Now I wonder whether Lightsum and the rest are any sort
of temperature proxy at all, because maybe Tiljander et al were scraping the bottom of the interpretation barrel.
The types
of temperature proxy data used from each continental - scale region are illustrated in Figure 2.
Mann includes at this site a large number
of temperature proxy data series.
Table 1 gives a summary
of the temperature proxy reconstructions used for analysis.»
Manley's Central England record coincides well with the year - to - year rises and falls
of temperature proxies: tree rings and written records of when winter ice spread over rivers or harbors and trees sprouted leaves.
Shakun and his colleagues started by creating the first global set
of temperature proxies — a set of 80 different records from around the world that recorded temperatures from roughly 20,000 years ago to 10,000 years ago.
I wrote to you, Tom: «And i hope you understand, that the MWP is concluded on the basis
of temperature proxies only.»
There is general agreement that lots
of temperature proxies from different locations show a warm period sometime during the period from 900 AD to 1400 AD and even that this warmth is, in some places, as pronounced as the modern warmth.
Studies involving 28 million weather balloons, thousands of satellite recordings, 3,000 ocean buoys, temperature recordings from 50 sites in the US and a 1,000 years
of temperature proxies suggest that the Global Climate Models overestimate positive feedback and are based on poor assumptions.
The «sceptical» blogosphere had in fact been excercised for much longer by temperature records - the much - discussed hockey stick controversy, allegations that data and methods were being kept secret, the use
of temperature proxies such as tree - rings, and so on.
Watts is observing the current state
of temperature proxies (LIG thermometers, Pt resistance thermometers, Thermistors etc in various enclosures.
The point, that there is no cause - effect relationship visible does not mean that movements in the solar system, which cycles can be found in the global frequency spectra
of temperature proxies are not relevant to science.
In this situation I think is a humble search for a mechanism helpful, looking for what is, inclusive the imperfections
of the temperature proxies.
Both charts are correct as general modeled representations
of temperature proxies based on context and quality of modeling; at the time they were done; and the scope of the measurements pertaining to the particular chart.
Far and away the most lively and interesting discussion I have yet seen on Climate Audit The whole subject
of temperature proxies is clearly fraught with numerous hazards and very far from being a settled branch of science.
It was probably the best that could be done at the time, but science marches on and there are all sorts
of temperature proxies now.
I'm still confused about the merits
of temperature proxies taken from predominantly coastal locations.
SteveM's criteria method before - the - fact selection of proxies applies to all types
of temperature proxies not just tree rings
Not exact matches
Ranging from the magnesium levels in microscopic seashells pulled from ocean sediment cores to pollen counts in layers
of muck from lakebeds, the
proxies delivered thousands
of temperature readings over the period.
«We find many examples
of these variations in pre-industrial
temperature reconstructions» based on
proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and lake sediment, Lovejoy says.
Once it falls on inland Antarctica and packs into ice, it gives climate researchers a
proxy of local
temperatures at that time.
We present a synthesis
of decadally resolved
proxy temperature records from poleward
of 60 ° N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
Update: as suggested by the academy in its 2006 report, Michael Mann and his colleagues have reconstructed northern hemisphere
temperatures for the past 2000 years using a broader set
of proxies than was available for the original study and updated measurements from the recent past.
Their solar estimates were based on a number
of different
proxies and the
temperature was taken from the Bradley and Jones Northern Hemisphere record.
The NRC noted that «presently available
proxy evidence indicates that
temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period
of comparable length since A.D. 900.»
«We can't just stick a thermometer in there,» says physicist Barbara Jacak, spokesperson for an instrument at RHIC that measured the energy
of emitted gamma rays as a
proxy for the incredible peak
temperatures.
For example, much
of our understanding
of the large - and small - scale convection patterns driving plate tectonics has come about by using Birch - type
proxies for
temperature and composition.
Some
of the most useful
temperature proxies are insensitive to
temperature change in the heart
of the WPWP, which is already at the maximum
temperature they can record.
His seminal paper, published in the Journal
of Geophysical Research in 1952, is also famous for its tongue - in - cheek lecture on the uncertainties inherent in extrapolating laboratory and
proxy observations to the high pressure and high
temperature interiors
of planets.
This study integrates the complementary information preserved in the global database
of borehole
temperatures [Huang et al., 2000], the 20th century meteorological record [Jones et al., 1999], and an annually resolved multi
proxy model [Mann et al., 1999] for a more complete picture
of the Northern Hemisphere
temperature change over the past five centuries.
That article discussed Eddy's use
of the tree - ring 14C record as an inversely correlated
proxy indicator for sunspot activity, but does not appear to be relevant to a discussion
of tree - rings as a
temperature proxy.
The most charitable explanation is that it is the trivial observation that a tree ring
proxy must be calibrated to the
temperature record over some portion
of the chronology to provide a useful reconstruction.
In yet others, there are more
proxies in the extratropics, but an attempt is made to appropriately weight patterns
of surface
temperature that emphasize both regions, based on the relationships
of those patterns with the available extratropical and tropical
proxies (e.g. Mann et al, 1999).
As there is no explanation as to how climate changes could possibly affect the intensity
of the earth's magnetic field, it was decided that it would be easier to believe that
proxy sea floor sediment data should be adjusted («corrected») for sea water
temperature.
Further information comes from
proxies (ice cores, tree rings,...), which give (less exact) information about
temperature and some
of the primary actors
of the past.
Have you found that this is also likely to be true
of any attempt at extracting
temperature signals from tree ring
proxies?
Despite reams
of proxy data and historical records showing that the Earth's
temperature behaved sinusoidally over the last 1000 years, Mann only sees a hockey stick behavior.
After participation in a ship expedition with RV SONNE to the North Pacific in summer 2018, the tasks include to reconstruct the spatial and temporal changes in near - surface and subsurface water
temperatures in the North Pacific, salinity, thermocline depth, and water mass stratification
of the upper oceanic surface using geochemical
proxy parameters, e.g. in planktic microfossils.
For example, in the maps below from the paper, you can see the sparseness
of the
proxy records that the researchers had available to create their rainfall (left map) and
temperature (right map) records.
Variations
of deuterium (δD; black), a
proxy for local
temperature, and the atmospheric concentrations
of the greenhouse gases CO2 (red), CH4 (blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O; green) derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric measurements (Petit et al., 1999; Indermühle et al., 2000; EPICA community members, 2004; Spahni et al., 2005; Siegenthaler et al., 2005a, b).
Apart from extensive, unattributed passages from the Wegman report previously discussed, Rapp's other main source for section 1.1.1 on
temperature proxies is a 2003 George Marshall Institute report by noted contrarians Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, entitled Lessons and Limits
of Climate History: Was the 20th Century Climate Unusual?
To estimate the amount
of precipitation, Ghosh's team measured a common paleoclimate
proxy for
temperature, humidity, and atmospheric circulation.
A well - known issue with LGM
proxies is that the most abundant type
of proxy data, using the species composition
of tiny marine organisms called foraminifera, probably underestimates sea surface cooling over vast stretches
of the tropical oceans; other methods like alkenone and Mg / Ca ratios give colder
temperatures (but aren't all coherent either).
The important point the study makes is that the onset
of warming in the tropical ocean in the 1830s is earlier than is typically assumed from the instrumental record and from other
proxy reconstructions that have focused mainly on Northern Hemisphere land
temperatures.
Tree cores are though to be good measures
of past
temperature (or, are a «
proxy» for
temperature) through the widths
of tree rings contained in the core; tree rings generally occur once a year and have a width that is correlated to
temperature.
Species with larvae that are likely to be particularly exposed to sea surface warming (i.e., obligatory broadcast spawners and / or brooders) were regarded as having lower tolerance to warming, and we used evidence
of past mass high
temperature mortality as a
proxy for measuring adult colonies» tolerances.
This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array
of evidence that includes the additional large - scale surface
temperature reconstructions and documentation
of the spatial coherence
of recent warming described above (Cook et al. 2004, Moberg et al. 2005b, Rutherford et al. 2005, D'Arrigo et al. 2006, Osborn and Briffa 2006, Wahl and Ammann in press) and also the pronounced changes in a variety
of local
proxy indicators described in previous chapters (e.g., Thompson et al. in press).
Call that output
temperature a signal which goes into box with the CO2 feedback; the output
of this second box is the observable
temperatures from paleoclimate
proxies.
Along with tree rings and ice cores, which offer a window into land
temperatures throughout Earth's history, these are all examples
of «climate
proxies».
Amplitude and Duration: Davis identified 650 individual cycles
of Temperature -
proxy Oscillation (TO - c350) cycles in the Vostok data over the past 220,000 years.