Based on this historical record and the fact that the Laurentide melted away under summertime temperatures similar to those expected in Greenland by the end of this century, Carlson and his colleagues forecast glacial melting that contributes somewhere between 2.8 inches (seven centimeters) and 5.1 inches (13 centimeters)
of sea level rise per year, or as much as a 4.3 - foot (1.3 - meter) increase by 2100.
But in any case, the loss of Thwaites Glacier appears inevitable, Joughin said: «All of our simulations show it will retreat at less than a millimeter
of sea level rise per year for a couple of hundred years, and then, boom, it just starts to really go.»
When dividing the mass balance value by the surface area of the oceans (361.6 million square kilometers), the final result is 0.58 millimeters
of sea level rise per year.
We know that melting ice sheets have contributed to meters
of sea level rise per year century (sorry for the error!)
«We know that melting ice sheets have contributed to meters
of sea level rise per year — meltwater pulse 1 A for instance, or even the early Holocene final collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Ice sheet mass decreased at 152 ± 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, equal to 0.4 ± 0.2 millimeters
of sea level rise per year.
The Greenland ice sheet is thought to be one of the largest contributors to global sea level rise over the past 20 years, accounting for 0.5 millimeters of the current total of 3.2 millimeters
of sea level rise per year.
Not exact matches
Beyond
sea level rise, San Francisco is slowly sinking at a rate
of up to 10 millimeters
per year in a process called subsidence.
«
Sea level observations are telling us that during the past 100 years sea level has risen at an average rate of 1.7 millimeters per year,» most of that due to thermal expansion as the top 700 meters of the oceans warms and expan
Sea level observations are telling us that during the past 100
years sea level has risen at an average rate of 1.7 millimeters per year,» most of that due to thermal expansion as the top 700 meters of the oceans warms and expan
sea level has
risen at an average rate
of 1.7 millimeters
per year,» most
of that due to thermal expansion as the top 700 meters
of the oceans warms and expands.
For example, the International Panel on Climate Change, the authoritative scientific source about the impacts
of human - induced climate change, «had to simply take the projected
rise for a century, divide by 100 and say, «We expect
sea level to
rise this much
per year,»» he said.
Because scientists did not previously have specific evidence
of punctuated decade - scale
sea -
level rise, they had little choice but to present the risks
of sea -
level rise in a linear,
per -
year format, Droxler said.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up
of leading climate scientists,
sea levels have
risen some 3.1 millimeters
per year since 1993.
The new model has recently been put to the test in New York City, where the rate
of sea level rise is more than 3 mm
per year in an area that currently houses more than $ 25 billion
of infrastructure at less than 1 meter above
sea level.
The subsidence means these areas are sinking even faster than
sea level is
rising because
of global warming: currently 3 mm
per year and accelerating.
Global average
sea level has
risen by roughly 0.11 inch (3 millimeters)
per year since 1993 due to a combination
of water expanding as it warms and melting ice sheets.
On average,
sea level has
risen more than a tenth
of an inch
per year over the last 12
years.
Delta lowering and
sea -
level rise thus accounts for submergence
of about 1 cm
per year.
A further factor is the
rising sea level due to global warming, an effect that now also totals more than three millimeters
per year and is responsible for another 15 centimeters
of submerged land.
The current rate
of relative
sea -
level rise (the combined effect
of land subsidence and
sea -
level rise) along parts
of the coastal delta is nearly 8 to 9 mm
per year.
Globally,
sea levels rose an average
of 1.7 millimetres
per year between 1901 and 2010.
These data suggest that we can expect a global
sea level rise of 2.3 m
per 1 °C
of warming within the next 2000
years: well within societal timeframes.
To achieve a 2m
sea level rise by 2100, by contrast, every Greenland glacier would have to increase its flow rate to at least 27 km
per year and remain at that velocity for the rest
of the century.
Several previous analyses
of tide gauge records1, 2,3,4,5,6 — employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness
of the data and to constrain the geometry
of long - term
sea -
level change — have concluded that GMSL
rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate
of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres
per year.
The same analysis applied to the period 19932010, however, indicates a
sea -
level rise of about three millimetres
per year, consistent with other work and suggesting that the recent acceleration in
sea -
level rise has been greater than previously thought.
Carling Hay et al. provide a statistical reassessment
of the tide gauge record which is subject to bias due to sparse and non-uniform geographic coverage and other uncertainties and conclude that
sea -
level rose by about 1.2 millimetres
per year from 1901 to 1990.
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) occurs in response to retreating ice from the last glacial period, where around most
of the world, land is subsiding at a fraction
of a millimetre
per year, compounding the problem
of sea -
level rise.
As glaciers and overland ice sheets shed ice and the warming oceans expand,
sea level rise is accelerating; NASA says the rate
of sea level rise has jumped from 1 millimeter
per year 100
years ago to 3 millimeters
per year today.
Once melt passed 1 mm
per year, rapid collapse (within decades) occurred as the grounding line reached the deepest parts
of the marine basin (for reference, total global
sea level rise today is ~ 3 mm
per year, so this is a significant contribution!).
The big surprise is that the rate
of sea level rise hasn't dropped since 2003, continuing at over 3 mm
per year.
Ice core data from Antarctic from ocean sediments show 8 episodes
of very large ice flux — largest 14,600
years ago, meltwater pulse 1a — 1 - 3 meters
sea level rise per century for several centuries.
As the ice melted, starting around 20 000
years ago,
sea level rose rapidly at average rates
of about 10 mm
per year (1 m
per century), and with peak rates
of the order
of 40 mm
per year (4 m
per century), until about 6000
years ago.»
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) occurs in response to retreating ice from the last glacial period, where around most
of the world, land is subsiding at a fraction
of a millimetre
per year, compounding the problem
of sea -
level rise.
At the height
of the last ice age,
sea levels were about 120 metres below present day
levels, and the average
rise of sea level during the return to our present climate was about 1 metre
per one hundred
years.
The total 2000 — 2008 mass loss
of ~ 1500 gigatons, equivalent to 0.46 millimeters
per year of global
sea level rise, is equally split between surface processes (runoff and precipitation) and ice dynamics.
Less certain is the time scale, with the onset
of rapid (> 1 mm
per year of sea -
level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range
of 200 to 900
years.
--
Sea level continued to rise: Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decad
Sea level continued to
rise: Global mean
sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decad
sea level continued to
rise during 2013, on pace with a trend
of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm
per year over the past two decades.
The current rate
of sea level rise is 2.4 mm /
year, which is less than one foot
per century.
Over the last 15,000
years,
sea level has
risen more than 300 feet, for an average
rise of greater than two feet
per century.
Climate scientists have been able to close the
sea level «budget» by accounting for the various factors that are causing average global
sea levels to
rise at the measured rate
of about 3.2 millimeters
per year since 1992 (when altimeters were launched into space to truly measure global
sea level).
Nor can any such conclusion be reconciled with the relations between temperature and
sea level rise during the recent history
of Earth, which are in the very minimum +8 meters
per +1 degree C (as in the mid-Pliocene (3 Ma), or about +20 meters
per +1 degree C in the Youngest dryas (11 230
years ago).
Consider ground water extraction first: If its ground water extraction that is causing a 1 mm
per year rise in
sea level, and the water is being drawn from aquifers comprising 1 %
of land area, and the average porosity is 1 %, and
sea surface to land surface ratio is 7:3 then:
As noted by Reager (2016) in A Decade
of Sea Level Rise Slowed by Climate - Driven Hydrology, researchers had determined the seasonal delay in the return of precipitation to the oceans causes sea levels to oscillate by 17 ± 4 mm [~ 0.7 inches] per ye
Sea Level Rise Slowed by Climate - Driven Hydrology, researchers had determined the seasonal delay in the return
of precipitation to the oceans causes
sea levels to oscillate by 17 ± 4 mm [~ 0.7 inches] per ye
sea levels to oscillate by 17 ± 4 mm [~ 0.7 inches]
per year.
Less certain is the timescale, with onset
of rapid (> 1 mm
per year of sea -
level rise) collapse for the different simulations within the range
of two to nine centuries.
Whatever the true linear increasing rate
of the present global
sea level rise is, a look on the data after subtracting a linear function
of +3.2 mm
per year from the Colorado
sea level data shows a remarkable oscillation
of about ~ 6.15 periods
per year, because this is twice the synodic frequency
of Mercury, Earth and Jupiter, with the frequencies
of Mercury (4.15204 y ^ -1), Earth (0.9998 y ^ -1) and Jupiter (0.084317 y ^ -1): F = 2 * (4.15204 — 0.99998 — 0.
Axel Moerner claims that the effect
of rising sea levels on LOD limits the
sea level rise to 1.1 MM
per year or 1 cigarette length
per century.
Later: Nerem's team calculated that the rate
of sea -
level rise increased from around 1.8 millimetres
per year in 1993 to roughly 3.9 millimetres
per year today as a result
of global warming.
Current rate
of the
sea level rise is 2 - 3 mm
per year, and anthropogenic influence can not be detected.
«Satellite observations, which began in 1993, indicate that the rate
of sea level rise has held fairly steady at about 3 millimeters
per year.
One key subtext to these findings is that scientists expect the
rise in
sea levels to accelerate in coming
years, beyond the current estimated rate
of 3.4 millimeters
per year.
Fourth Assessment Report (2007): Global average
sea level rose at an average rate
of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm
per year over 1961 to 2003.