However, betting it now means buying the bad end
of sharp money moves, minimizing and potentially eliminating the previously existing line value.
In today's AAC final between Cincinnati and SMU, we have a great case
of sharp money moving the line.
Not exact matches
However, Ohio State has
moved from -13.5 to -17 around the market despite just 33 %
of tickets, a clear indication that
sharper money is taking the Buckeyes.
For the record, it is still early and very few bets have come down on this game, however, two Steam
Moves (BetUS and CRIS) have already been triggered, indicating
sharp money already likes one side
of this matchup.
Betting lines
move for many reasons; injury updates, weather, etc., but «betting line movement» that goes against the «betting percentages» is an excellent indicator
of Smart
Money, also referred to as
Sharp Money.
If a line
moves in one direction, but the Public is on the other side, it implies that «bigger» — and normally «smarter» or «
sharper» —
money is on the side
of the line
move.
As you can see, steady OKC
money pushed the line up to 3 before our Bet Signals triggered a Steam
Move on Houston, indicating that
sharp money entered the market to buyback the value
of Rockets +3.
Every sport book today is computerized, Back in my day
money always
moved the line if a player was respected, and if the squares tossed enough
money on a game most books would
move the line a little, However the big books would just sit and even take layoffs from the small stores, They knew even if the squares got hot in the end the juice would eat em up.Gone are the days when Billy Walters and his crew would
move the line 3 and 4 points, I'm talking sides not totals, Forget about what they did to the horseshoe with totals in the NBA, Back then you could catch small non computerized stores with bad lines to begin with, imagine a three point
move and the small store or corner bookie is off on the line a few points to begin with, I could catch some game with 6 and seven point advantages, with computers today if you can catch a half or one point advantage your lucky.Even if you know the group
moving the line most
of these store
move the lines on air, when I say air they just watch the screen from D.B. And
move the line before they even get hit, Hell even the big stores have the
sharps on small limits per call.
Also, when the spread
moves in the opposite direction
of the public betting percentage it's known as reverse line movement which is an excellent indicator
of sharp money.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the action
of their
sharpest bettors, and they won't
move the number based on public
money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited
sharp action on the other side.
This influx
of bets and public
money on one side ends up creating value on the other side; the line may
move and
sharps will come in to grab it, or the line won't
move and sportsbooks will end up with more liability on the public side.
The Lightning are currently getting only 36 %
of moneyline bets for the opener but have
moved from -116 to -130 at Pinnacle, indicating some
sharp money on Tampa Bay to grab a series lead.
We did track
sharp money on Golden State in the opener, where they got less than 50 %
of spread bets but
moved from -7 to -7.5.
Texas at USC:
Sharper money appears to be all over USC in this one, opening -14 at some
of the
sharp books like Bookmaker and already
moving up to -17.
As noted in an earlier article, the Pinnacle MLB steam
move has been incredibly profitable for bettors and it's one
of the best identifiers
of sharp money.
For example if 90 %
of the public is betting on Miami -3 to win, but the line
moves to Miami -2, you'll know
Sharp Money came in on the other side.
Was the line
move due to
sharp money, public
money, or a mix
of both?
I should start by noting that the line can
move for a variety
of reasons including injuries, weather and officials, but most
of the time oddsmakers shade their opening lines to account for public
money on the favorite and then allow
sharp money from their most respected clients to shape the line.
New Mexico has
moved 5.5 points since opening despite getting just 40 %
of tickets, so clearly
sharp money taking the Lobos on the road.
The Beavers have gone just 1 - 5 ATS this season but
sharp money appears to be on them this weekend — they've
moved from +12.5 to +10 despite getting just 25 %
of spread tickets.
If the line
moves against those public betting percentages, it's known as reverse line movement which is an excellent indicator
of sharp money.
Right now 62 %
of spread bets are taking the Tar Heels, and it looks like public tickets were the reason for the line
move rather than
sharp money.
When the line
moves in the opposite direction
of our public betting data, it's known as reverse line movement — a strong indicator that
sharp money likes Bo Ryan's Badgers.
For anybody unfamiliar, steam
moves are the result
of a sudden overload
of money placed at multiple sportsbooks and, in most cases, occur due to betting groups, syndicates and / or respected
sharp players with the resources to get down heavily at multiple locations, all at once.
Betting market: This game is very interesting, not only because it's one
of the few Week 17 contests that involves two teams with something to play for, but because the line has
moved from Falcons -3 up to -4, despite no
sharp money to speak
of.
Despite receiving just 41 %
of spread bets, Dallas has actually
moved from +6.5 to +6 indicating that there may be some
sharp money on the road dog.
Tennessee has only covered in 2
of the last 8 games vs. Alabama and an early
move from -14 to -16.5 is almost entirely due to
sharp money, but there may be value on the Volunteers if they reach +17.
That 6.5 - point line
move indicates that
sharp money is on the under, which is confirmed by several
of our bet signals including a steam
move triggered on Under 66.
One
of the best ways to identify
sharp money is by looking for reverse line movement, which is when the spread
moves in the opposite direction
of our public betting trends.
Although the majority
of bettors were taking Wake Forest, this
sharp money caused Kansas State to
move from +1 to -2 within minutes.
However, most
of the
sharp market like CRIS and 5Dimes has
moved Villanova to -2.5, meaning the smart
money has clearly come in on the Wildcats so far.
Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages are another excellent indicator of sharp money, and it also helps explain how the line could move two - points despite the majority of bettors taking Florida S
Money percentages that contradict our ticket percentages are another excellent indicator
of sharp money, and it also helps explain how the line could move two - points despite the majority of bettors taking Florida S
money, and it also helps explain how the line could
move two - points despite the majority
of bettors taking Florida State.
Even though most
of the
money was taking Wake Forest, sportsbooks
moved against the
money due to
sharp action.
In other words, this line has
moved largely based on public perception — not because
of sharp money.
Their analysis includes a break down
of historical betting trends, dissecting the major line
moves, and pinpointing the best
sharp money indicators.
The line graph below shows a perfect illustration
of initial
sharp money on Boise before an influx
of public
money to
move the line back down:
There have been no bet signals triggered on Seattle which means this half - point
move is solely due to public
money and not any sort
of sharp money.
Right now 76 %
of tickets are taking the Buckeyes, but the market is unwilling to
move to -3 right now, an indication that books are expecting
sharp money when he hits Oklahoma +3.
The only way to know if
sharp money is involved in
moving the line (not all line
moves are
sharp incidentally, you have to seek each game out individually) is to match the %
of public wages relative to the line
move.
Our goal is to ensure that our readers and subscribers are able to follow this
sharp money, and there are a number
of tricks used to identify what is responsible for line
moves across the sports betting marketplace.
Even though
sharp money has clearly taken the under in this game, most
of that value has already been sucked out with that 4 - point line
move.
This has
moved the line on Real Madrid from +158 to +149, but bettors should be careful to note that this is a mix
of public and
sharp money, rather than
sharp money alone.
Although there are a number
of steam
moves and
sharp money indicators triggered on California, most
of them came when the spread was significantly lower.
Only 25 %
of total bets were on the Over so that was
sharp money moving the total, but bettors late on the steam were not able to cash in.
When the line
moves against our public betting trends it's referred to as reverse line movement — an excellent indicator
of sharp money.
It should be noted that most
of our
sharp money indicators took Tennessee from +4 to +3, while most
of the sports betting marketplace has already
moved to Titans +2.
This reverse line movement indicates that
sharp money is taking the Titans, but perhaps more notable is the fact that the line
moved past the key number
of 10.
Swansea are getting nearly 70 %
of moneyline tickets to win at home but the line has barely
moved in their favor, so we've clearly seen some
sharp money hit the draw here.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff
of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line
moves, public betting trends,
sharp money indicators (action from professional bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check back often.
We saw a prime example
of that last year when public
money caused the Panthers to
move from -3.5 to -4.5 in Super Bowl 50 despite several
sharp money indicators on the Broncos.