But the extraordinary
number of swing voters suggests the parties have everything to fight for over the next seven days.
They appreciated that the battle of political ideas at election time was focused exclusively on a
minority of swing voters in marginal seats.
In these cases, the Democratic base, the Republican base and the
number of swing voters are all close to the national average.
While three quarters
of swing voters thought Labour must accept a large part of the blame for the economic situation, most in the Labour movement disagreed.
That is, Rhode Island has a
lot of swing voters and a lot of Democratic base voters, but very few Republican base voters.
More than two
thirds of swing voters think the coalition's proposed cuts are «unavoidable», compared to less than half in the Labour movement.
Not only does the electoral system work against us, making the whole election contingent on a
handful of swing voters in marginal constituencies, but the rightwing media get to call all the shots.
Two thirds
of swing voters say Labour will have to change quite fundamentally before they will consider voting for it again, even if they do not like what the coalition is doing.
With a polarized electorate, both parties believe they benefit more by turning out core supporters than from courting a shrinking
group of swing voters.
My own impressionistic conclusion is that one
kind of swing voter — the pseudo-sophisticated, fairly prosperous soft libertarian — is especially repulsed (in a sort of Palinesque way) by Perry's distinctive Texas baggage.
In these cases, where many or
most of the swing voters side with Democratic base voters, the Democrat will win by a wide margin.
A
majority of swing voters think the Conservative - Liberal Democrat coalition is the right outcome given the number of seats each party won.
RoadTrip2015's work began with a March 2014 trip to Cannock Chase, a West Midlands Labour marginal where 50 volunteers battled through a hailstorm to the
doorsteps of swing voters.
In particular, it acquired the
support of swing voters in the marginal constituencies that, thanks to our electoral system, decide elections in the UK.
The reform was, as Clegg is suddenly keen to point out, never the most pressing thing on the
mind of the swing voter in Wolverhampton.
It is admittedly unlikely that
many of the swing voters of Hendon or Harlow have read Capital (it is a little dry in places).
However, it will be won or lost in the 117 marginal seats we need to win in order to gain an overall majority; and it will be won or lost on the
decisions of swing voters in those constituencies.
The Blairite strategy for resolving this problem was both a cynical triangulation towards the
priorities of swing voters in marginal constituencies; and a consequent abandonment of any transformative political objectives that potentially challenged the prejudices of that constituency.
If political leaders pay particular attention to the
opinions of swing voters, the teachers union may experience some tough sledding in the political arena in the years ahead.
One of Cameron's main pledges in this election will be to retain an electoral system which forces parties to focus on a
handful of swing voters in marginal seats.
Three
quarters of swing voters think the Labour government must accept a large part of the blame for the economic problems it left.
More than half (59 %) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88 %), a majority of UKIP voters (55 %) and two
thirds of swing voters (68 %) expect Cameron to remain in charge.
And how does its view compare with
that of swing voters, who supported Labour in previous elections but did not vote for Gordon Brown?
Labour needs to compete and win in the marginals, but can not simply target the 4 %
of swing voters.
One is that there are a lot
of swing voters, as well as a lot of Reagan Democrat voters, in the Midwest, and therefore I think the national mood hits harder,» said Saul Anuzis, the former Michigan Republican Party chairman.
It means that hundreds of constituencies are effectively pocket boroughs where individual voters count for nothing - the fate of Tories across Scotland and many Labour supporters in south - east England - meaning party machines have adopted the malign practice of devoting their attention to a handful
of swing voters, thus effectively disenfranchising tens of millions of people.
«The question is, how useful is highlighting the [climate] issue to pull
some of these swing voters over with him?»