Regional patterns
of sea surface temperature change: a source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern
of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.
Not exact matches
One
of the subtle
changes visible in the new data - set is how the Amazon's greenness corresponds to one
of the long - known causes
of rainfall or drought to the Amazon basin:
changes in
sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, called the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Using records dating back to 1855, hurricane researchers say they have uncovered an ongoing rise in the number
of Atlantic hurricanes that tracks the increase in
sea surface temperature related to climate
change.
This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not
changing sea surface temperature, caused the regional
changes in climate during the last third
of the 20th century, the researchers say.
Sea -
surface temperature is an important driver
of the weather, and because the oceans
change temperature very slowly compared with the air and land, they form a key, predictable component
of seasonal forecasts.
Several studies linked this to
changes in
sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans, but it was not clear if this was part
of a long - term trend.
While natural climate variations like El Niño do affect the frequency and severity
of heat waves from one year to the next, the study suggests the increases are mainly linked to long - term
changes in
sea surface temperatures.
Beyond human activity, tropical
sea surface temperatures further back in time are affected by volcanic eruptions,
changes in the intensity
of sunlight and natural events like El Niño.
Taking factors such as
sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases and natural aerosol particles into consideration, the researchers determined that
changes in the concentration
of black carbon could be the primary driving force behind the observed alterations to the hydrological cycle in the region.
The results suggest that the impact
of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic
surface temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to
changes in ocean
surface temperatures and atmospheric variability.
Kevin Trenbeth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the study didn't account for
changes in
sea surface temperatures, which are the main drivers
of changes in the position
of the rain belts (as is seen during an El Nino event, when Pacific warming pushes the subtropical jet over the Western U.S. southward).
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
Of course, while short - term
changes in
sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs
of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the average global
surface temperature — there is a lot
of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of noise, or natural variation, in the system.
Ajay Kalra
of the Desert Research Institute in Las Vegas has identified several regions
of the Pacific Ocean where
changes in
sea surface temperature appear to be statistically linked to the Colorado River's streamflow.
In recent years, a brand
of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact
of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate
change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation,
sea -
surface temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host
of other possible factors).
The data, in the form
of infrared images
of the Earth's
surface, is used to detect
changes in
sea surface temperatures for research -LSB-...]
The team analyzed an index
of sea surface temperatures from the Bering Sea and found that in years with higher than average Arctic temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North Ameri
sea surface temperatures from the Bering
Sea and found that in years with higher than average Arctic temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North Ameri
Sea and found that in years with higher than average Arctic
temperatures,
changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North America.
There are strong competing effects such as
changes in the large - scale atmospheric circulation,
sea surface temperature changes like El Niño and La Niña and the dynamics
of westerly storm tracks that all interact at the mid-latitudes,» said Stanford co-author Matthew Winnick who contributed to the study with fellow doctoral student Daniel Ibarra.
The study stops short
of attributing California's latest drought to
changes in Arctic
sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm
sea surface temperatures and
changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
The first image, based on data from January 1997 when El Nio was still strengthening shows a
sea level rise along the Equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean
of up to 34 centimeters with the red colors indicating an associated
change in
sea surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
Sea surface temperatures are higher because
of climate
change, he said, adding about 5 to 10 percent to precipitation levels.
Changes in the
temperature of the
sea surface in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are linked to the pattern
of rainfall over parts
of the surrounding continents.
Here, we report on local and global
changes in MHW characteristics over time as recorded by satellite and in situ measurements
of sea surface temperature (SST) and defined using a quantitative MHW framework, which allows for comparisons across regions and events1.
Consistent with observed
changes in
surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions
of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
This simulation represents how
sea surface temperature changes evolve as a hurricane (seen here approaching the U.S. East Coast) moves across the Atlantic and how the resultant cold wake affects subsequent intensification
of the next hurricane.
The interaction
of the ocean and atmosphere means that these
changes in
sea surface temperatures are translated into
changes in wind direction and strength.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic
changes in
sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence
of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.
By plotting the anomaly
temperatures, scientists can obtain a precise idea
of the intensity
of change in
sea -
surface temperatures.
Scientists use a large drill to remove parts
of the coral to analyse for information about
changes in rainfall and
sea surface temperature.
They wrote that their comparisons
of sea - level pressures,
sea -
surface temperatures and land - based air
temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation
of temperatures by
changes in ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»
For significant periods
of time, the reconstructed large - scale
changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term
changes in tropical Pacific
sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
Thousands
of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented
changes in
surface, atmospheric, and oceanic
temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking
sea ice; rising
sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.
Sea surface temperature change after doubling
of atmospheric CO2 concentration in a scenario where CO2 increases by 1 % every year.
This seems to be associated with particular patterns
of change in
sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured in climate models on seasonal timescales.
In this special edition, David Parker, Chief Executive
of the UK Space Agency, and Christopher Merchant from the University
of Reading and science leader
of the Climate
Change Initiative's
sea -
surface temperature project, join the show to discuss climate research in the UK.
Moreover, warmer
sea surface temperatures may
change the frequency and intensity
of those storms.
Climate
change made it 175 times more likely that the
surface waters
of the Coral
Sea, which off the Queensland coastline is home to Australia's Great Barrier Reef, would reach the record - breaking
temperatures last month that bleached reefs, modeling analysis showed.
In contrast to historical droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular pattern
of change in
sea surface temperature but seems to be the result
of an overall
surface warming driven by rising greenhouse gases.
And
of course the new paper by Hausfather et al, that made quite a bit
of news recently, documents how meticulously scientists work to eliminate bias in
sea surface temperature data, in this case arising from a
changing proportion
of ship versus buoy observations.
Past summer, extratropical
temperature changes appear, for example, to have have differed significantly from annual
temperature changes over the entire (tropical and extratropical) Northern Hemisphere, and tropical Pacific
Sea Surface Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely with temperatures in the extratropical regions o
Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely with
temperatures in the extratropical regions o
temperatures in the extratropical regions
of the globe.
As the authors point out, even if the whole story comes down to precipitation
changes which favor ablation, the persistence
of these conditions throughout the 20th century still might be an indirect effect
of global warming, via the remote effect
of sea surface temperature on atmospheric circulation.
A conceptual model is presented where, through a number
of synergistic processes and positive feedbacks,
changes in the ultraviolet / blue flux alter the dimethyl sulphide flux to the atmosphere, and in turn the number
of cloud condensation nuclei, cloud albedo, and thus
sea surface temperature.
It is widely realized that WWii saw
changes in the construction
of sampling buckets for
sea surface temperature measurement, and many navies switching to water intake
temperatures in compiling data from ships at
sea.
However,
changes in the distribution
of snowfall through the year, conceivably linked to increases in
sea surface temperature, may have reduced the reflectivity
of the glacier and played an even bigger role in forcing the retreat than
changes in air
temperature alone.
The problem here is that estimates
of changes in
sea surface temperature and the depth
of the warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior
of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most recent findings are that flow rates vary over a whole order
of magnitude:
On Wednesday an interesting paper (Thompson et al) was published in Nature, pointing to a clear artifact in the
sea surface temperatures in 1945 and associating it with the
changing mix
of fleets and measurement techniques at the end
of World War II.
Please don't lose the bigger perspective and the undoubted effects
of high
sea surface temperatures,
of which a component is human induced climate
change, on these events.
Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength
of the north - ward horizontal flow
of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic poleward heat transport and the distribution
of sea surface temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source
of the (climate) natural variability.
«West Coast
sea surface and coastal air
temperatures evolved in lockstep with
changing patterns
of atmospheric pressure and winds.»
The difference in the LGM cooling seems to be mostly due to smaller estimates
of SST [
sea surface temperature]
change (i.e., the new MARGO reconstruction).