The IPCC found that the high end
of sea level rise projections by the end of the century would be about 4 feet worldwide.
He has a deceptively misleading — and outright erroneous — discussion
of sea level rise projections in Cool It.
Scientists are working to narrow the range
of sea level rise projections for this century.
Not exact matches
«In order to understand coastal impacts under current and future climate and socio - economic conditions, we do not only need robust
projections of mean
sea level rise but also a profound knowledge
of present - day and future extreme
sea levels, because these events drive the impacts,» Wahl said.
«There's a lot
of ambiguity in post-2050
projections of sea -
level rise and we may have to live with that for a while,» said Robert E. Kopp, the study's lead author and a professor in the Department
of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers.
sea -
level rise, but it may lean toward the high side
of the IPCC
projections.
Published this week in Nature Climate Change, the initial study finds that embankments constructed since the 1960s are primarily to blame for lower land elevations along the Ganges - Brahmaputra River Delta, with some areas experiencing more than twice the rate
of the most worrisome
sea -
level rise projections from the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
But this debate does not challenge the core
projections of the IPCC about the impact
of greenhouse gas accumulations on temperature, rainfall, and
sea -
level rise.
The researchers chose their range
of sea level —
rise projections based on what is most likely to happen to the west coast, according to dozens
of regional and global studies.
«The holy grail
of all
of this work is improving
sea -
level rise projections,» she added.
Extraction
of groundwater for irrigation and home and industrial use turns out to be an important missing piece
of the puzzle in estimates for past and current
sea -
level changes and for
projections of future
rises
«The important point here is that smooth
projections of sea level rise do not capture this variability, so adverse effects
of sea level rise may occur before they are predicted to happen,» Dutton said.
Most
of the nation is about 1.5 meters above
sea level, a threshold that could easily be breached by the end
of the century if current
projections of sea -
level rise occur.
No one can turn a blind eye to the
projections everyone uses in South Florida: 2 feet
of sea -
level rise by 2060.
«Polar regions have been changing very rapidly, providing data for our
projections on
sea ice, snow cover, ice sheets and
sea level rise,» says David Vaughan
of the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK, the lead author
of the cryosphere chapter.
He relates how
projections of this century's
sea -
level rise are going up, but still nowhere near the 60 - metre leap that would follow if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets go.
«By refining the spatial pattern
of mass loss in the world's second largest — and most unstable — ice sheet, and learning how that pattern has evolved, we are steadily increasing our understanding
of ice loss processes, which will lead to better - informed
projections of sea level rise.»
Dozens
of feet
of sea level rise could take millennia, but the latest estimates suggest as much as 8 feet by the end
of the century on the extreme end
of projections.
Dumont says the new darkening effect could easily add 2 centimeters to the
projections of sea level rise by 2100 — and perhaps more if impurity
levels grow with time.
The 21 - member panel composed
of sea -
level rise experts from the Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, reviewed
projections from Maryland's 2008 Climate Action Plan and provided updated recommendations based on new scientific results that can better inform
projections of sea level rise for Maryland.
Of particular interest to the researchers is a
projection from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that future temperatures on the planet will
rise faster at high altitudes than they will at
sea level.
The large error bars on that number inject uncertainty into our
projections of the effects
of climate change — from changing storm patterns to
sea level rise.
The findings, published yesterday in the journal Science, suggest scientists still have much to learn about the factors that govern the behavior
of ice sheets — knowledge that is crucial to developing more accurate
projections of future
sea level rise.
The affordability
of the hybrid model means that it is a better option through about 2030, assuming
sea -
level rise follows the average
projections of scientists, said Aerts.
«The information will be a critical complement to future long - term
projections of sea level rise, which depend on melting ice and warming oceans.»
«This acceleration, driven mainly by accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total
sea level rise by 2100 as compared to
projections that assume a constant rate — to more than 60 cm instead
of about 30.»
And
of course, the future fate
of the ice sheets and how they will dynamically respond to climate warming is hugely important for
projections of sea level rise and polar hydrology.
Recent
projections show that for even the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion
of ocean waters21 and the melting
of small mountain glaciers22 will result in 11 inches
of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
But the rapid retreat seen in the past 40 years means that in the coming decades,
sea -
level rise will likely exceed this century's
sea -
level rise projections of 3 feet (90 centimeters) by 2100, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said Sridhar Anandakrishnan, a glaciologist at Pennsylvania State University, who was not involved in the study.
No single entity is capable
of addressing the vast needs for improved climate services in these nations: for everything from
projections of future
sea -
level rise that help planners identify places to build and develop that are out
of harm's way, to maps that overlay population, infrastructure, and climate data to help decision makers target resources to areas
of greatest vulnerability.
Lack
of knowledge about the ice sheets and their behavior is the primary reason that
projections of global
sea level rise includes such a wide range
of plausible future conditions.
Current
projections of global
sea level rise do not account for the complicated behavior
of these giant ice slabs as they interact with the atmosphere, the ocean and the land.
A better understanding
of these processes could in turn lead to more accurate
projections of how Greenland might continue to change in the future, as well as how much
sea level rise it might contribute.
This advanced workshop reviewed the scientific development
of the Southeast Florida
Sea Level Rise Projections, and highlighted how these projections are critical for local governmen
Projections, and highlighted how these
projections are critical for local governmen
projections are critical for local government planning.
Our new study links a framework for global and local
sea -
level rise projections with simulations
of two major mechanisms by which climate change can affect t...
This study links a framework for global and local
sea -
level rise projections with simulations
of two major mechanisms by which climate change can affect the vast Antarctic ice sheet.
Nonetheless, our
sea -
level rise projections for the first half
of this century are not strongly affected by the way Antarctica is modeled, nor are they strongly tied to global greenhouse gas emissions trends.
Every centimeter
of sea level rise on top
of these
projections is even more significant.»
This framework has yielded the first global set
of fully probabilistic, local
sea -
level rise projections.
That's just part
of her expertise, including research on the high Arctic water cycle, and
projections of sea level rise due to climate change.
When you add in climate trends including
sea level rise, which can increase the height
of storm surge, and
projections of fewer but more intense hurricanes, you have a recipe for increased vulnerability and losses in these regions in the future.
The Climate Impact Lab's
sea -
level rise projections use a framework that ties together multiple threads
of information to assess the probability
of local
sea -
level changes around the world, under different future emissions scenarios.
This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on current emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner:
Sea -
level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially exceed» IPCC
projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming
of several degrees Celsius»).
The conclusion that the Greenland ice sheet melting was significantly enhanced by the increased N. Hemispheric insolation during the Eemian affects
projections of future (near term)
sea level rise insofar as Greenland melt contributed to the Eemian
sea level rise.
We analyzed the effect
of a medium - high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated
projections of sea -
level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315 (5810): 368, 2007).
Past rates
of change, if used wisely, provide potential constraints
of future
projections, together with the many semi-empirical approaches to project future
sea -
level rise (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007) which are typically greater in magnitude than those from process based models.
Look at the photo
of the sloshing levee above and then ponder the low end
of the
projections of rising sea levels in last year's reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Odd — the words ``... Previous
projections of 20 feet or more
of sea level rise by the end
of the century...» appear twice — attributed both to a phone call with the author by the science news writer, and in direct quotes in the official press release.
This will lead to more robust
projections of sea level rise than is currently possible.
[Updated, Aug. 18, 2016, 11:33 a.m. When the Hansen paper finally passed peer review and was published in March 2016, the elements predicting an imminent rapid
rise in
sea levels — the aspect
of the paper that drew the attention
of CNN, CBS and other major media — were largely replaced by
projections.]