... there is little quantification
of the stratospheric water vapour change attributable to different causes.
The contributions
of stratospheric water vapour and ozone, volcanic eruptions, and organic and black carbon are small.»
Recent studies have shown a doubling
of stratospheric water vapour, likely from increasing atmospheric heights due to global warming, overshooting thunderstorm tops from stronger tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective systems etc...
Not exact matches
Those data, to be collected this year and next, could improve climate models, which account poorly for these atmospheric interactions and contain «horrific» uncertainties about the levels and behaviour
of water vapour at
stratospheric altitudes, Austin says.
I would assume that the increase in
stratospheric water vapour would make for a thicker vail
of sulfuric acid given a large volcanic eruption.
Forster, P.M. de F., and K.P. Shine, 2002: Assessing the climate impact
of trends in
stratospheric water vapour.
The difference is in the residence time, mainly due to the lack
of water vapour: the
stratospheric injection
of SO2 by the Pinatubo did last 2 - 3 years before the reflecting drops were large enough to fall out
of the atmosphere.
There is a potential issue with aerosols and
stratospheric water vapour over the short term period
of the «plateau».
[The paper was] the first proper computation
of global warming and
stratospheric cooling from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, including atmospheric emission and
water -
vapour feedback.
«The observed temporal trends in
stratospheric water vapour are poorly understood and this demonstrates our lack
of understanding
of how
water vapour enters the stratosphere.
I think forcing from
stratospheric water vapour, including that from oxidation
of methane, is normally accounted for separately from methane forcing.
No matter what the origin is, however, Karen Rosenlof, a member
of Solomon's team, says it is now clear that
stratospheric water vapour has a significant effect on global warming and that models» inability to take this effect into account is a significant failing.
The Met Office held a briefing for the press to explain that the reduction in warming might be natural variation, or could be accounted for by a mixture
of a decrease in
stratospheric water vapour and the cooling bias introduced by new methodology.
As obvious on figures 6 - A and 6 - B, Ttop and Ptop are determined by the
water vapour that radiates over some 1900 cm - 1 much more than the 40 cm - 1
of the tropospheric CO2 near 614 cm - 1 and 718 cm - 1.;
stratospheric radiation to the cosmos is not very important because the cooling
of each layer is exactly equal to its heating mostly by UV absorbed by Ozone.
Methane is an important part
of the anthropogenic radiative forcing Methane emissions have a direct GHG effect, and they effect atmospheric chemistry and
stratospheric water vapour which have additional impacts natural feedbacks involving methane likely to be important in future — via wetland response to temperature / rain change, atmospheric chemistry and, yes, arctic sources There are large stores
of carbon in the Arctic, some stored as hydrates, some potentially convertible to CH4 by anaerobic resporation [from wikianswers: Without oxygen.
Based on chemical transport model studies, the RF from the increase in
stratospheric water vapour due to oxidation
of CH4 is estimated to be +0.07 [± 0.05] W m — 2, with a low level
of scientific understanding.
Three analyses
of the NASA NVAP satellite data show little or no empirical correlation between either surface temperature or atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Solomon et al in fact shows a 10 % decrease in
stratospheric water vapour in the decade pre-2000.
We calculate an escape time
of the order
of 108 — 109 years even with the increased
stratospheric water vapour and temperature at 16 × CO2.
6.6.1 Effects
of Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Radiatively Active Species 6.6.2 Indirect Forcings
of Methane, Carbon Monoxide and Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 6.6.3 Indirect Forcing by NOx Emissions 6.6.4
Stratospheric Water Vapour
* The GWP for methane includes indirect effects
of tropospheric ozone production and
stratospheric water vapour production.
Stratospheric water vapour forcing is not imposed or calculated separately in GISS - E2 - R, but arises from the oxidation
of methane.
Future climate change may cause either an increase or a decrease in background tropospheric ozone, due to the competing effects
of higher
water vapour and higher
stratospheric input; increases in regional ozone pollution are expected due to higher temperatures and weaker circulation.
I have considered the possibility that
stratospheric water vapour forcing might account for the excess
of Historical forcing values over the sum
of all the individual forcing values.
On the other hand, as well as being a powerful GHG it is a source
of tropospheric ozone and
stratospheric water vapour, both
of which add to the basic forcing from methane.
A change in
stratospheric water vapour because
of the increase in methane over the industrial period would be a forcing
of the climate (and is one
of the indirect effects
of methane we discussed last year), but a change in the tropopause flux is a response to other factors in the climate system.
Stratospheric water vapour comes from two sources — the uplift
of tropospheric
water through the very cold tropical tropopause (both as
vapour and as condensate), and the oxidation
of methane in the upper stratosphere (CH4 +2 O2 — > CO2 + 2H2O NB: this is just a schematic, the actual chemical pathways are more complicated).