During the regular season we'll typically see the majority
of square bettors hammering the favorite, but sportsbooks take enough action from sharp bettors to mitigate their risk.
Interestingly, this actually mirrors the NFL playoffs, where the influx
of square bettors causes a seismic shift in the sports betting marketplace.
Because you were always laying a minus number, betting on favorites burned a huge hole in the pockets
of square bettors.
Not exact matches
They understand the factors driving public betting and shade their lines accordingly to force
square bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side
of a game.
A majority
of bettors are considered to be
squares — casual weekend warriors who place their wagers mainly based on instinct.
In the sports betting marketplace, we often reference two types
of bettors: «sharps» and «
squares.»
The NFL attracts a large number
of «
square» or «public»
bettors, and these largely uninformed individuals can help create artificial line value for sharp
bettors.
This is the time
of year when
square bettors flock to sports betting marketplace, making it an ideal time for sharp
bettors to find value.
Square bettors are prone to betting these games for one simple reason — they plan on watching the game and they want some sort
of vested interest.
One
of the biggest differences between sharp sports
bettors and
squares is that sharps understand the importance
of getting the best
of the number.
This looks like the quintessential example
of «Sharps vs.
Squares» with casual
bettors taking Arkansas and sharp
bettors taking Auburn.
Finally, here is a list
of prop bets available at Bovada, a
squarer book with lower limits that attracts public
bettors.
By capitalizing on overreactions and the predictable actions
of casual
bettors (sometimes known as
squares), a contrarian can exploit mispriced or artificially inflated lines.
Square bettors come out
of the woodwork and get down hard on these games, causing the ticket counts to skyrocket (on average, these games are getting 20 - 40K bets, similar to an NFL game).
Parlay percentage is another excellent indicator
of square money since you won't find many sharp
bettors taking parlays.
Bovada, which is considered to be one
of the most
square sportsbooks, posted a prop bet in which
bettors could simply say «Yes» or «No» to the question
of whether each NHL team will make the playoffs.
Although it does not track reverse line movement like our earlier spread system, it shows how WNBA
bettors can take advantage
of lines that are artificially inflated by
square bettors.
Without any action to get down on (besides the Home Run Derby and Midsummer Classic itself), sharp and
square bettors alike are forced to take a step back, reflect on their first - half performance, re-examine winning and losing strategies and prepare for the second - half
of the season.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate the behavior
of these
bettors and shade their opening lines to force
square bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side
of a game.
For example, an uninformed (or
square)
bettor is more prone to bet on the favorite regardless
of the point spread.
Most
of these silly props come with inflated juice and fall in direct contrast with our contrarian betting strategy, but the Super Bowl is the one day
of the year where many sharp
bettors let themselves go and fall into the
square category.
-- Prior to Friday's games we highlighted the importance
of betting against the public in the tournament due to so many casual and
square bettors:
This looks like the quintessential example
of «Sharps vs.
Squares» with casual
bettors taking Arkansas and sharp
bettors taking LSU.
Unfortunately, there aren't enough «
square» CFL
bettors to move markets which we assumed would negatively impact the value
of betting against the public.
This game provides the perfect example
of why
bettors should ideally have access to at least three sportsbooks: one sharp, one
square and one reduced juice.
The whole concept
of betting against the public is based on the idea that «
square» or uninformed public
bettors create artificial line value by pounding one side — typically the favorite or the over.
This is one
of the major reasons that we suggest
bettors have accounts at multiple sportsbooks: one sharp (like CRIS or The Greek), one
square (like Bovada or Sports Interaction) and one reduced juice (like Pinnacle or 5Dimes).
Bovada, which is well known to
bettors as a very public /
square sportsbook, posted prop bets for six
of the major awards including outstanding series, actor and actress.
It's also important to realize most
bettors can be categorized into one
of two categories: «sharps» and «
squares.»
With
square bettors eager to bet on any football game that they can (we tracked ~ 47k bets on the 5 NBA games last night, ~ 40k on the 3 MACtion games), there are more than 60 %
of bets on the over for each
of the three games.
During the playoffs, the number
of bets placed on every game nearly doubles, with much
of the action from
square bettors.
This looks like the quintessential example
of «Sharps vs.
Squares» with casual
bettors taking Texas Tech and sharp
bettors taking TCU.
In the sports betting marketplace, there are two types
of bettors: «sharps» and «
squares.»
The public tends to be very reactionary and, with the ever - growing popularity
of football, sharp
bettors can take advantage
of these
squares.
In a heavily bet game, uninformed «
square»
bettors can actually move the line which allows sharp
bettors to pounce on «Team B» at +11 instead
of +10.
This level
of public support is typical after an impressive win on national television; however, it would appear that
square bettors may be overvaluing the Broncos.
Admittedly, Bovada is a
square sportsbook and likely shaded their lines to account for the influx
of over
bettors, but even so it's interesting to see Manning with such lofty expectations.
The number
of public «
square»
bettors should drastically increase as it gets closer to game time, meaning the line may move back into the contrarian
bettor's favor as the line hovers around that key number
of 14.
March Madness brings an influx
of casual
bettors into the market place, and these
squares are prone to pounding favorites and overs.
South Carolina is available as high as +16 at some
of the
square sportsbooks, so we would strongly suggest that
bettors shop for the best line before taking South Carolina as a home «dog.
Over the past few years, we have constantly explained that
bettors can take advantage
of public perception by betting against ranked teams — but what happens when two ranked teams
square off?
With two potent offenses
squaring off, the total opened at 88.5 yet 76 %
of bettors have taken the over.
This indicates that most sportsbooks have likely been taking big money from sharp
bettors on Pittsburgh to counter the influx
of public /
square money on Indianapolis.
This game currently ranks fifth in terms
of number
of bets placed, but
square bettors often like to bet games that are on television, so that number could increase significantly (tonight's game is nationally televised).
It also gives
square bettors more time to place their bets, which typically leads to an influx
of public money and additional value betting against the public.
Part
of this is due to the popularity
of North Carolina among
square bettors.
These trends offer an excellent overview
of which teams are being hammered by «
square»
bettors.
Since
square bettors typically overreact to recent events, one
of the easiest ways to take advantage
of public perception is by taking teams following a loss or fading teams following a win.
This would indicate that both
square and sharp
bettors loved the over in this matchup, however, most
of that value has now been sucked out.
With
square bettors having early season success, now may be the perfect time to buy low on some
of the nation's least popular teams.