Possible explanations advanced for the slowdown include the effect
of small volcanic eruptions, the absorption of extra heat by the oceanic depths and the juxtaposition of two natural ocean cycles.
For example, a recent slowing in the rate of surface air temperature rise appears to be related to cyclic changes in the oceans and in the sun's energy output, as well as a series
of small volcanic eruptions and other factors.
2) There are errors in the assumed forcings, such as: a) AR5 let stratospheric aerosol concentration go to zero after 2000 (a sure way to prod the models into higher predictions), but it actually increased for the next 10 years «probably due to a large number
of small volcanic eruptions».
Some research has tied it to a series
of small volcanic eruptions around the globe while other findings have linked it to the changes in winds and ocean circulation.
The contribution, about 15 percent of aerosols in total, was similar to the «sum
of small volcanic eruptions between 2000 and 2015.»
There have been plenty
of smaller volcanic eruptions in recent years, such as the continuously erupting Soufriere Hills on Montserrat and Tavurvur on Papua New Guinea, which may have exploded enough SO2 into the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
They can be as
small as a grain
of salt, but tiny crystals that form deep in volcanoes may be the key for advance warnings before
volcanic eruptions.
In a new study, an international team
of scientists claim that the most powerful
volcanic eruptions, dubbed «super-
eruptions», are triggered by a slow and steady drip feed
of magma from large reservoirs deep within Earth's crust into
smaller reservoirs closer to the surface.
I won't argue that our added gases may contribute to the warming to some very, very
small degree, but keep in mind, the ash plume from a good
volcanic eruption such as the last big Pinatubo
eruption eclipses into insignificants the amount
of pollutants added to the atmosphere by human activity.
Last summer, we found
small pieces
of volcanic glass in a cave that might be from an
eruption that occurred in Indonesia nearly 70,000 years ago.
The cause
of this relatively short lived cooling (it was not a true «ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been cooler, there may have been more
volcanic eruptions, there is a
small but persistent cooling trend due to orbital cycles (as explained above).
The contributions
of stratospheric water vapour and ozone,
volcanic eruptions, and organic and black carbon are
small.»
If you live in the Pacific Northwest you know in the back
of your mind that
volcanic eruption is a
small possibility.
Hundreds
of small tremors have rattled the mountain this week, causing almost 10,000 people to leave their homes as
of Friday over fears
of a
volcanic eruption.
It has long been suspected that the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum was one
of the causes
of the Little Ice Age, although other factors like a
small drop in greenhouse gas concentrations around 1600 and strong
volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role as well.
I won't argue that our added gases may contribute to the warming to some very, very
small degree, but keep in mind, the ash plume from a good
volcanic eruption such as the last big Pinatubo
eruption eclipses into insignificants the amount
of pollutants added to the atmosphere by human activity.
The cause
of this relatively short lived cooling (it was not a true «ice age») is not fully known, but the sun could have been cooler, there may have been more
volcanic eruptions, there is a
small but persistent cooling trend due to orbital cycles (as explained above).
A submarine landslide might release a Gigaton
of carbon as methane (Archer, 2007), but the radiative effect
of that would be
small, about equal in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to the radiative forcing from a
volcanic eruption.
In Carter's words, the chances
of an earthquake there «are
small and
of a
volcanic eruption almost zero.»
This reminds me
of the time I mixed uncorrected radiocarbon dates with corrected ones, and got a bit skewed distribution
of volcanic events, though I tried to correct for observational bias on earlier and
smaller eruptions.
And a conclusion; «There is very high confidence that industrial era natural forcing is a
small fraction
of the anthropogenic forcing except for brief periods following large
volcanic eruptions.»
Scientists have considered a number
of theories:
small differences in solar radiation;
volcanic eruptions that spewed sun - blocking ash and gases into the atmosphere; or pollution from factories, power plants, and tailpipes, particularly in Asia.
Volcanic eruptions, even
small and moderate ones, might counter some
of the effects
of global warming, new research suggests.
Small volcanic eruptions account for part
of the global warming slowdown since 2000, a new study suggests.
The answer is that CO2 is only one
of several factors that influence temperature, such as
volcanic eruptions, solar variability, sulfur dioxide emissions (see Figure 1), and
small changes in the earth's orbit.
Although only a
small fraction
of this vast
volcanic terrain has been visually surveyed or sampled, the available evidence suggests that explosive
eruptions are rare on mid-ocean ridges, particularly at depths below the critical point for seawater (3,000 m) 1.
While the biggest
volcanic eruptions — including large igneous provinces like the Siberian Traps — are known to be linked to climate upheaval and even mass extinctions, emerging work shows that under the right conditions,
smaller eruptions or series
of eruptions can also affect climate.
«Because the effects
of volcanic eruptions and
of ENSO are very short - term and that
of solar variability very
small, none
of these factors can be expected to exert a significant influence on the continuation
of global warming over the coming decades.
While a
smaller volcanic eruption was factored in in 1995, it was nothing near the size
of the impact
of Pinatubo, either in magnitude
of negative forcing or duration.
Large
volcanic eruptions increase the number
of small particles in the stratosphere that reflect sunlight, leading to short - term surface cooling lasting typically two to three years, followed by a slow recovery.
While
volcanic eruptions surely warmed the ocean in the immediate vicinity
of the
eruptions, the amount
of heat they produced compared to the large volume
of the Arctic Ocean is
small.
Assuming 1 % hydrate by pore water volume were released on average from the slide volume, you get a methane release
of about 0.8 Gton
of C. Even if all
of the hydrate made it to the atmosphere, it would have had a
smaller climate impact than a
volcanic eruption (I calculated the methane impact on the radiative budget here).