The following chart (from Too Little to Lock In) provides a view of the sort of valuations we typically see at the beginning
of secular bull market advances, versus where we are at present.
Not exact matches
Given the extent and maturity
of the recent
advance, it's very odd that analysts are now beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a
secular bull market.
An average bear
market within a «
secular» bear
market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course
of 3 - 4 separate
bull - bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 %
of the preceding
bull market advance.
If the
market is ever to enjoy a
secular bull market period again, we have to accept the potential for valuations to achieve levels that have corresponded to the beginning
of those
secular advances, but that's a very long - term issue.
During the
secular bull market years
of the 1980s and 1990s, the general slope
of the
advance matched that
of the 1940s and 1950s, and now the sideways movement is proceeding roughly according to the script.