For one thing the two negative forcings cancel out much or most
of the additional warming from the atmospheric CO2 and for another the atmospheric warming effect is miniscule in relation to the oceanic warming effect.
In turn, the IPCC argues there are various other positive feedbacks that multiply the effect
of the additional warming from the CO2.
Not exact matches
Correcting this error did not bring the early thermometers completely in line with proxies — up to 0.9 F
of additional warm bias might still persist
from other sources, such as differences in the thermometers or in how people read them — «but I think we are nearer to the truth,» said Böhm in 2012.
The
additional warming caused a near - doubling
of melt rates in the twenty - year period
from 1995 to 2015 compared to previous times when the same blocking and ocean conditions were present.
A large number
of additional observations are broadly consistent with the observed
warming and reflect a flow
of heat
from the atmosphere into other components
of the climate system.
Two Atlantic Ocean coral species — elkhorn and staghorn — are listed as «threatened» under the Endangered Species Act, and NOAA is considering whether an
additional 82 coral species also warrant some level
of protection under the law because
of threats
from warming water, ocean acidification and pollution.
These findings, along with those
from Alaska, point to global
warming as the culprit, but
additional work over a longer period
of time is needed before scientists can be certain
of that.
But the change
from 2004 to 2007 in the sun's output
of visible light, and the attendant
warming at Earth's surface
of 0.1 watt per square meter, is roughly equivalent to the overall forcing
of the sun on the climate over the past 25 years — estimated by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to be an
additional 0.12 watt per square meter.
However, the research shows that even 1.5 C
of additional warming could spell disaster for much
of the world's coral, says Prof Jean - Pierre Gattuso,
from the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), who was not involved in the research.
Immediately I picked out my yellow lace off shoulder top,
from H&M, which I bought quite a time ago, but couldn't wear until last week:) The details
of that top are so cute and the bright
warm, yellow shade just gives an
additional summer touch...
The other trick is
of course hidden layers, i'm not one to shy away
from a vest and any
additional touches to keep your neck
warm really help (neckerchiefs are a great option for both fashion statement and
warm neck needs).
One possible cause might be the 16 - year old, slightly mechanically stretched timing chain that gets the «right» amount
of additional elongation
from the
warm engine that puts the engine timing and more specifically the ignition timing out.
While a lot
of dogs do have thick hides to protect them
from the cold, most dogs do require an
additional layer
of covering to feel
warm.
The combination
of more CO2 and increased IR
from below must inevitably mean more
warming rather than more cooling, unless there is some
additional mechanism to accelerate cooling in excess
of warming.
The first is to emphasize your point that degassing
of CO2
from the oceans is not simply a matter
of warmer water reducing CO2 solubility, and that important
additional factors include changes in wind patterns, reduction in sea ice cover to reveal a larger surface for gas escape, and upwelling
of CO2
from depths consequent to the changing climate patterns.
If the enhanced atmospheric
warming from a CO2 - induced temperature rise
of 1 oC results in enhanced water vapour that gives an
additional warming of say x oC, the overall
warming (doubled CO2 + water vapour feedback; leaving out other feedbacks for now) will be something like 1.1 * (1 + x + x2 + x3...) or 1.1 / (1 - x)-RSB-.
With the
warming already committed in the climate system plus the
additional warming expected
from rising concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the Arctic will experience significant changes during this century even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized globally at a level lower than today's.
If the temperature doesn't decline with height in that layer (perhaps because
of solar heating), it is still the case that increasing the LW optical thickness will, by concentrating the source
of OLR into a yet thinner layer at the top
of the atmosphere, remove some
of the cooling
of the lower part
of the original OLR source (by adding
additional downward LW flux
from above, replacing the darkness
of space), thus tending to cause
warming there.
Do you agree that when the heating effect
of extra CO2 is due almost exclusively to what it itself absorbs
from outside, but the cooling effect entails an ability to dissipate heat
from the
additional source, cooling can now outweigh
warming?
(I think that an anomalously
warm ocean surface heated
from below would lead to more evaporation, and the
additional water vapor would give a positive greenhouse effect that would partially offset the effect
of a drop in greenhouse gas concentrations.)
The possibility exists that the unprecedented activity since 1995 is the result
of a combination
of the multidecadal - scale changes in Atlantic SSTs (and vertical shear) along with the
additional increase in SSTs resulting
from the long - term
warming trend.
Given that this 2.0 C goal calculation apparently excludes the ~ doubling
of warming due to the predictable loss
of the «sulphate parasol», and excludes all carbon feedback outputs, it is hard to see how an
additional forcing
from feedback permafrost methane «comparable to what CO2 can do» can be viewed as anything but calamitous.
So even if increased infrared radiation caused by man does try to
warm the surface
of the oceans those processes will increase immediately and neutralise at least the majority
of any extra
warming from additional down welling anthropogenic infrared radiation.
I also suspect that a good portion
of the
additional warming shown in the hybrid version
of the Cowtan and Way (2013) data (versus their Krig data) comes
from the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, where sea surface temperatures are cooling and lower troposphere temperatures are
warming.
Climate scenarios
from the Half a degree
Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted
from RCP4.5 simulations
of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).
Note, that I for the sake
of the argument, am looking at it
from Lindzens premises (natural variation + some role for CO2), call it «moderate
warming» and conclude that even that is alarming, because the resilience
of the socioecological earth system is very low in respect to
additional warming.
That is an
additional 18 years,
from 1979 to 1997, for a total
of either 34 or 30 years
of no -
warming since 1979.
«We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records
from GISS (NASA) with the 100 - year period covering 1906 - 2005 and the two 50 - year periods
from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005... The data document a strong urban heat island eff ect (UHI) and a
warming with increasing station elevation... About a quarter
of all the records for the 100 - year period show a fall in temperatures... that the observed temperature records are a combination
of long - term correlated records with an
additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings... As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40 % and 90 %, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered.»
The study, conducted by climate change experts
from the universities
of Leeds and Exeter and the Met Office, all in the UK, and the universities
of Stockholm and Oslo, suggests that nearly four million square kilometres
of frozen soil — an area larger than India — could be lost for every
additional degree
of global
warming the planet experiences.
Although there is considerable scientific evidence that limiting
warming to 1.5 degrees C is necessary to prevent very dangerous
warming, a fact implicit in the recent Paris Agreement in which nations agreed to work to keep
warming as close as possible
from exceeding 1.5 degrees C
additional warming, if the international community seeks to limit
warming to 2 degrees C it must assure that global emissions do not exceed the number
of tons
of CO2 emissions that will raise atmospheric concentrations to levels that will cause
warming of 2 degrees C.
The IPCC reports overstate the certainty
of future
warming associated with
additional CO2, and definitely overstate the certainty
of net harms that may result
from any
warming that does occur.
A certain amount
of continued
warming of the planet is projected to occur as a result
of human - induced emissions to date; another 0.5 °F increase would be expected over the next few decades even if all emissions
from human activities suddenly stopped, 11 although natural variability could still play an important role over this time period.12 However, choices made now and in the next few decades will determine the amount
of additional future
warming.
The international community agreed at a meeting
of the conference
of the parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in 2009 that the world must work together to limit
warming to an
additional 2oC to avoid rapid non-linear impacts
from climate change.
Because any
additional warming from current levels could have serious consequences to those most vulnerable to climate change, those who are most vulnerable should have as a matter
of procedural justice rights to consent to put at risk by the
additional 2 °C goal adopted in the Accord.
You'll note that the dude is clueless («Since surface temperature ncreased significantly
from 1976 to 1998, one would expect the deep ocean to
warm too, not because it's absorbing
additional heat but because
of the that increase in surface temperature.
With the late - summer ice edge located farther north than it used to be, storms produce larger waves and more coastal erosion.5 An
additional contributing factor is that coastal bluffs that were «cemented» by ice - rich permafrost are beginning to thaw in response to
warmer air and ocean waters, and are therefore more vulnerable to erosion.22 Standard defensive adaptation strategies to protect coastal communities
from erosion, such as use
of rock walls, sandbags, and riprap, have been largely unsuccessful.23 Several coastal communities are seeking to relocate to escape erosion that threatens infrastructure and services but, because
of high costs and policy constraints on use
of federal funds for community relocation, only one Alaskan village has begun to relocate (see also Ch.
There is new information that lack
of sea ice causes storms to produce larger waves and more coastal erosion.5 An
additional contributing factor is that coastal bluffs that were «cemented» by permafrost are beginning to thaw in response to
warmer air and ocean waters, and are therefore more vulnerable to erosion.22 Standard defensive adaptation strategies to protect coastal communities
from erosion such as use
of rock walls, sandbags, and riprap have been largely unsuccessful.23 There remains considerable uncertainty, however, about the spatial patterns
of future coastal erosion.
Based on the estimates
of TCR
warming from additional CO2 is very likely in the range
of 0.28 to 1.0 C with the best estimate near 0.6 C.
«The response to a 1 °C
warming is consistently an increase [in Katrina - level storm surges] by a factor
of 2 — 7... This increase does not include the
additional increasing surge threat
from sea level rise»
It is true that adding more
of the greenhouse gas affected by the specific wavelength (s)
of IRR will cause more
warming but that increase in
warming diminishes exponentially which renders any increase
from additional gas insignificant.
Small
additional biases, discussed above,
from changes in sea ice and differences in
warming rates
of SST and air just above the open ocean (which it appears the Cowtan and Way dataset does not adjust for) might push up the bias marginally.
Basically I see this as the result
of convection (
from the DSR
warmed water below) which increases the temperature up to the last mm or so and then the cooling above that is as a result
of energy loss at the surface and
additional energy loss
from evaporation which pushes the temperature down.
OR, not all the
additional DLR gets used by the
additional L and the ocean skin does
warm up a bit (as per the observations), which then does affect the rate
of conduction / convection
of energy
from below.
The second time period you still get 1
warming but now 0.44 is
from feedbacks
from the forcings
of the first time period so only 0.56 is
from additional forcing.
If yes, and there is not an
additional influx
of warmer water coming in
from the Bering Strait, then one can expect sea ice extent to be above or at the median for the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait areas in the future.
In fact, the Yohe paper that Romm cites suggests that
additional warming of up to 2 °C, may be on the whole a net benefit to humanity, even though, like others, it seems that study doesn't fully consider the increases in adaptive capacity and secular technological change, consideration
of which would reduce future damages
from climate change, effectively increasing the temperature beyond which climate change would result in net losses globally, and reduce the benefit - cost ratio for mitigation.
In defending their bonds
from the threat
of a SEC investigation, these municipalities have either provided
additional evidence that their lawsuits exaggerated the risks
of global
warming — or, even worse, that they downplayed those risks to investors and then paid someone to say otherwise.
Prior to the
additional 50 %
of total metric tonnes
of CO2 emissions being added to the world's biosphere, global
warming change easily matched or exceeded that experienced since 1988 - the year
of NASA's James Hansen's predictions
of climate apocalypse
from human CO2.
Additional data and information sources at www.earth-policy.org Read more about desertification: Breathtaking Desert Photos Don't Show How Thirsty it is Desertification May Curb Global
Warming in the Short Term «Wall
of Trees» Planned to Help Stop Sahara Desert
from Expanding
Farmers are faced with shrinking supplies
of irrigation water, a diminishing response to
additional fertilizer use, rising temperatures
from global
warming, the loss
of cropland to non-farm uses, rising fuel costs, and a dwindling backlog
of yield - raising technologies.