The accessibility of a large numbers of tidewater glaciers, subject to warming conditions, provides a unique opportunity to observe processes and enable more accurate predictions
of sea level response to ocean warming around Antarctica.
Not exact matches
There are the obvious ways: building and constantly improving the infrastructure necessary to predict hurricanes and other extreme weather, collecting images
of disasters to guide emergency
response workers, and tracking
sea level changes around the world that affect coastlines and the Navy.
While Kahan focused on the importance
of communication in organizing
responses to
sea -
level rise, Rutgers University's Benjamin Horton explored the underlying scientific forces that drive
sea -
level increases.
A long record
of ancient stone tools could tell us if the monkeys picked up tool use in
response to an environmental stress, such as rapid
sea level changes, for example.
«Connection
of sea level and groundwater missing link in climate
response.»
The new metric may help engineers determine how the shape
of a delta, such as the Mississippi's, may shift in
response to engineered structures such as dams and levees, and environmental changes, such as hurricane activity and
sea -
level rise.
But the
responses from individual installations provide a «preliminary qualitative picture
of assets currently affected by severe weather events as well as an indication
of assets that may be affected by
sea level rise in the future,» the report says.
If we instead consider our clean up efforts to be a form
of adaptation to prior mess making, then we have a choice between effective adaptation in the clean up and panicked and unseemly adaptation in the
response to
sea level rise etc....
Three issues
of importance to the future
of coral reefs are highlighted: (1) the role
of multiple stressors and synergies; including
sea level rise, storm impacts, fisheries impacts, water quality, and biotic
responses, (2) the nature
of resilience, and (3) the importance
of domino effects.
In permanently installed benthocosms, a research group investigates
responses of bottom - dwelling communities
of the Baltic and North
Sea when exposed to future temperature and carbon dioxide
levels.
Despite these caveats, we have shown that the model realistically simulates meridional changes
of sea level pressure in
response to climate forcings (Sect. 3.8.5).
Together these influences drove exceptional moisture transports into the continent's interior (Fig. 3a) and were likely responsible for one
of the wettest intervals in Australia's recorded history, the intensity and persistence
of its terrestrial storage anomaly, and a considerable fraction
of the global
sea level response.
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) occurs in
response to retreating ice from the last glacial period, where around most
of the world, land is subsiding at a fraction
of a millimetre per year, compounding the problem
of sea -
level rise.
«Many studies, albeit not all, have found that most
of the
responses to
sea ice losses are confined to polar latitudes and lower atmospheric
levels.
The imprint
of SAM variability on the Southern Ocean system is observed as a coherent
sea level response around Antarctica (Aoki, 2002; Hughes et al., 2003) and by its regulation
of Antarctic Circumpolar Current flow through the Drake Passage (Meredith et al., 2004).
We analyzed six time slices
of shoreline position over the past 118 yr at 29 islands
of Funafuti Atoll to determine their physical
response to recent
sea -
level rise.
The potential for unstable ice sheet disintegration is controversial, with opinion varying from likely stability
of even the (marine) West Antarctic ice sheet [94] to likely rapid non-linear
response extending up to multi-meter
sea level rise [97]--[98].
Facing the combination
of rising
sea -
levels and the increased likelihood and intensity
of violent weather events, disaster
response will have to get more technological.
Instead, we see in the distribution
of responses a broad scientific «mainstream» with a normal spread (the large hump
of three bars centered on 100 cm, in which I also find myself), complemented with a long tail
of about a dozen «pessimists» who are worried about a much larger
sea -
level rise.
[this is useful, the pre-ice age era, ~ 2.5 — 3.6 million years ago, last time CO2
levels were as high as today] In
response to Pliocene climate, ice sheet models consistently produce near - complete deglaciation
of the Greenland ice sheet (+7 m) and West Antarctic ice sheet (+4 m) and retreat
of the marine margins
of the Eastern Antarctic ice sheet (+3 m)(Lunt et al., 2008; Pollard and DeConto, 2009; Hill et al., 2010), altogether corresponding to a global mean
sea level rise
of up to 14 m.
And at the high temperatures that produce extreme rises in
sea level, predicting the
response of the climate system is difficult.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate
of sea -
level rise, or if a non-linear
response is more likely.
In
response, global
sea level rises, increasing the threat
of coastal inundation during storms.
«This uncertainty is illustrated by Pollard et al. (2015), who found that addition
of hydro - fracturing and cliff failure into their ice sheet model increased simulated
sea level rise from 2 m to 17 m, in
response to only 2 °C ocean warming and accelerated the time for substantial change from several centuries to several decades.»
Also protection costs will rise disproportionately with higher
sea level, according to Nicholls et al: «[A] dike required in
response to a 2m rise in
sea level is assumed to be four times the cost
of that required for a 1m rise in
sea level.»
[
Response:
Sea ice is still not at levels seen during the Early Holocene, and since we are discussing sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
Sea ice is still not at
levels seen during the Early Holocene, and since we are discussing
sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change
of summer
sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea ice will warm the bottom
sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea water, we are clearly not there yet.
Zhang, J., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2010), Arctic
sea ice
response to atmospheric forcings with varying
levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability, Geophys.
Polar amplication is
of global concern due to the potential effects
of future warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global
sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude
of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration
of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium
response to external forcings.
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) occurs in
response to retreating ice from the last glacial period, where around most
of the world, land is subsiding at a fraction
of a millimetre per year, compounding the problem
of sea -
level rise.
Geoff Beacon, before betting too much check papers like Zhang et al. «Arctic
sea ice
response to atmospheric forcings with varying
levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability».
Of course I can not prove that my choice of a ten - year doubling time for nonlinear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU forcin
Of course I can not prove that my choice
of a ten - year doubling time for nonlinear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU forcin
of a ten - year doubling time for nonlinear
response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear
response for the ice sheet component
of sea level rise under BAU forcin
of sea level rise under BAU forcing.
[
Response: Current trends in
sea level rise are larger (> 3mm / year), and estimates
of future changes rely on more that the excel linear regression routine.
[
Response: I don't recall his paper at this
level of detail but the Arctic
sea ice and the coral reefs are already being hurt, although in the case
of corals they're also impacted by local pollution and fishing and ocean pH. So it makes sense to me that a target CO2 with respect to these issues might be lower than the number that stuck in my head from his paper, 350 ppm.
Update, 3:53 p.m. I just recalled that my old friend Mike Lemonick wrote an excellent piece in 2012 for Climate Central focused on the
response of coastal communities in Florida to
sea -
level realities.
Ian Joughin made some statements recently [context] that I thought were pretty solid about it being a few centuries before this kind
of very rapid
sea level rise can take place and that makes sense to me because there are some very important things that you have to do in order to turn on the rapid
response of the Antarctic ice sheet — you have to get rid
of a couple
of big ice shelves for starters.
The simple approach is only valid for the initial
sea level response to large and rapid rise in global temperature, as sketched in Fig. 1
of my paper.
The processes
of land subdivision and development set in place urban features that last for millenia (the layout
of streets in Rome, London, Florida etc), and so it is sensible today to start building all new infrastructure (roading layouts, utilities etc) to facilitate a logical
response to the progressive
sea level rise and withdrawl from the coastal areas.
Those projections are detailed in Zhang et al, 2010 «Arctic
sea ice
response to atmospheric forcings with varying
levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability.»
The problem is that for most purposes (fluxes
of heat into the oceans, and hence ocean warming and hence
sea level rise; or biosphere
responses) what you care about * is * the surface temperature.
[
Response: The flaw in your argument is the long response time of se
Response: The flaw in your argument is the long
response time of se
response time
of sea level.
Dorothy Atwood, one
of the course participants, notes that «the reality
of increasingly dangerous climate change — the rising temperatures and
sea levels; the droughts, floods and stronger storms; the acidic oceans; the increasing forest fires; the expanding health dangers; the economic costs
of floods, drought, hurricanes and sunken coastal cities — are very real to us and demand our personal and group
response because it makes both environmental and economic sense to change the way we live and solve these problems.»
The comments we got back on our work were overwhelmingly positive, and were along the lines that what we had presented was a good next step — both to move past the IPCC's low
sea level forecasts, and as a
response to the persistent hypotheses
of very high rates
of sea level rise that were circulating.
While on the topic
of the oceans»
response to warming, I would very much like to see a RealClimate posting on the effects on
sea levels of GW.
Also, there are dangers to CO2 emission other than the peak, such as the long tail
of the CO2 perturbation which will dominate the ultimate
sea level response, and the acidification
of the ocean.
I have three immediate
responses: Satisfaction in the great success
of the collaboration, concern that this slightly increases worries about future
sea -
level rise from human - caused warming, but technical questions that may leave us more - or-less where we were before on the biggest picture.
Overall, the panel's reports have never focused much on research examining how humans respond (or fail to respond) to certain kinds
of risk, particularly «super wicked» problems such global warming, which is imbued with persistent uncertainty on key points (the pace
of sea -
level rise, the extent
of warming from a certain buildup
of greenhouse gases), dispersed and delayed risks, and a variegated menu
of possible
responses.
[
Response: Greenland ice is good for 7 metres and the WAIS for 6 metres
of sea level rise.
One set
of researchers reports in Science Advances that, in
response to El Niño, Western Pacific
sea levels will fall and rise more frequently by 2100.
New Zealand coastal geomorphologist Paul Kench,
of the University
of Auckland's School
of Environment, and colleagues in Australia and Fiji,... found that reef islands change shape and move around in
response to shifting sediments, and that many
of them are growing in size, not shrinking, as
sea level inches upward.
JC comments: When I raise the issue
of emphasizing adaptation over mitigation, the
response I often get is that the
sea level rise issue is so global and overwhelming that mitigation is the only sensible way to deal with the global
sea level rise.