Not exact matches
The ongoing La Niña
pattern, where there are colder than normal
sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, favors these types
of conditions.
Both the 2005 and 2010 droughts were the result
of a «very, very unusual» weather
pattern linked to higher
sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, said lead author Simon Lewis, a tropical forests expert at the University
of Leeds.
The future
of the currents, whether slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect on regional weather
patterns — from colder winters in Europe to a much warmer Caribbean (and hence warmer
sea surface temperatures to feed hurricanes).
Responding to the extreme weather that gripped the eastern coast
of the US this winter, Yannick Peings continued: «Unlike the 2012/2013 winter, this winter had rather low values
of the AMO index and the
pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies was not consistent with the typical positive AMO
pattern.
Researchers from the University
of California Irvine have shown that a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a natural
pattern of variation in North Atlantic
sea surface temperatures that switches between a positive and negative phase every 60 - 70 years — can affect an atmospheric circulation
pattern, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the
temperature and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere in winter.
In recent years, a brand
of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact
of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate
patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation,
sea -
surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host
of other possible factors).
Previous research had demonstrated a link between some droughts and peculiar
patterns of sea surface temperatures in different parts
of the world.
El Niño is a weather
pattern characterized by a periodic fluctuation in
sea surface temperature and air pressure in the Pacific Ocean, which causes climate variability over the course
of years, sometimes even decades.
Sea surface temperature data since 1882 document large El Niño - like
patterns following four out
of five big eruptions: Santa María (Guatemala) in October 1902, Mount Agung (Indonesia) in March 1963, El Chichón (Mexico) in April 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991.
The study stops short
of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic
sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm
sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate
pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
In late 2010 and early 2011, the continent Down Under received about twice its normal complement
of rain, thanks in large part to unusually warm
sea -
surface temperatures just north
of Australia and a particularly strong La Niña — in essence, combining a source
of warm humid air with the weather
patterns that steered the moisture over the continent where it condensed and fell as precipitation.
Changes in the
temperature of the
sea surface in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are linked to the
pattern of rainfall over parts
of the surrounding continents.
Normalised RMS error in simulation
of climatological
patterns of monthly precipitation, mean
sea level pressure and
surface air
temperature.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in
sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence
of climate warming on these
patterns is uncertain.
El Niño is a Pacific - driven climate
pattern that features warmer - than - normal
sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropics
of that ocean basin.
This seems to be associated with particular
patterns of change in
sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured in climate models on seasonal timescales.
In contrast to historical droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular
pattern of change in
sea surface temperature but seems to be the result
of an overall
surface warming driven by rising greenhouse gases.
This approach may not be useful for quantitative reconstructions
of past spatial
patterns of climate fields, e.g.
surface temperature,
sea level pressure, drought, etc..
Remember also that the US is only about 2 %
of the globe and the global
surface record corresponds closely with satellite measurements
of the lower troposhere, and also the
sea surface temperatures show a strikingly similar
pattern of warming.
These results suggest that
sea surface temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period
of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation
of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low 4.
«The climate
patterns responsible for the expected above - normal 2007 hurricane season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set
of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995), warmer - than - normal
sea surface temperatures in key areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina cycle&raq
sea surface temperatures in key areas
of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean
Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina cycle&raq
Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina cycle»
It is quite a strong La Nina, and that is a forcing
of the atmosphere by the anomalous atmospheric heating
patterns linked to SSTs [
sea surface temperatures].
«West Coast
sea surface and coastal air
temperatures evolved in lockstep with changing
patterns of atmospheric pressure and winds.»
Predicting
sea ice extent is easy if you can mentally calculate wind variations, momentum,
sea currents, multi year ice compression ratios, tidal synergy with weather
patterns, the AO, the
temperature of ice
sea water and air, how cloudy it will be, salinity, pycnocline convection rates,
sea surface to air interface, CO2 exchange, ice thickness distributions.....
The coincidence
of this area loss and a 30 square kilometer loss in 2008 with abnormal warmth this year, the setting
of increasing
sea surface temperatures and
sea ice decline are all part
of a climate warming
pattern.
My colleagues Mihai Dima and Gerrit Lohmann
of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany in a 2010 study analysed the
patterns of changes in global
sea surface temperatures.
However, to support the assertion that global warming is responsible for a great deal
of damage from such events, it is sufficient to show that such events have the «signature»
of global warming — for example, that specific global warming - related factors such as abnormally high
sea surface temperatures, elevated water vapor levels, and altered jet stream
patterns contributed to making Hurricane Sandy what it was — even if those factors can not be precisely quantified.
But it does say; «Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in
sea surface temperature, may have a larger effect on hurricane activity than the more uniform
patterns of global warming...»
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
Normalised RMS error in simulation
of climatological
patterns of monthly precipitation, mean
sea level pressure and
surface air
temperature.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter
Surface Air
Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
And for the period
of 1997 to 2012, there are no similarities between the warming and cooling
patterns for lower troposphere
temperatures over the oceans and the satellite - enhanced
sea surface temperature data.
Jarraud said 16 - 20 percent
of the 2015 rise may be due to El Niño, a natural weather
pattern marked by warming
sea -
surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
My research group has just submitted a paper for publication on the subject
of autumn
sea ice
patterns as a precursor for wintertime snowfall and
surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
In order to understand California's precipitation
patterns and the influence
of El Niño better, Bor - Ting Jong from the Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University and her colleagues used
sea surface temperature and weather data from as far back as 1901.
Coastal impacts
of climate change include rise in
sea level and changes in circulatory and
sea surface temperature patterns.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring
pattern of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.
More Scientific Evidence For CO2's Dubious Climate Impact Emerges Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017 According to the most basic precepts
of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on
sea surface temperatures, glaciers,
sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e., precipitation
patterns).
Burgmann et al (2008) discuss this in terms
of a Pacific Decadal Variation (PDV)-- and describe the
sea surface temperature signature as «characterized by a broad triangular
pattern in the tropical Pacific surrounded by opposite anomalies in the midlatitudes
of the central and western Pacific Basin.»
Sea surface heights are influenced by ocean
temperatures and winds, and so in turn reflect the overarching conditions
of ocean regions, including
patterns like El Niño and La Niña.
D'Aleo and Easterbrook continue to fail to acknowledge the PDO is an aftereffect
of ENSO and that the PDO represents the spatial
pattern of the
sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific, not the actual
sea surface temperatures there.
Index Profile
of the Stadium Wave: ■ Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a monopolar
pattern of sea -
surface -
temperature (SST) anomalies in theNorth Atlantic Ocean.
Publishing in the journal Nature he argued, «The changes are all associated with
patterns of dry - season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated with
sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.»
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly
patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
By examining the spatial
pattern of both types
of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the tropical oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted
of warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing
sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
The PDO represents the spatial
pattern of the
sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific.
In addition, the
pattern of sea surface temperatures at low latitudes is extremely important for regional climate variations (shown, for example, by the increased likelihood
of heavy winter rainfall in California when the eastern tropical Pacific warms in El Niño events).
And the
pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that arise in consequence
of the flux
of ozone into the troposphere (and the resulting change in cloud cover) is intimately related to the GPH anomalies.
As a hydrologist — I would happily predict much more summer rainfall in Australia, India, China, Indonesia and Africa for a decade or three more — based on
patterns of sea surface temperature in the Pacific.
Even while identifying some
of the observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in
surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year
sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider variation in rainfall
patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...