Sentences with phrase «of simple climate models»

In particular, there exists a long history of simple climate models.

If the mathematics of simple climate models fail to provide us with robust solutions and if the arithmatic of complex climate models produce similar outcomes (roughly the same results but still non-robust), why not solve the climate issue with philosophy.

Not exact matches

The researchers from Wageningen University & Research, Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia, University of East Anglia and the Center for International Forestry Research analysed the spatially distributed pattern of hydrological drought, that is the drought in groundwater recharge, in Borneo using a simple transient water balance model driven by monthly climate data from the period 1901 - 2015.

Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple model.

Over the next decade a few scientists devised simple mathematical models of the climate, and turned up feedbacks that could make the system surprisingly variable.

In a recent study, Mathias Trachsel (Dept. of Biology, University of Bergen) and Atle Nesje (Dept. of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Uni Research Climate) used simple statistical models to assess and quantify the relative importance of summer temperature and winter precipitation for annual mass balances of eight Scandinavian glaciers.

For the study «Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaiʻi,» published this week in Natural Hazards, the research team developed a simple model to assess future erosion hazards under higher sea levels — taking into account historical changes of Hawaiʻi shorelines and the projected acceleration of sea level rise reported from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The model is simple and straightforward,» says Nico Bauer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

There are two possibilities: 1) using a climate model, this implies a perfect knowledge of all involved climatic mechanisms, and nobody has such a knowledge yet; 2) use a simpler phenomenological approach.

Moreover, similar answers were found in different climate models, suggesting that this is a very simple way of ascertaining some of the mechanisms that can explain climate system response to climate change.

Example of a simple linear regression model of climate change.

He promoted the use of water stable isotopomers for reconstructing past climate changes from ice cores and with associated atmospheric modelling using both dynamically simple and General Circulation Models (GCMs).

Another approach uses the response of climate models, most often simple climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., models, most often simple climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., 2006).

«Simple physics (effect of [sea - level rise] on storm surge) and simple thermodynamics (i.e. Clausius - Clapeyron) are valid whether or not we can trust the models to get the specifics dynamical linkages between climate change and extreme weather events right (and I'm deeply skeptical the models are up to this task at present).&Simple physics (effect of [sea - level rise] on storm surge) and simple thermodynamics (i.e. Clausius - Clapeyron) are valid whether or not we can trust the models to get the specifics dynamical linkages between climate change and extreme weather events right (and I'm deeply skeptical the models are up to this task at present).&simple thermodynamics (i.e. Clausius - Clapeyron) are valid whether or not we can trust the models to get the specifics dynamical linkages between climate change and extreme weather events right (and I'm deeply skeptical the models are up to this task at present).»

linking probabilistic simple climate models, complex Earth system models, and econometric analyses of historical weathering and climate impacts to project future risks associated with climate change and improve estimates of the social cost of carbon.

In a recently published interview, Paul Hawken, an environmentalist, and Executive Director of Project Drawdown, a global coalition of researchers, scientists, and economists that models the impacts of global warming, made a spot - on observation about the pitfalls of seeking a simple, single solution to climate change.

A comprehensive list of advanced, comfort and convenience - enhancing options will include Bi-HID headlamps, an Adaptive Front Lighting System (AFS), Automatic High Beam (AHB), automatic climate control, Smart Entry and Push Start, a Skyview panoramic sunroof, the Toyota Touch and Go navigation system, a JBL Premium audio system and, standard on Lounge grade models, Simple Intelligent Park Assist (SIPA).

However, the general circulation models are, at present, timeconsuming and expensive to run, and, despite the known shortcomings of the one - dimensional models, most available predictions of climate change have been made using the simpler models.

(This genre of one - dimensional and two - dimensional models lay between the rudimentary, often qualitative models covered in the essay on Simple Models of Climate and the elaborate three - dimensional General Circulation Models of the Atmospmodels lay between the rudimentary, often qualitative models covered in the essay on Simple Models of Climate and the elaborate three - dimensional General Circulation Models of the Atmospmodels covered in the essay on Simple Models of Climate and the elaborate three - dimensional General Circulation Models of the AtmospModels of Climate and the elaborate three - dimensional General Circulation Models of the AtmospModels of the Atmosphere.)

If we had done a simple back - of - the - envelope estimate, surely someone would have criticized us for not using a climate model... Besides we also looked into regional patterns and the sea - ice response in our paper, something one can not do without a climate model.

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations oh hemispheric temperature and global ocean heat content.

Three IPCC climate models, recent NASA Aqua satellite data, and a simple 3 - layer climate model are used together to demonstrate that the IPCC climate models are far too sensitive, resulting in their prediction of too much global warming in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

simple «model» and with a climate sensitivity of 0.75 °C.

To get an idea of why this is, we can start with the simplest 1D energy balance equilibrium climate model:

In this simple model, the steady perturbation changes the climate in a highly linear manner — increasing r again to 30 would add the same change on top of that shown for 26 to 28, and r = 27 would sit half - way between the cases shown.

Some of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude of fingerprints for different external forcing factors in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with climate response to other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some of them use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and climate model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases / anthropogenic forcing, and some are even based only on observations.

Even really simple, naive models do a good job of reproducing climate.

Interestingly, our results are actually pretty consistent with a lot of the recent literature on sensitivity: All studies comparing simple models with recent climate change (from Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001, onwards) find high sensitivities (more than 8K, say) are consistent (at the few - percent level) with the observed record unless they are ruled out a priori.

Personally I think simple (climate without weather) models are important and ultimately the way forward, but they must meet the all harsh criteria of the observed climate simultaneously or they are simply to simple for purpose.

Or it may be caused by any other mechanism (like the influence of solar changes on the jet stream position) which enhance the simple direct insolation change which is incorporated in several current climate models...

We employed two different climate model simulations: (1) the simulation of the NCAR CSM 1.4 coupled atmosphere - ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (model simulations: (1) the simulation of the NCAR CSM 1.4 coupled atmosphere - ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (Model (EBM).

I also wonder how you morons in the denialist camp got the idea that climate sensitivity is some sort of simple parameter one dials into the models.

Not only is the climate of the Lorenz model easy to understand, it is also simple to predict how it will respond to a variety of «external forcings», in the form of either a parameter perturbation or direct forcing term in the dynamical equations.

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content

If so, the actual models are in serious trouble because none of them is able to reproduce this temperature patter, and they might need a much stronger climate sensitivity to solar cycle that might include a lot of things in addition to the simple TSI forcing.

During the next decade a few scientists worked up simple mathematical models of the planet's climate system and turned up feedbacks that could make the system surprisingly sensitive.

MAGICC is itself a collection of simple gas - cycle, climate, and ice - melt models to efficiently emulate the output of complex climate models.

This simpler test for consistency is of particular interest for quantities where the magnitudes for the base climate vary across models.

We have used the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse - gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC)-- a simple climate model emulator that was, in part, developed through support of the EPA — to examine the climate impact of proposed regulatModel for the Assessment of Greenhouse - gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC)-- a simple climate model emulator that was, in part, developed through support of the EPA — to examine the climate impact of proposed regulClimate Change (MAGICC)-- a simple climate model emulator that was, in part, developed through support of the EPA — to examine the climate impact of proposed regulclimate model emulator that was, in part, developed through support of the EPA — to examine the climate impact of proposed regulatmodel emulator that was, in part, developed through support of the EPA — to examine the climate impact of proposed regulclimate impact of proposed regulations.

The current press campaign against Dr Soon began after he had co-authored a paper titled Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model, published in January 2015 in China's leading learned journal of scientific research, the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, co-sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Each of the four authors of the Science Bulletin paper has a lively and expert academic interest in our subject, and we wrote our paper because we considered — rightly, as events have turned out (for there have already been more than 22,500 downloads either of the abstract or of the full paper)-- that other researchers would find our simple model of the climate interesting and helpful.

The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer.

(This essay is supplementary to the core essay on The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect For the most important greenhouse gas, water vapor, see the essay on Simple Models of Climate.)

To start in, for the scientific story, a good starting - point is the keystone essay on the basic discoveries about The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect, followed perhaps by attempts to explain changes with Simple Models of Climate.

Using a simple, publically - available, climate model emulator called MAGICC that was in part developed through support of the EPA, we ran the numbers as to how much future temperature rise would be averted by a complete adoption and adherence to the EPA's new carbon dioxide restrictions *.

My point was that, if we accept this basic story (it's too simple, even as an account of how cultural cognition works; but that's in the nature of «models» & should give us pause only when the simplification detracts from rather than enhances our ability to predict and manage the dynamics of the phenomenon in question), then there's no reason to view the valences of the cultural meanings attached to crediting climate change risk as fixed or immutable.

«Seasonal Cycle Experiments on Climate Sensitivity Due to a Doubling of CO2 with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Coupled to a Simple Mixed Layer Ocean Model.»

In fact, simple models go a very long way in explaining a lot of features in both weather and climate, and people who claim otherwise simply haven't studied the subject.

Nothing is as simple in the real world as it is in the digital world of the climate models that the Left uses to blame humanity and modernity for heating up the globe (the AGW hypothesis).

Experiments with coupled ocean - atmosphere general circulation models (which represent the complexity of the climate system much more realistically than this simple model) give similar results.