Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, the chart below, which takes into account 30, 15 and five years» worth
of seasonal data for oil prices, illustrates Brian's point.
Not exact matches
Due to the number
of seasonal workers in Canada, there is naturally a great deal
of seasonality in the
data, so it is helpful to look at year - over-year numbers.
The shifting timing
of Lunar New Year celebrations in China, seeing the entire nation break for a week - long holiday, often creates
seasonal distortions in Chinese economic
data during this time
of the year.
The problem with the
data, however, was that they were inflated by out -
of - whack
seasonal - adjustment factors.
While the extent
of the
seasonal problem will be debated, monitoring year - over-year growth rates is a matter
of simple prudence at this juncture not only for ECRI's indexes but also for other economic
data.
But as I noted last week, much
of that effect is actually tied to the very heavy downward
seasonal adjustment that accompanies initial claims
data in January.
Removing the
seasonal impact
of Chinese New Year on the NBS
data for March therefore suggests that the underlying growth
of China's manufacturing sector remains weaker than the published
data suggest.
However, while the path
of least resistance seems higher, with
seasonal factors and solid economic
data also favoring the bulls, stocks are clearly overbought and multiples are expanding.
Some, therefore, have argued that this month's
data may be less important for the monetary outlook given the better tone
of data leave some room for a headline miss, as well as
seasonal issues affecting the August
data.
*
Seasonal adjustment removes normal seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
Seasonal adjustment removes normal
seasonal variations, enabling analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in t
seasonal variations, enabling analysis
of monthly changes and fundamental trends in the
data.
Seeking to further explain the weakness, a number
of economists emphasized the recurring pattern evident in quarterly GDP numbers since 2010 — whereby first - quarter growth has averaged less than half the rate for the rest
of the year — raising suspicions that
seasonal effects may be skewing the
data.
Interpretation
of data on imports is complicated by differences in the
seasonal adjustments calculated on a monthly and quarterly basis.
Examples
of these risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the impact
of: adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing levels
of unemployment, underemployment and the volatility
of fuel prices, declines in the securities and real estate markets, and perceptions
of these conditions that decrease the level
of disposable income
of consumers or consumer confidence; adverse events impacting the security
of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts
of piracy, and other international events; the risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally; our expansion into and investments in new markets; breaches in
data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks; the spread
of epidemics and viral outbreaks; adverse incidents involving cruise ships; changes in fuel prices and / or other cruise operating costs; any impairment
of our tradenames or goodwill; our hedging strategies; our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage; our substantial indebtedness, including the ability to raise additional capital to fund our operations, and to generate the necessary amount
of cash to service our existing debt; restrictions in the agreements governing our indebtedness that limit our flexibility in operating our business; the significant portion
of our assets pledged as collateral under our existing debt agreements and the ability
of our creditors to accelerate the repayment
of our indebtedness; volatility and disruptions in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; overcapacity in key markets or globally; our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss
of key personnel; future changes relating to how external distribution channels sell and market our cruises; our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services to certain ships and certain other services; delays in our shipbuilding program and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments; future increases in the price
of, or major changes or reduction in, commercial airline services;
seasonal variations in passenger fare rates and occupancy levels at different times
of the year; our ability to keep pace with developments in technology; amendments to our collective bargaining agreements for crew members and other employee relation issues; the continued availability
of attractive port destinations; pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions; changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes in which we operate; and other factors set forth under «Risk Factors» in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and subsequent filings by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
A limitation
of this study is the use
of a
data collection period that fails to capture
seasonal variations.
As you can see, the
data is a bit volatile - most
of which is
seasonal variation.
The model also incorporates
data on how people typically move between home, work, school, and shopping; on sexual behavior (Zika can be spread through unprotected sex); and on factors that affect mosquito populations, such as
seasonal temperature swings, rainfall, and breeding sites such as caches
of old tires.
It was only when he'd gathered a year
of data that he realised there was a
seasonal cycle.
The team used real - time
seasonal rainfall, temperature and El Niño forecasts, issued at the start
of the year, combined with
data from active surveillance studies, in a probabilistic model
of dengue epidemics to produce robust dengue risk estimates for the entire year.
Now an upgraded, more sensitive experiment called XENON100, also at Gran Sasso, reports that after four full years
of data, they see no evidence for a
seasonal modulation (arxiv.org/abs/1701.00769).
We identified individual - level diurnal and
seasonal mood rhythms in cultures across the globe, using
data from millions
of public Twitter messages.
The
data obtained from this study provide a basis for more rapid, cost - effective clinical trials to evaluate new influenza drugs or to determine the efficacy
of candidate vaccines for both
seasonal and pandemic influenza.
An analysis
of 10 years» worth
of data on human influenza B viruses has shed new light on the pathogen which can cause the
seasonal flu.
Seasonal Shift
Of course, looking for trends in tornado
data is fraught with potential pitfalls owing to changes in how tornadoes have been reported over time.
The annual UK Flusurvey aims to collect
data from men and women
of all ages around the country, in order to map trends as
seasonal flu takes hold, enabling researchers to analyse how the virus spreads and who it affects.
Then, they looked at satellite
data that measures variations in Earth's gravitational field to track the long - term and
seasonal movements
of water between the oceans and the continents.
«The combined sea ice
data suggest that the
seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most
of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods
of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.
Using
data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), citizen scientists are examining images
of Mars» South Pole mapping the size and directions
of seasonal fans.
Jorge Vazquez - Aguirre is in charge
of the climatology working group at the National Meteorological Service
of Mexico with operational duties related to climatic
data,
seasonal prediction, drought monitoring and climate services.
Moukouba Moutoumounkata is a Meteorologist,
Data Scientist, specialized in operational
seasonal and interannual climate forecasting at the National Meteorological Department
of the Agence Nationale d'Aviation Civile (ANAC Congo) in Brazzaville, Congo.
For example, few
data are available for the polar winter, and it is not known whether aragonite - undersaturated areas decrease in size with the
seasonal freezing
of sea ice.
Data analyses have found an increase
of drought intensity at many locations [130]--[131] The magnitude
of change depends on the drought index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to separate the effect
of shifting
seasonal precipitation and confirms an overall drought intensification [37].
For example,
data may fluctuate depending on cell type, timing
of data collection (during the cell cycle, or diurnal,
seasonal, or annual variations), developmental stage, and various external conditions.
Using
data from an observational study, we used sinusoidal regression models to evaluate
seasonal variation
of nutrient intake, PA, and body weight as amplitude and phase (a time while the measure was at peak).
GW: A tangible lack
of data and facts, plus the collapse
of seasonal fashion is putting a lot
of pressure on the way the industry works today.
This pattern is more than a simple by - product
of fickle millennial dating culture, it's a common trend that's been labelled «
Seasonal Dating Disorder Major online dating site has contacted law enforcement and high - profile security firm FireEye to investigate a
data breach.
Regardless
of seasonal issues and totals, the
data for months 5/6 is, I think, striking.
Other types
of sector rotation investing may center around
seasonal or yearly trends with
data supporting advantages to rotating in and out
of different profitable categories throughout the year.
The February - to - April period has «traditionally marked the slowest period
of the year for domestic residential real estate loan growth, and our review
of recent
data clearly indicates that the
seasonal deceleration will be more pronounced» in the banks» second quarter results which begin next week, he said.
The greater Sacramento resale housing market exhibited traditional
seasonal behavior in the month
of December 2013 according to
data provided by TrendGraphix and reported by Lyon Real Estate.
Another way
of visualizing the same
data is by subtracting out the
seasonal effect and observing the trend plus the random component.
The
seasonal aspects
of the
data are modelled via a cyclic smoother on day -
of - year or numeric month -
of - year.
For the future,
data assimilation might help us to keep the state
of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on
seasonal and decadal time scales.
Climate modelers are very thankful for the existence
of the
seasonal cycle, for providing such a beautiful
data set with which we can test a models quantitative response to a well - defined change in external forcing.
But there is a flip side to this point: suppose that we had no
data on the amplitude
of the
seasonal cycle — how certain would we be that our models contained the right physics?
Since this does not include any climatic variations (not even the
seasonal cycle), let alone a test period with a different CO2 level, this
data test is unable to constrain the upper limit
of the climate sensitivity range.
Soon had also calculated the impact
of the AO on the Frobisher Bay
data and, unsurprisingly, used the
seasonal correlation that had the highest correlation.
They can be applied in a consistent way to different types
of data (historical,
seasonal forecasts, climate projections, etc.).
The
seasonal amplitude was 54 ppm which was roughly 20 ppm more than the
data measured at the coast
of the Baltic sea at that times.
Spencer posted a Watts» site within a year (paper forthcoming) that the
seasonal variation and long term trend
of Mauna Loa CO2
data in its 13C / 12C fraction under an F - Test revealed the variation to be the very same.
Suess was wrong; the 13C: 12C ratio
of the Mauna Loa
seasonal and long term trend
data are identical as measured by the F - Test.