For 30 years, mainstream analysts have been declaring the end
of the secular bull market in bonds.
Not exact matches
It's why Wilson stressed that although we're seeing a cyclical top for US stocks, we're still
in the middle
of a
secular bull market.
We are entering the final leg
of the first stage
of the
secular bull market which began
in 2009.
We note, with a more than a little bit
of curiosity, that the last
secular bull market in U.S. stocks began
in 1982 — just when the first Boomers turned 35.
I'm also the author
of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal
of Gold's
Secular Bull Market and I host a podcast dedicated to bringing you insights and views from the brightest minds
in Gold and junior mining.
A confirmation
of the
secular bull market occurred
in December 2016, when QQQ penetrated its old high
of 120.50.
Taking into consideration the fact that there is just two other circumstances when the debt / GDP NYSE margin had increased by about 30 basis points or more
in a period
of only three months — that happened when the ration had reached its two major
secular bull market highs — the likelihood is highly probable that the NYSE margin debt / US GDP, is once more at its peak
of all time high
of 2.87 %!
His views are partially driven by the fact that
in the beginning
of the last
secular bull market, multiples were low and interest rates were high.
«
In the past, at the start
of these big
secular bull markets, you have really cheap stocks... I'm not sure we ever got to that point,» he says.
It should be given very a high attention that
in July 2007, after the debt / US GDP NYSE margin reached its pre-financial crisis high, the S&P 500 just three months later had reached its
bull market record monthly close, and after the debt / US GDP NYSE margin
in March
of 2000 had reach the dot - com bubble peak, the S&P 500 after just 5 months
in August
of 2000 had reached its
secular bull market record monthly close.
In any case, airlines are now going into their third year
of the present
secular bull market.
As long as KBE stays above 20.15 on a weekly closing basis, the ETF is most likely
in the middle stages
of a
secular bull market.
However, after enormous bailouts
of the largest financial institutions
in the country, as well as the auto industry, and even more monetary ease than
in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE, and QE2); we started another cyclical
bull market within the
secular bear
market.
US stocks are not now and were not at the beginning
of this move cheap enough
in my opinion to support a
secular bull market thesis.
The counter to that is that this is merely a cyclical
bull market in the context
of the
secular bear
market that started
in 2000.
Based purely on long - term cycles, a successful argument could be made that we have been
in a
secular commodity
bull market since the turn
of the century
in 2000.
In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 200
In the introduction to the last
Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
Bull Bear
Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
market began
in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 200
in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake
of believing that a
secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market started in March of
market started
in March of 200
in March
of 2009.
The Dow's P / E has averaged 16 during the past three years,
in the middle
of the range during
secular bull markets.
The average
secular bull market lasted 21.2 years and produced a total return
of 17.2 percent
in nominal terms and 15.9 percent
in real terms.
A
secular bull market in fixed income assets delivered bond investors equity - like returns with little volatility for the better part
of three decades.
3) The stock
market experiences extended periods
of secular bull markets and
secular bear
markets based on the trend
in P / E ratios, which is driven by the trend
in inflation.
These
secular trends can be seen
in the first set
of graphs below, which show the three
secular bull markets of last century which occurred from 1918 - 1929, 1950 - 1963, and from 1982 - 2000.
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are
in a
secular bear
market that began
in 2000.»
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are
in a
secular bear
market that began -LSB-...]
My own controversial perspective is that we are
in a cyclical
bull market, which is a part
of a larger
secular bear
market.
We believe that commodities are
in a
secular bull market, and this is where Canadian outperformance relative to the United States comes into play — nearly 45 %
of the TSX composite index is
in resources; almost triple the share
in the U.S. Almost 60 %
of Canada's exports are linked to the commodity sector, roughly double the U.S. exposure.
The following chart (from Too Little to Lock
In) provides a view
of the sort
of valuations we typically see at the beginning
of secular bull market advances, versus where we are at present.
Exploring the possibility
of the next U.S. recession, it's quite normal to experience two quarters
of declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth
in a
secular bull market for stocks.
If those two factors continue to be favorable, the United States and the rest
of the world can remain
in expansion mode, and the
secular bull market could continue.
Barry notes, «If the rate
of change data somehow corresponds to past shifts
in secular markets from bears to
bulls, this is potentially a very significant factor.»
In case
of secular bull run, DSPBR will run like a bullet but it will fall sharply f
market tanks.
In our final blog post
of 2017, we argued that the 2018 investment «vintage» would likely be defined by history as marking a cyclical turning point within a much larger
secular bull market for global risk assets.
The Coming Renewal
of Gold's
Secular Bull Market was first published
in May 2015 and updated
in January 2016.
In the first part of the book, he makes the case that secular bull markets are usually followed by secular range - bound markets, in which the drop in P / E ratios negate earnings growt
In the first part
of the book, he makes the case that
secular bull markets are usually followed by
secular range - bound
markets,
in which the drop in P / E ratios negate earnings growt
in which the drop
in P / E ratios negate earnings growt
in P / E ratios negate earnings growth.
In this study, I quantify the effect
of long lasting (
secular)
market trends (
bull markets and bear
markets).
You may know me from my book, The Coming Renewal
of Gold's
Secular Bull Market: Dump U.S. Stocks and Prepare for Gold's Final Run, which was first published
in May 2015 and correctly anticipated the revival
in Gold and gold mining stocks.
What I want you to take away from this chapter is the knowledge that there is extraordinary excitement
in commodities, which are
in the early stages
of a historic
secular bull market.
Despite common perception,
secular markets spend a lot
of time
in bull or sideways phases, and roughly an equal amount
in each.
Just like you can't make out the shape
of a galaxy unless you can view it from a distance, you can't know whether you're
in a
secular bear or
bull market until after it's over.
In this recording of a market analysis webinar that I did in October 2017 for Share Wealth Systems clients, you'll clearly see that a Secular Bull Market started in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more UPSID
In this recording
of a
market analysis webinar that I did in October 2017 for Share Wealth Systems clients, you'll clearly see that a Secular Bull Market started in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more U
market analysis webinar that I did
in October 2017 for Share Wealth Systems clients, you'll clearly see that a Secular Bull Market started in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more UPSID
in October 2017 for Share Wealth Systems clients, you'll clearly see that a
Secular Bull Market started in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more U
Market started
in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more UPSID
in April 2013 and that there is a fairly high probability that it could last until 2026 or even 2030 with significantly more UPSIDE.
Despite showing this end -
of -
Secular -
Bull -
Market period to make my point about market retracements, my technical view with the data currently at hand, as per the market analysis webinar mentioned above, is that the current Secular Bull Market is in it's first 5 years, not last 5 ye
Market period to make my point about
market retracements, my technical view with the data currently at hand, as per the market analysis webinar mentioned above, is that the current Secular Bull Market is in it's first 5 years, not last 5 ye
market retracements, my technical view with the data currently at hand, as per the
market analysis webinar mentioned above, is that the current Secular Bull Market is in it's first 5 years, not last 5 ye
market analysis webinar mentioned above, is that the current
Secular Bull Market is in it's first 5 years, not last 5 ye
Market is
in it's first 5 years, not last 5 years...
I'm also the author
of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal
of Gold's
Secular Bull Market and I host a podcast dedicated to bringing you insights and views from the brightest minds
in Gold and junior mining.
For example, the
market was
in a
secular bull market from 1982 - 2000, experiencing a strong primary uptrend where the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased over 10 fold from about a low
of 800 to over 10,000.
T.J. had observed that the overall
market was
in a
secular bull market and that the price
of oil seemed to be trending up.
As you can see, this
secular bear
market was typical
of most
secular bear
markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed
of mostly vicious cyclical
bull and bear
markets that result
in a mostly sideways long term movement.
Big Targets And «
Secular Bull Markets» As Bitcoin added almost 40 % in February from lows of under $ 6000 in some markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end of «secular bull market.
Secular Bull Markets» As Bitcoin added almost 40 % in February from lows of under $ 6000 in some markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end of «secular bull market.&ra
Bull Markets» As Bitcoin added almost 40 % in February from lows of under $ 6000 in some markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end of «secular bull market.
Markets» As Bitcoin added almost 40 %
in February from lows
of under $ 6000
in some
markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end of «secular bull market.
markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end
of «
secular bull market.
secular bull market.&ra
bull market.»
As Bitcoin added almost 40 %
in February from lows
of under $ 6000
in some
markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end
of «
secular bull market.»