, which is particularly strong on the western side
of the Peninsula.
Prior to vortex displacements the main
sea level pressure
anomaly center
of the tropospheric precursor is associated with the Siberian high.
The shrinking
of sea - ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional heating
of the lower
levels of air — which may lead to strong
anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling
of the northern continents, a study recently published in the Journal
of Geophysical Research shows.
We highlight the existence
of an intriguing and to date unreported relationship between the surface area
of the South Atlantic
Anomaly (SAA)
of the geomagnetic field and the current trend in global
sea level rise.
These
anomalies obviously had an effect on the global mean
of sea levels.
Indeed,
sea level anomalies measured by Topex / Poseidon were over 20 centimeters in the equatorial Pacific when the phenomenon was at its height (and as much as 30 centimeters off the coast
of Peru).
The first principal component is significantly correlated with the SAM index (the first principal component
of sea - level - pressure or 500 - hPa geopotential heights for 20u S — 90u S), and the second principal component reflects the zonal wave - 3 pattern, which contributes to the Antarctic dipole pattern of sea - ice anomalies in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea secto
sea -
level - pressure or 500 - hPa geopotential heights for 20u S — 90u S), and the second principal component reflects the zonal wave - 3 pattern, which contributes to the Antarctic dipole pattern
of sea - ice anomalies in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea secto
sea - ice
anomalies in the Ross
Sea and Weddell Sea secto
Sea and Weddell
Sea secto
Sea sectors.
The words «
sea level» are misleading: for a range
of reasons — from gravitational
anomalies on the
sea floor to the intrusion
of a warm current, or a pattern
of high winds — the
sea's contours ripple up and down imperceptibly around the planet.
The observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running means
of global mean surface temperature
anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global
sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue, along with linear trend
of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).