Change in cloud coverage was the primary cause
of sea surface temperature variations, and clouds provided a positive feedback to temperature variations.
Not exact matches
Using different calibration and filtering processes, the two researchers succeeded in combining a wide variety
of available data from
temperature measurements and climate archives in such a way that they were able to compare the reconstructed
sea surface temperature variations at different locations around the globe on different time scales over a period
of 7,000 years.
On a millennial time scale, conventional climate models underestimated the
variations of sea surface temperatures reconstructed from climate archives by a factor
of 50.
While natural climate
variations like El Niño do affect the frequency and severity
of heat waves from one year to the next, the study suggests the increases are mainly linked to long - term changes in
sea surface temperatures.
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
Of course, while short - term changes in
sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs
of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the average global
surface temperature — there is a lot
of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of noise, or natural
variation, in the system.
The extreme cold weather observed across Europe and the east coast
of the US in recent winters could be partly down to natural, long - term
variations in
sea surface temperatures, according to a new study published today.
Researchers from the University
of California Irvine have shown that a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a natural pattern
of variation in North Atlantic
sea surface temperatures that switches between a positive and negative phase every 60 - 70 years — can affect an atmospheric circulation pattern, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the
temperature and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere in winter.
The team used a worldwide climate model that incorporated normal month - to - month
variations in
sea surface temperatures and
sea ice coverage, among other climate factors, to simulate 12,000 years» worth
of weather.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal)
variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in
sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence
of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.
The potential to adapt to increasing
sea -
surface temperatures depends on the extent
of genetic
variation for heat tolerance, the generation time
of the coral host and zooxanthellae, and the strength
of selection.
Drought
variations in the study area significantly correlated with
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Pacific Ocean, suggesting a possible connection
of regional hydroclimatic
variations to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
If you download 1998 - 2009 cloud cover here, and
sea surface temperatures here, you can see that, except for a cloud band from ~ 0 to 10 degrees N, cloudiness is generally less where SST is warmer, though there are lots
of details and spatial
variation that lessen the correlation.
Predicting
sea ice extent is easy if you can mentally calculate wind
variations, momentum,
sea currents, multi year ice compression ratios, tidal synergy with weather patterns, the AO, the
temperature of ice
sea water and air, how cloudy it will be, salinity, pycnocline convection rates,
sea surface to air interface, CO2 exchange, ice thickness distributions.....
An analysis
of the spatial characteristics
of the observed early twentieth - century
surface air
temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar
sea ice
variations.
Suggested mechanisms range from upwelling
of warm deep waters onto the continental shelf in response to
variations in the westerly winds, to an influence
of El Niño — Southern Oscillation on
sea surface temperatures.
But it does say; «Natural climate
variations, which tend to involve localized changes in
sea surface temperature, may have a larger effect on hurricane activity than the more uniform patterns
of global warming...»
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment
of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global
temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts
of data biases in the recent global
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact
of satellite - based observations in
sea surface temperature trends
surface temperature trends»
Given BP, SL, and
sea surface temperature fields, good estimates
of full - column HC
variations can be made at low and middle latitudes.
More Scientific Evidence For CO2's Dubious Climate Impact Emerges Image Source: Robertson and Chilingar, 2017 According to the most basic precepts
of anthropogenic global warming (AGW),
variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on
sea surface temperatures, glaciers,
sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e., precipitation patterns).
While continental
surfaces can reach
temperatures around 100 ◦ C because
of the intense solar and greenhouse heating,
sea surface temperatures remain moderate with a small diurnal
variation because they are thermodynamically controlled by latent - heat cooling
El Ni o an irregular
variation of ocean current that, from January to February, flows off the west coast
of South America, carrying warm, low - salinity, nutrient - poor water to the south; does not usually extend farther than a few degrees south
of the Equator, but occasionally it does penetrate beyond 12 S, displacing the relatively cold Peruvian current; usually short - lived effects, but sometimes last more than a year, raising
sea -
surface temperatures along the coast
of Peru and in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, having disastrous effects on marine life and fishing
It is most prominent in the North Pacific, where fluctuations in the strength
of the winter Aleutian Low pressure system co-vary with North Pacific
sea surface temperatures, and are linked to decadal
variations in atmospheric circulation,
sea surface temperatures and ocean circulation throughout the whole Pacific Basin.
Burgmann et al (2008) discuss this in terms
of a Pacific Decadal
Variation (PDV)-- and describe the
sea surface temperature signature as «characterized by a broad triangular pattern in the tropical Pacific surrounded by opposite anomalies in the midlatitudes
of the central and western Pacific Basin.»
This does not appear to be indicative
of anthropogenic influences, but rather natural
Sea Surface Temperature variations.
That is, the animation
of the GISS maps and the data GISS provides with those maps show that the trends in global
sea surface temperature are driven by the multidecadal
variations in the strengths and magnitudes
of El Niño and La Niña events.
They have a significant effect on water salinity, pollution, carbon and nutrient levels,
sea surface temperature, and other physical properties in these regions
of the ocean, and the
variations they cause can, in turn, affect the well - being
of marine ecosystems and climate.
By examining the spatial pattern
of both types
of climate
variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the tropical oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted
of warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing
sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
In addition, the pattern
of sea surface temperatures at low latitudes is extremely important for regional climate
variations (shown, for example, by the increased likelihood
of heavy winter rainfall in California when the eastern tropical Pacific warms in El Niño events).
Even while identifying some
of the observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in
surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year
sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider
variation in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...
That is Spencer's point, that the all
of the
temperature change does not appear to be dependent on
sea surface temperature, ENSO
variations.
Decadal
variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern
of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode
of interannual variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.
I hypothesise that natural
variations can account for the vast majority
of the warming seen within the bounds
of certainty in the
surface and
sea temperature records in the industrial era.
Regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in
sea surface temperature variations throughout most
of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing related to ENSO is more important in the far southern portion, off the west coast
of Baja California.
It's a mode
of natural
variation in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean which is indicated by
sea surface temperature in that region, as well as patterns
of atmospheric pressure,
surface winds over the ocean, even precipitation over a much larger region.
This is achieved through the study
of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the
sea - level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the
sea -
surface temperature variations.
The new atlas could also improve understanding
of climate phenomena like the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, a
variation in North Atlantic
sea -
surface temperatures that hasn't been tracked long enough to tell if it is a transitory event, forced by human intervention in the climate system, or a natural long - term oscillation.
The decadal
variations of the AMOC obtained in that way are shown to precede the observed decadal
variations in basin - wide North Atlantic
sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which strongly impacts societally important quantities such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall.
Note also David Stockwell's new accumulative solar forcing theory which explains global
temperatures AND it explains the leading phase of solar variations relative to Sea Surface T
temperatures AND it explains the leading phase
of solar
variations relative to
Sea Surface TemperaturesTemperatures.
This is achieved through the study
of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the
sea - level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the
sea -
surface temperature variations... We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles
variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI
variations, thus implying the necessary existence
of an amplification mechanism, although without pointing to which one.
«The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a climate index based upon patterns
of variation in
sea surface temperature of the North Pacific from 1900 to the present (Mantua et al. 1997).
Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural
variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence
of human - induced climate change.3 The signature
of global warming has also been identified in recent changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern
of variability in
sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
This eastward moving pulse
of anomalous
variations in rainfall, wind,
sea surface temperatures, and clouds in the tropics typically recurs every 30 — 60 days, creating a pattern that profoundly influences global weather and climate systems, including monsoons, tropical cyclone activity, and El Niño — Southern Oscillation events.
Backing that up, NASA says that 1)
sea surface temperature fluctuations (El Niño - La Niña) can cause global
temperature deviation
of about 0.2 °C; 2) solar maximums and minimums produce
variations of only 0.1 °C, warmer or cooler; 3) aerosols from natural sources such as volcanic eruptions (Mount Pinatubo for example) have caused average cooling
of 0.3 °C, but recent eruptions have had not had significant effect.
Warming
of sea surface temperatures and alteration
of ocean chemistry associated with anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will have profound consequences for a broad range
of species, but the potential for seasonal
variation to modify species and ecosystem responses to these stressors has received little attention.