Yes, but this study claims that by selecting those die which cast a series which corresponds by chance to the realization
of sea surface temps and then through selection of those which correspond to hiatus surface temps, over a bunch of initial conditions, it's a better comparison than between models output and reality.
Not exact matches
Includes all
of the Coastal package features plus Offshore
Sea Surface Temps, extended Weather, Wind and Wave Forecasts, US & Canadian Alerts.
The
sea is in a constant state
of flux, so the
temp at the
surface is very close to that at 100».
This means that, e.g., if heat moves from the tropical
surface water (
temp about 25C) to
surface waters at lower
temps, the net effect is a subsidence
of sea level — even without any change in total heat content.
Hurricanes do have a deep
surface mixing effect that normal tropical convection doesn't produce, and that would be expected to result in greater transfer
of heat to the atmosphere, but it gets complicated in a hurry; see the realclimate discussion
of the Walker circulation for example, as well as the link between hurricanes and
sea surface temps.
Given that the other important variables (
sea surface temps, depth
of the warm layer, and atmospheric moisture) are all predicted to increase, it seems hard to make the claim that tropical cyclones will be unchanged, just as it seemed unwise to claim that Lyman et al's «Recent cooling
of the upper oceans» meant that climate models had fatal flaws.
There is good evidence that the answer to both these question is no: (The insensitivy
of the results to methodology
of selecting rural stations, the Parker et al windy days study, and the fact that data from satellite skin
surface measurements, from
sea surface temperatures, deep ocean
temps as we as tropospheric
temps are all in good agreement).
(> 70 %
of the Pale Blue Dot is covered in H2O, so
sea surface temps can swamp land
surface temps, even tho the latter may «outnumber» the former by orders
of magnitude.)
It's not entirely clear to me whether he's talking about the peak in
sea surface temps or whether he was expecting the January UAH data to have peaked, but February came back and blew January out
of the water (so to speak).
«One
of the major modes
of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area
of warm
sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.
Source: press release for Myers et al., 2015
Sea Levels 2 - 4 m Higher Until ~ 5,000 Years Ago Imply Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -LSB-.
Sea Levels 2 - 4 m Higher Until ~ 5,000 Years Ago Imply
Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -L
Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution
of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to
sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -LSB-.
sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius
of surface warmth yields -L
surface warmth yields -LSB-...]
And also, no mention
of clouds and the 31C limit on tropical
sea surface temp.
The correlation not causation
of declining solar cycles and declining PDO and south Atlantic
sea surface temp is getting interesting to watch.
A CURRENT EXAMPLE
OF EXTREME
SEA SURFACE TEMPS AFFECTING THE EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT HIT THE U.S. WEST
If
sea OHC has continually & steadily been rising, and since this mass x Cp is 93 %
of the total mass x Cp
of the globe, then obviously if a OWASLT was reported, then it would also be steadily climbing year after year on the same steady rate (even during the last 10 years when the rate -
of - rise
of surface - only
temps was less than the 1990's).
«Global Warming» has been sold since 1988 on the basis
of the land
surface and
sea surface temp reports.
2) The satellite tropospheric and
sea surface (SST) data differ from the HADCRUT
surface temp anomaly, with the present temperatures
of both right at the same level as in 1991 (while Fig. 1 here shows an increase over 1991
of about 0.25 °C).
Oh, but they did say which set
of models were selected for showing
sea surface temps.
But it actually makes sense: El Ninos raise atmospheric
temps because a deep pool
of warm water in the western Pacific gets spread out over a larger area, raising
sea surface temperatures over a big chunk
of the Pacific.
We have only tiny, slow increases in
surface temps and tiny, slow increases in
sea level rise, which have never ever been a problem for the inhabitants
of the earth to deal with.
If it takes over 100 - 200 years, as some estimate, to turn over the ocean the warming
of the
sea surface will continue to warm the deep ocean for decades even if the
sea surface temp falls as long as the
surface temp remains above the moving average
temp for whatever the ocean turnover rate is.
There is a massive drop in temperatures from the
surface of the
sea to the underlying depths in the tropics and virtually none in the polar areas, in fact a lot
of the polar
surface temps are at or below zero.
The thermal expansion coefficient
of sea water (in units
of 10 ^ -7 / °C) ranges from 254 (at
surface / -2 °C) to 1269 (at ~ 2000m / 2 °C) with higher values with increasing
temps (especially at the
surface).
Steve, when TREND
of UAH - ocean matches SST well, while TREND
of UAH - land is considderably colder than ground based land — you just focus on the fact that UAH
temps oscillates on very short term more than
sea surface temps?