Sentences with phrase «of swing constituencies»

Results, they say, increasingly hinge on the preferences of a small number of voters in a handful of swing constituencies which is undemocratic.

The Blairist targeting of Middle England saw a healthy number of swing constituencies fall into Labour's hands.

Not exact matches

This same swing constituency would probably be afraid of conservative reformist policies like Health Savings Accounts / Catastrophic Coverage plans and premium support Medicare.

In constituencies where over 60 % of the population had voted Leave, the swing, of 0.8 %, was in the Tories» direction.

Not only does the electoral system work against us, making the whole election contingent on a handful of swing voters in marginal constituencies, but the rightwing media get to call all the shots.

According to our analysis, the Crosscheck list disproportionately threatens solid Democratic constituencies: young, black, Hispanic and Asian - American voters — with some of the biggest possible purges underway in Ohio and North Carolina, two crucial swing states with tight Senate races.

In the unique constituency of Brighton Pavilion, I found the Green Party ten points ahead, with a four - point swing from Labour.

http://jess-the-dog.blogspot.com/2009/12/prediction-for-2010-tory-landslide.html Now, a 300 majority in the Balls Normanton constituency may seem like a Tory wipeout given the swing of 20 - odd % from 2005, but the boundary changes will change the demographic somewhat, and not in Balls's favour.

What is even signaling a possible defeat of NDC candidates in these constituencies is that, except Madina Constituency, Ledzokuku and Krowor are swing seats, and any party with a united front is likely to carry the day.

The focus on Israel is interesting, as the district is more heavily Asian - American than anything else, but foreign policy - minded Jewish voters are considered an electorally significant swing constituency and the race is likely to see more plenty more events held in front of Jewish congregations like today.

The nationalists received a swing of 4.96 per cent, but it was not enough to challenge Labour's grip on the constituency.

* Catholic voters: Veteran New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf noted that western New York is one of the most heavily Catholic parts of the country, and that Catholics are a key swing constituency.

With FPTP, in a General Election a good local MP may lose their constituency because of the national swing against that MP's party, regardless of the personal merit and exemplary track record of the MP, because people decide to vote on a «party» basis.

jsfl, In order to calculate the swing from 2005 in these marginal seats, we need to have the party shares that occurred in these constituencies — not the national shares.Given that Anthony is quoting a 29 % Con lead over Labour and a swing of approximately 11 % from Lab to Con since 2005, the implication is that in 2005 the Tories enjoyed a 7 % lead over Labour in these paricular seats!

Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every constituency) Conservatives: 239 seats Labour: 265 seats Liberal Democrat: 115 seats Other: 31 seats Labour short of an overall majority by 61.

Despite this, further small swings to the party in a number of Dail constituencies could see further seat gains being made by Labour, as the map above suggests.

While a resurgent Sinn Fein is viewed as posing a significant threat to Labour on the left of the political spectum, the previous post relating to Sinn Fein target constituencies did not identify any constituency as being one where a Labour seat would be lost on the basis of a 2 %, or less, swing to Sinn Fein, whereas three Sinn Fein seats would be lost to Labour if there was a 2 %, or less, swing from Sinn Fein to Labour in the Cork East, Dublin Central and Sligo - North Leitrim constituencies.

The Conservatives are in third place with 9.4 per cent of the vote and Nick would require a swing of over 30 per cent to win the constituency.

Constituencies that would especially fall into this category include Cork South West, Dublin North East, Dublin South East and Galway East, as a swing of 2 %, or less, away from Labour to opposing parties could see these seats fall out of the party's hands.

The East End of Long Island constituency is a swing district that has flipped back and forth between Republicans and Democrats since the 1950s.

In all, a small swing to Labour (of 2 %, or less) from other parties could see further seat gains fall into the party's hands in a number constituencies (highlighted by the yellow shaded constituencies on the map), with a particular cluster of these target constituencies being located in the Munster region.

17:22 - The latest constituency results from London don't look good for Labour The swing to Labour in Bexley and Bromley is just 0.2 % while there was a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 3.7 %.

In particular, it acquired the support of swing voters in the marginal constituencies that, thanks to our electoral system, decide elections in the UK.

With 194 marginal constituencies (those with majorities of 10 % or less) that can be won by an opposing party with just a 5 % swing, the youth vote could be the deciding factor in which party makes it into power on May 7th 2015.

He was the victim of a massive 26.9 % swing from Labour to the SNP in the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency.

These seats - Labour - held constituencies the Tories need to take if they want a workable majority - need a swing of at least three to seven per cent for them to go blue.

He needs a 6.25 % swing to take the seat from Labour, making Barrow - in - Furness exactly the kind of constituency David Cameron needs to win in order to form a government.

However, as we've seen in previous Lord Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem marginals there is an awful lot of variation between individual constituencies — some seats (Carshalton & Wallington and Thornbury & Yate) are actually showing swings from Con to LD.

The Labour Party polled below expectations and won 30.4 % of the vote and 232 seats, 24 fewer than their previous result in 2010, even though in 222 constituencies there was a Conservative to Labour swing, as against 151 constituencies where there was a Labour to Conservative swing.

We don't yet know for sure the impact of the reduction in the number of constituencies — the Conservatives should be the net beneficiaries, but the parties will fight over every boundary line; until the new map is drawn we won't know how many seats will change hands for a given swing.

In three of the four constituencies the swing to Labour was at least as big as was the case in the spring, with leads of between 13 points and 19 points.

John Bell the local candidate was selected for Clwyd South, John stood for the Constituency in the Welsh Assembly Elections achieving a 6.6 % swing from Labour to Conservatives and increased our share of the vote by 10.2 % whilst increasing the Conservative vote by some 60 %.

Significantly, at the 2007 Scottish Parliament election, it was John who won the Roxburgh and Berwickshire seat (which makes up more than 60 % of this Westminster constituency) on a swing of no less than 9.4 % from the Lib Dems.

Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every constituency) Conservatives: 283 seats Labour: 283 seats Liberal Democrat: 53 seats Other: 31 seats Conservatives and Labour short of an overall majority by 43.

«Whilst Joan Ryan was setting up Labour No to AV and building the national campaign as the deputy campaign director — particularly working out the core vote / swing vote strategy — Jane Kennedy spoke at about two hundred meetings of constituency Labour parties.

Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every constituency) Conservatives: 319 seats Labour: 247 seats Liberal Democrat: 54 seats Other: 30 seats Conservatives short of an overall majority by seven

However, it will be won or lost in the 117 marginal seats we need to win in order to gain an overall majority; and it will be won or lost on the decisions of swing voters in those constituencies.

The Lib Dems need a swing of around 6.5 % to take the seat from Labour, and are hopeful given that 68 % of the constituency (probably) voted Remain in the referendum.

He is also chairman of the Longendale ward Conservatives in the constituency, where he would need a swing of 12 % to overturn Purnell's notional majority of 8,455.

Now take a look at Lord Ashcroft's polling of Darling's constituency, which forecasts a 28 - point swing for the SNP from fourth to first.

A former Welsh Woman of the Year (in recognition of her work on disability rights), Karen fought the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency at the 2007 Welsh Assembly election, achieving a swing of over 5 % from Labour to the Conservatives.

Common sense alone tells us that marginality should have some effect upon the size of the swing — if there was a 10 % swing at the election, it is unlikely that the Conservatives would actually pick up an extra 10 % of the vote in places like inner - city Glasgow and the Welsh valleys, while there are some home counties constituencies where Labour barely has 10 % to lose.

A huge number of votes for the Scottish Nationalists over Labour has led to some historic voting swings in formerly solid Labour constituencies.

The Blairite strategy for resolving this problem was both a cynical triangulation towards the priorities of swing voters in marginal constituencies; and a consequent abandonment of any transformative political objectives that potentially challenged the prejudices of that constituency.

But reacting to the findings of the three - month research which focused on twenty - four swing constituencies in seven out of the ten regions, Mr Adams rejected the findings of the two polls as well as that of the Economist Intelligence Unit all of which projected a win for the NPP.

That then feeds into a computer model that effectively has a number of toggles for each constituency, such as whether it is rural or urban, and attempts to identify types of seats that will experience the same electoral swing.