Not exact matches
And cracks have begun to appear north
of the 49th parallel; GMP Securities analyst Michael Urlocker downgraded Research In Motion on April 21, saying it «risked becoming a
value trap — a
stock that looks cheap but isn't because its prospects are diminishing.»
If so, it will be because we overestimated the cashflows that they can generate, not because we blindly walked into a
trap of buying every
stock trading at a low multiple
of book
value.
We believe our methodology helps identify the most attractive
stocks at the best time to consider buying, helping to avoid
value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost
of holding a
stock with great potential but at an inopportune time.
Value investor Guy Spier writes: «I try to avoid walking into the
trap of making statements about any
stocks that we currently own, since the situation might later change or I might discover that I was wrong.
If so, it will be because we overestimated the cashflows that they can generate, not because we blindly walked into a
trap of buying every
stock trading at a low multiple
of book
value.
Finally, our experience is that by encapsulating typical market behavior in our approach, a far richer array
of stock recommendations can be captured, for example «the exception to the rule» in the case
of value traps.
In deciding how much
of each
stock to own, a focus on business Quality (as measured by profitability, stability and financial strength) helps us to maximise our exposure to those
stocks which are both attractively
valued and good quality and to avoid «
value traps».
These are excellent examples
of the challenges in
value investing — a
stock could be defined as under -
valued for a good reason, and may remain so for a significant period
of time, perhaps years or forever if the company has experienced a permanent and material change in operations (a «
value trap»).
Benjamin Graham, the father
of value investing, found the biggest risk
of buying bargains was purchasing low quality
stocks or
value traps.
I don't think the
Value Trap really has any validity for the Third Avenue portfolio of value common st
Value Trap really has any validity for the Third Avenue portfolio
of value common st
value common
stocks.
The unofficial definition
of a «
value trap» is a cheap
stock that is stuck around the current price.
Sometimes high yielding
stocks are
value traps and this strategy tries to get rid
of these
stocks in 2 ways.
I shared my
stock analyses of Credicorp in Taking Stock in BAP, Whirlpool in Taking Stock in WHR and discussed my pick for the Ultimate Value
stock analyses
of Credicorp in Taking
Stock in BAP, Whirlpool in Taking Stock in WHR and discussed my pick for the Ultimate Value
Stock in BAP, Whirlpool in Taking
Stock in WHR and discussed my pick for the Ultimate Value
Stock in WHR and discussed my pick for the Ultimate
Value Trap.
Notes through April 18, 2006 Revisiting P / E10, Revisiting P / E10: Dividends, NFB Closed, Links Repaired, The Big Project, Calculator D, Long - Term
Stock Returns, My Most Recent Articles, Dividend Calculators A and B, Dividend Growth Sensitivity Study, Three Powerful Advantages
of Dividend Strategies, Calculator H, CTVR Calculator A, Dividends and Constant Terminal
Value Rates, HCTVR Calculator A, May 2006 Highlights, Investment
Traps, Variable Terminal
Value Rate Calculator A, Variable Terminal
Value Rate Calculator B, Why People Ignore Valuations, Latching Calculators, Latched Threshold Survey, Investing for Dummy — The Six «Must Know» Rules, Early Success with Latch and Hold, Continued Success with Latch and Hold, Adding Constraints to Latch and Hold, Time To Catch Up Calculator Notes through June 12, 2006
The concept
of value investing is certainly not new to investors, nor is the notion
of a
value trap (when the
stock price takes a dive and it looks like a better
value).
Revisiting P / E10, Revisiting P / E10: Dividends, NFB Closed, Links Repaired, The Big Project, Calculator D, Long - Term
Stock Returns, My Most Recent Articles, Dividend Calculators A and B, Dividend Growth Sensitivity Study, Three Powerful Advantages
of Dividend Strategies, Calculator H, CTVR Calculator A, Dividends and Constant Terminal
Value Rates, HCTVR Calculator A, May 2006 Highlights, Investment
Traps, Variable Terminal
Value Rate Calculator A, Variable Terminal
Value Rate Calculator B, Why People Ignore Valuations, Latching Calculators, Latched Threshold Survey, Investing for Dummy — The Six «Must Know» Rules, Early Success with Latch and Hold, Continued Success with Latch and Hold, Adding Constraints to Latch and Hold, Time To Catch Up Calculator Notes through June 12, 2006 The Lower Latch and Hold Threshold, Additional Constraints with Latch and Hold, Current Research I: Latch and Hold, Dividend Investors, The Accumulation Stage, Idiot Switching, Latch and Hold Spreadsheet A, Typical
Values of P / E10, Growth with Switching, Special Note about Mean Reversion, No New Discovery This Time, Looking a Little Bit Harder, The
Stock - Return Predictor, Calculator I. Notes starting June 13, 2006.
Of course, nothing is set in stone in the
stock market and
value stocks can quickly become
value trap stocks.
This is because the
value factor can screen for
stocks that are attractively priced, while the momentum factor looks for
stocks that have recently demonstrated strong risk - adjusted returns, which may help reduce the probability
of buying into a
value trap.
This is because
value stocks showing poor momentum can be removed from a portfolio (depending on when it reconstitutes), reducing the chances
of continuing to hold a
value trap.
We only want to buy the
stocks of companies that are real
value investments, not
value traps.
I don't think we can categorically declare that these
stocks are
value traps until we give them time to work their way out
of the screen one way or another (i.e. they're too expensive because the
stock price is up, or the fundamentals are destroyed).
The problem with magic formula companies is that too many
of the
stocks in the top 50 are
value traps whose business models aren't sustainable, and are on the list when the past 12 months is a poor predictor
of future returns.
Yes, a catalyst (perhaps an activist investor) can definitely add new momentum to a
stock, or might even arrest a decline into a
value trap... Piotroski, Altman & Lakonishok are introduced here also, and are a nice prep for: Part 4, which covers Risk, Diversification & Margin
of Safety.
Speaking at the
Value Investing Conference, Jim Chanos, President of the Kynikos Associate and a noted short in the market listed 5 different sectors and 5 representative stocks as value t
Value Investing Conference, Jim Chanos, President
of the Kynikos Associate and a noted short in the market listed 5 different sectors and 5 representative
stocks as
value t
value traps.
Value traps — for purposes of investing — are defined as: «situations in which shareholder value exists but is never realized in the form of market appreciation in stock price to roughly equate with intrinsic value, dividends or legitimate share repurchases.&r
Value traps — for purposes
of investing — are defined as: «situations in which shareholder
value exists but is never realized in the form of market appreciation in stock price to roughly equate with intrinsic value, dividends or legitimate share repurchases.&r
value exists but is never realized in the form
of market appreciation in
stock price to roughly equate with intrinsic
value, dividends or legitimate share repurchases.&r
value, dividends or legitimate share repurchases.»
On the other hand,
value traps are those
stocks that are trading at a low valuation because
of long - term or permanent setbacks (factors).
Although these
value trap stocks might be trading at a low valuation compared to its past valuation or market, however, the chances
of these
stocks bouncing back to their historical valuation are quite low.
If the earnings and cash flow
of a company are consistently declining for past few couples
of years, then the
stock might be a
value trap.
The
value traps are those
stocks which are «not» cheap because the market has not realized their true potential or because
of some temporary setbacks.
Unlike
value stocks, these
value traps do not have true potential to give good returns to their investors and that's why their price keeps on declining for a continued period
of time.
And I'm rather amused to see Hot Tuna mentioned as a
value trap — coincidentally, a
stock so pathetic it inspired me to write about it a couple
of times..!
Such an approach, without closer
stock - by -
stock analysis, could lead to a «
value trap» — a strategy that erroneously favors
stocks with low multiples, but which continue to underperform nonetheless, often because earnings fall short
of expectations.