Six meters (or about 20 feet)
of sea level rise does not sound like a lot.
«The important point here is that smooth projections
of sea level rise do not capture this variability, so adverse effects of sea level rise may occur before they are predicted to happen,» Dutton said.
What would 5 meters
of sea level rise do to the stability of the WAIS?
Changes in the rate of sea level rise don't have to follow a parabola, since 1930 or any time point you care to name.
For instance, projections
of sea level rise do not take into account the fact that the flow of ice from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could be faster in the future than they were in recent years.
How many meters
of sea level rise do you anticipate by 2065?
«The important point here is that smooth projections
of sea level rise do not capture this variability, so adverse effects of sea level rise may occur before they are predicted to happen,» said Andrea Dutton, an earth scientist at the University of Florida.
Not exact matches
It's directly measurable by
sea level as most
of the
rises we are seeing are due to nothing more than thermal expansion (even the skeptics don't argue that, the measurements are solid, and there's no explanation other than «it's getting hotter»).
«In order to understand coastal impacts under current and future climate and socio - economic conditions, we
do not only need robust projections
of mean
sea level rise but also a profound knowledge
of present - day and future extreme
sea levels, because these events drive the impacts,» Wahl said.
But this debate
does not challenge the core projections
of the IPCC about the impact
of greenhouse gas accumulations on temperature, rainfall, and
sea -
level rise.
Scientists from Rice University and Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi's Harte Research Institute for Gulf
of Mexico Studies have discovered that Earth's
sea level did not
rise steadily but rather in sharp, punctuated bursts when the planet's glaciers melted during the period
of global warming at the close
of the last ice age.
«While
sea level rise sets the conditions for landward displacement
of the shore, coastal storms supply the energy to
do the «geologic work» by moving the sand off and along the beach,» writes Leatherman on his DrBeach.org website.
Because scientists
did not previously have specific evidence
of punctuated decade - scale
sea -
level rise, they had little choice but to present the risks
of sea -
level rise in a linear, per - year format, Droxler said.
Scientists still
do not know what triggers the breakup
of an ice shelf or when future ones will occur, so they struggle to estimate how quickly glaciers will dump their ice into the ocean and therefore how much
sea level will
rise.
Melting
of the ice shelves doesn't directly affect
sea level rise, because they're already floating.
Those 2007 IPCC estimates
of 18 to 59 centimeters
of sea -
level rise by 2100
do not account for any
of these ice shelf effects.
«At one
level, it just reinforces a point that we already knew: that the effects
of climate change and
sea level rise are irreversible and going to be with us for thousands
of years,» says Williams, who
did not work on the study.
While a slowdown
of circulation in the North Atlantic can further exacerbate
sea level rise in the northeast, it
does not explain the accelerations observed in the southeast, and was not required to explain the hot spots observed in the northeast, according to the study.
We suffer deluges in the form
of floods, tsunamis and
rising sea levels, while at the same time one in six people on the planet
do not have access to safe drinking water.
(laughs) So okay, so then in this session we've been
doing here at AGU, this all, kind
of, comes down to
sea -
level rise and what can we expect.
Do we need to retrench, pull back from the coasts because
of sea -
level rise or rebuild differently?
«If the IPCC comes out with significantly less than 100 cm
of sea level rise, there will be people in the science community saying we don't think that's a fair reflection
of what we know,» said Bob Corell, chairman
of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, speaking to Associated Press.
Instead
of Australia dumping millions
of tonnes
of sludge onto their Great Barrier Reef so they can export more coal to be burned (8 February, p 7), why don't they send it to an island country that needs it because
of rising sea levels caused by climate change, such as Tuvalu in Polynesia?
Just how much energy would be absorbed and what the extent
of damage could be
done by
rising sea levels and tsunamis or king tides is the subject
of future research.
Melting
of ice shelves
does not directly contribute to
sea -
level rise, but instead they hold back water frozen in the larger ice sheet that will cause
sea levels to
rise.
A glaciologist rather than a biologist, he wanted to investigate a question critical to climate change:
Do subglacial rivers and lakes lubricate the movement
of ice over land — and might they somehow accelerate a glacier's flow into the ocean, triggering rapid
sea level rise?
The melting
of floating ice shelves
does not contribute to
sea level rise because once they are in the water, the ice shelves have already contributed to
sea level rise.
A separate report indicated that the rate
of global
sea -
level rise had accelerated during the 20th century; if it continues as predicted, by 2100
seas will lap shores 12 inches higher than they
did in 1990.
The latest assessment also
did not account for the effects
of extreme weather except for coastal flooding due to
sea -
level rise and storm surge.
He says previous predictive models
of Greenland's ice loss
did not adequately take into account the faster movement
of its southern glaciers, which is accelerating the amount
of ice entering the ocean: «Greenland is probably going to contribute more to
sea level rise, and faster than predicted by these models.»
WHITEHOUSE: I
do come from an ocean state, and we
do measure the
rise in the
sea level and we measure the warming
of Narragansett Bay and we measure the change in PH. It's serious for us, Senator.
Of course, that water does not truly disappear; much of it ends up in the ocean, where it makes up about one - fourth of the annual 3.1 - millimeter rise in sea leve
Of course, that water
does not truly disappear; much
of it ends up in the ocean, where it makes up about one - fourth of the annual 3.1 - millimeter rise in sea leve
of it ends up in the ocean, where it makes up about one - fourth
of the annual 3.1 - millimeter rise in sea leve
of the annual 3.1 - millimeter
rise in
sea level.
When combined with projected
sea level rise, flooding
of 2.25 meters — enough to
do tens
of billions
of dollars
of damage — could take place every 5 years from 2030 to 2045.
Dr Jochen Hinkel from Global Climate Forum in Germany, who is a co-author
of this paper and a Lead Author
of the coastal chapter for the 2014 IPCC Assessment Report added: «The IPCC has
done a great job in bringing together knowledge on climate change,
sea -
level rise and is potential impacts but now needs to complement this work with a solution - oriented perspective focusing on overcoming barriers to adaptation, mobilising resources, empowering people and discovering opportunities for strengthening coastal resilience in the context
of both climate change as well as existing coastal challenges and other issues.»
On its own,
sea level rise could inundate between 50 and 410 square kilometres
of this area by 2100, depending on how much is
done to limit further global warming and how fast the polar ice sheets melt.
«The primary uncertainty in
sea level rise is what are the ice sheets going to
do over the coming century,» said Mathieu Morlighem, an expert in ice sheet modeling at the University
of California, Irvine, who led the paper along with dozens
of other contributors from institutions around the world.
The consequences
of global
sea level rise could be even scarier than the worst - case scenarios predicted by the dominant climate models, which don't fully account for the fast breakup
of ice sheets and glaciers, NASA scientists said today (Aug. 26) at a press briefing.
The IPCC also predicts greater
sea -
level rise than it
did in 2007, as it now includes models
of ice - sheet movements.
Because existing phenomena — such as thermal expansion
of water from warming —
do not fully explain the corrected
sea -
level -
rise number
of 3.3 millimeters, stored heat in the deep ocean may be making a significant contribution, Cazenave said.
Fact # 1: Carbon Dioxide is a Heat - Trapping Gas Fact # 2: We Are Adding More Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere All the Time Fact # 3: Temperatures are
Rising Fact # 4:
Sea Level is
Rising Fact # 5: Climate Change Can be Natural, but What's Happening Now Can't be Explained by Natural Forces Fact # 6: The Terms «Global Warming» and «Climate Change» Are Almost Interchangeable Fact # 7: We Can Already See The Effects
of Climate Change Fact # 8: Large Regions
of The World Are Seeing a Significant Increase In Extreme Weather Events, Including Torrential Rainstorms, Heat Waves And Droughts Fact # 9: Frost and Snowstorms Will Still Happen in a Warmer World Fact # 10: Global Warming is a Long - Term Trend; It Doesn't Mean Next Year Will Always Be Warmer Than This Year
The Greater New York City region has
done good work in the years since Superstorm Sandy to consider storm - related flooding, but a new report by the Regional Plan Association found that the more pernicious threat
of sea -
level rise needs more attention.
The IPCC is predicting greater
sea level rise than it
did in 2007, as it now includes models
of ice sheet movements.
Current projections
of global
sea level rise do not account for the complicated behavior
of these giant ice slabs as they interact with the atmosphere, the ocean and the land.
Nonetheless, with
rising sea level and environmental refugeeism compounding the increased demand on water, food, and land
of a growing population (albeit one likely to
level out mid 21st century), the combined impacts
of climate change and global population increase could potentially yield a world that doesn't look that different from the one portrayed in the movie — indeed, as Jim Hansen puts it, «a different planet» — by century's end.
If nothing is
done to stop the increase in the concentration
of CO2,
sea level rise will not stop at 20 ft.. The Arctic
sea ice has nearly gone.
«You need to lose a lot
of ice from some
of the major ice sheets in Antarctica to achieve this kind
of sea level rise, and we don't know when this could happen.»
«I wouldn't rule it [4.6 metres
of sea level rise] out, but we simply don't know how long it could take, and what else might happen in the meantime,» says Christensen.
Third, using a «semi-empirical» statistical model calibrated to the relationship between temperature and global
sea -
level change over the last 2000 years, we find that, in alternative histories in which the 20th century
did not exceed the average temperature over 500-1800 CE, global
sea -
level rise in the 20th century would (with > 95 % probability) have been less than 51 %
of its observed value.
«I certainly don't disagree with them that we shouldn't be making outlandish statements about
sea level rise, and some outlandish statements have been made; but the high end
of the estimates here is still about 2m, and woe betide any government that thinks a 2m
rise in
sea level isn't something to take notice
of.»
This expected large
sea -
level rise does of course not surprise us paleoclimatologists, given that in earlier warm periods
of Earth's history
sea level has been many meters higher than now due to the diminished continental ice cover (see the recent review by Dutton et al. 2015 in Science).