Here we show that a new low ice cover state has appeared from 2007 onwards, which is distinct from the normal state
of seasonal sea ice variation, suggesting a bifurcation has occurred from one attractor to two.
Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections
of seasonal sea ice cover.»
Variability, trends, and predictability
of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea.
It seems clear that the SSTAs are a function
of seasonal sea ice loss at the surface.
During the melt season the albedo of seasonal ice is less than multiyear Seasonal ice absorbs and transmits more sunlight to ocean than multiyear Albedo evolution
of seasonal sea ice has 7 phases
Not exact matches
Every year Aleksey Marchenko
of The University Center in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago north
of Scandinavia, leads students across the chilly waters
of the Barents
Sea to study the
seasonal ice pack.
According to the findings, the extent
of Arctic
sea ice and its
seasonal distribution clearly have broad impacts on Arctic climate that extend beyond the Arctic Ocean itself and have important implications for the future
of the Arctic system.
This suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
of 400 ppm may be sufficient to greatly reduce the spatial extent and
seasonal persistence
of Arctic
sea ice.
«This study was the first to quantitatively elucidate that
ice - ocean albedo feedback is a primary driver
of seasonal and yearly variations in Arctic
sea ice retreat,» says Kay I. Ohshima.
A big «hole» appeared in August in the
ice pack in the Beaufort and Chukchi
seas, north
of Alaska, when thinner
seasonal ice surrounded by thicker, older
ice melted.
The research is timely given the extreme winter
of 2017 - 2018, including record warm Arctic and low
sea ice, record - breaking polar vortex disruption, record - breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe «bomb cyclones» and costly nor'easter s, said Judah Cohen, director
of seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author
of the study.
The
ice floating on top
of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding
seas shrinks in a
seasonal cycle from mid-March until mid-September.
The team, which includes Professor Baldwin, will lead innovative new research, which aims to advance current understanding
of three key conditions that influence
seasonal weather across the continent — the North Atlantic upper - ocean heat content, Arctic
sea -
ice, and the stratosphere.
But «while the Arctic maximum is not as important as the
seasonal minimum, the long - term decline is a clear indicator
of climate change,» Walt Meier, a
sea ice researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, said in a statement.
«The combined
sea ice data suggest that the
seasonal Arctic
sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most
of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods
of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.
We were particularly interested in the nature
of this relationship because
of the hypothesized
seasonal movement
of krill to inshore waters around the Antarctic Peninsula in winter, rapid changes in the climate and
sea ice patterns
of the Antarctic peninsula [15], [16] and the known relationships between baleen whales and krill.
Seasonal atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic
sea ice in an ensemble
of coupled model simulations.
The extent
of Arctic
sea ice reached the maximum area
of its
seasonal cycle on March 7th coming in at 14.42 million km2.
Continuous annually layered strata provide the best kind
of geological archive in which to search for a «golden spike» — these form on the floors
of oxygen - starved
seas and lakes, in glacial
ice, and in corals and trees with
seasonal growth rings
Anthony, R., Aster, R., Rowe, C., Wiens, D., Effects
of seasonal and secular changes in Antarctic
sea ice on microseismic noise, Eos Trans.
The forecast scheme for the September
sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for the
seasonal prediction
of river streamflow.
For example, few data are available for the polar winter, and it is not known whether aragonite - undersaturated areas decrease in size with the
seasonal freezing
of sea ice.
Locally, declining
sea ice is affecting the feeding and migration patterns
of polar bears, whales, walrus and seals, and the people who live in the Arctic and rely on
seasonal ice for their livelihoods.
Multi-panel paintings in oil and smaller paintings on canvas and aluminum formats explore the tundra fragmented into puddles and bits
of ice with small cascades flowing over the rocks, reminders
of accelerated
seasonal changes melting
ice fields and
sea ice.
The sampling issues arise from the fact that
sea ice is highly dynamic with lots
of spatial and
seasonal variability so that measurements from individual moorings, submarine sonar tracks, and aircraft flights can only construct an incomplete picture
of the evolution
of the total Arctic
sea ice volume.
See: Perovich, D. K., T. C. Grenfell, B. Light, and P. V. Hobbs (2002),
Seasonal evolution
of the albedo
of multiyear Arctic
sea ice, J. Geophys.
If polar bears have been around for few hundred thousand years they have experienced a variety
of environmental changes in the Arctic, including periods when there was more
sea ice than present as well as periods when
seasonal sea ice was considerably less than at present.
However if we have a similar profile
of volume loss as in the preceding two years then random variability looks very unlikely and I'll be veering to the following viewpoint — that something new and radical has happened in the
seasonal cycle
of sea -
ice loss, a new factor that in principle could have the power to make a virtually
sea ice free state in September plausible this decade.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the
seasonal effect
of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Without any land, the effects
of seasonal cycles are reduced and it is also harder to build up a thick
ice sheet (the basal lubrication
of sea ice being large).
These result in westerly winds (clockwise around the pole as viewed from below) just above the edge
of Antarctica in the region where the
seasonal sea ice forms, ie, the west wind drift:
Polar bears have optimal habitat requirements with respect to food supply (seals) and this food supply hinges critically on the
seasonal extent
of sea ice.
The problem with the ECMWF winter
seasonal forecasts has been the specification
of climatological
sea ice.
In both the Arctic and the Antarctic «natural causes» (the seasons) are responsible for the
seasonal decrease / increase in
sea ice extent, which are,
of course, much larger than the average annual change.
Regions
of rapid
sea ice change: An inter-hemispheric
seasonal comparison.
Seasonal sea ice changes in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979 - 20
sea ice changes in the Amundsen
Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979 - 20
Sea, Antarctica, over the period
of 1979 - 2014.
As we near the final month
of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, NASA scientists are watching the annual
seasonal melting
of the Arctic
sea ice cover.
An overall warming in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction
of sea -
ice extent by 15 %, with maximum decrease in summer and autumn, consistent with observed
seasonal sea -
ice changes.
Given the apparent importance
of the MDCs in determining the
seasonal and interannual variations in
sea ice extent, it is very difficult to discriminate a global warming signal from the data because
of the short data record.
The Arctic's
sea ice pack thawed to its third - lowest summer level on record, up slightly from the
seasonal melt
of the past two years but continuing an overall decline symptomatic
of climate change, U.S. scientists said on Thursday.
Exploitation
of improved and novel
sea ice information for the initialization and evaluation
of weekly - to -
seasonal probabilistic
sea ice forecasting systems.
Liu, J., M. Song, R. Horton, and Y. Hu, 2015: Revisiting the potential
of melt pond fraction as a predictor for the
seasonal Arctic
sea ice extent minimum.
A map
of sea ice extent at the climax
of the Last Glacial Maximum (both perennial and
seasonal ice), prepared with the help
of a colleague, makes it possible to discuss what genetic and fossil evidence can tell us about the probable effects
of glacial conditions on polar bears and ringed seals.
I recently gave a talk about the powerful relationships among various co - factors including
seasonal sunlight,
seasonal temperature change,
sea level, and even tectonic activity that extends back to the bipolar Quaternary
ice - ages and interglacial warm periods
of last 2.6 million years.
«The combined
sea ice data suggest that the
seasonal Arctic
sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most
of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods
of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.»
Evidence suggests that the negative phase
of the Arctic Oscillation was driven in part by warm air (air warmed by the dramatic
seasonal loss
of Arctic
sea ice) 9 as well as by changes in snow cover over Eurasia driven by climate change.10 This event is part
of an emerging trend in which a warming climate may paradoxically bring colder, snowier winters to northern Europe and the eastern United States.11
Much
of the Bearded Seal's habitat encompasses
seasonal ice zones where first - year
sea ice is renewed every winter but melts completely every summer.
This study assesses the ability
of the Canadian
Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the Canadian Earth - system Model 2 (CanESM2) to predict and simulate snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian
Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the Canadian Earth - system Model 2 (CanESM2) to predict and simulate snow and
sea ice from
seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian
seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector.
Improvements in
seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization
of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and
sea -
ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.
The Bering
Sea, Barents
Sea, Baffin Bay, the
Sea of Okhotsk, and Hudson Bay are all
seasonal ice zones.