Sentences with phrase «of the yield curve as»

For example, it is often useful to view the short - end of the yield curve as being primarily influenced by growth, with the long - end mostly reflecting inflation expectations.

You would be speculating on different points of the yield curve as your bond aged.

Not exact matches

Especially since the recent behavior of Japan's key financial market variables (stock indices, the yield curve and the yen's exchange rate) could be seen as a sign of support for reflationary policies.

Since then, longer rates have come closer to being overtaken by short rates, a phenomenon known as yield curve inversion, which has been a reliable precursor of past recessions.

«The yield curve is not nearly as much of a concern as I might have pointed to a couple months ago,» Evans said in Chicago after a speech, in response to a reporter's question.

NEW YORK, Nov 28 - The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of standing by as financial markets «correct» as the central bank trims its asset holdings, U.S. hedge fund manager David Tepper said on Tuesday, adding he was surprised the bond - yield curve was so flat.

«If the Fed continues to raise rates according to our forecast and the term premium does not recover, the yield curve would invert by the end of 2019, potentially as early as June of next year,» they write in a note.

The yield curve - the plot of all of the yields on Treasury securities of maturities from four weeks to 30 years - is used as a signal of economic health of the economy.

But the bank has taken more extreme measures, such as ramping up purchases to more than 40 percent of the market overall and saying it would control the yield curve by keeping the 10 - year government bond yield around 0 percent.

A flattening yield curve moving toward an inverted curve traditionally has been seen as a sign of a...

Achievement of these goals was considered by the HRC as very challenging, even aggressive, given the expected modest economic growth for 2007 for the financial services industry, the impact and duration of the on - going flat / inverted yield curve (meaning short - term interest rates that are virtually equal to or exceed long - term interest rates, thus lowering profit margins for financial services companies that borrow cash at short - term rates and lend at long - term rates), potentially higher credit losses, fewer available high - quality, high - yielding loans and investment opportunities, and a consumer shift from non-interest to interest - bearing deposits.

As a result, the yield curve flattened and by the end of December was near inversion for the first time in a decade.

These include financials, which should benefit from a steepening yield curve, but also segments of the consumer space and «old economy» companies in sectors such as industrials and energy.

No corporate issuer, or class of issuers, is ever likely to be able to provide a yield curve as well - defined and liquid as that of the Commonwealth.

Even as rates rise in general, the influence of central banks and expectations for inflation can create short term movements in the yield curve that can be exploited using systematic style premia.

Bond market geeks refer to this as a «flattening of the yield curve,» meaning that shorter - term interest rates rose while longer - term interest rates fell.

When growth is strong and inflation is falling, as happened during the 1980s, you could indeed have a «bullish flattening» of the yield curve (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).

The difference between long - term and short - term interest rates is known as the «slope of the yield curve», or «the term spread.»

The Barron's article pointed this out as well, citing London - based «G+E conomics» head Lena Komileva: «A surplus of investment funds looking for returns in low - yield global markets results in a cap on longer - term yields and a flat yield curve.»

Also, I've mentioned previously that the long end of the yield curve today is probably being influenced by international forces, as rates are lower overseas.

As the Federal Reserve raises rates, the short end of the yield curve has risen, as one would expecAs the Federal Reserve raises rates, the short end of the yield curve has risen, as one would expecas one would expect.

The long end of the yield curve has risen as well, perhaps on expectations of faster inflation.

Dave Altig of MacroBlog fame suggests NY Fed's Arturo Estrella yield curve primer: The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicyield curve primer: The Yield Curve as a Leading Indiccurve primer: The Yield Curve as a Leading IndicYield Curve as a Leading IndicCurve as a Leading Indicator.

To some extent, stock market action also implies expectations for slower economic growth, though interest rate signals, such as a flat yield curve, are more suggestive of slow growth than stock market action is, and we've yet to see a substantial widening of credit spreads that would suggest imminent recession.

On the short - side of the yield curve, the consensus seems to interpret the Federal Open Market Committee's recent use of the word «gradual» as an indication that it will allow inflation to run higher than 2 % in order to make up for the last 20 years of below - target growth.

Secondary real estate cities outside of core gateway cities such as New York, London, Tokyo, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Paris, Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, and Shanghai continue to provide opportunities for yields in markets and asset types that fall farther along the risk curve than those available in gateway markets that are saturated.

One of the indicators some economists have their eye on right now is what's known as the flattening yield curve — or the difference between long - term and short - term Treasury yields.

Ashwin Alankar of Janus Henderson published his latest article «Brace for Steeper Yield Curves as the Wolves Return,» which highlighted grey wolf's role in maintaining a delicate balance in Yellowstone's ecosystem by keeping population of herbivores in - check, which in - turn reduced risks of overgrazing of young brush and trees in the park.

With the exception of the very front end of the yield curve, Canadian government bond yields declined, as did spreads on investment grade corporate bonds.

US Treasury yields which have been in the focus in the last days are slightly lower today, especially regarding the longer end of the curve, as core durable goods orders came in much lower than expected, even as the less reliable headline number beat the consensus estimate.

These involve the investor borrowing at the short end of the yield curve, particularly in those countries where rates have been very low, such as the United States, Japan and Switzerland, and investing either further out along the yield curve or in countries where interest rates have been relatively high, such as Australia and the United Kingdom.

If Fed liftoff does occur this fall as I expect, it's most likely to manifest in what is referred to as a flattening of the yield curve.

In doing so, investors are taking on a range of risks such as exposure to changes in the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads or exchange rates.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesAs usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesas measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesas measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

As the yields on these bonds change, the «shape» of the yield curve changes.

The long end of the UST curve is already just as unenthused as ever, while the short end expects higher yields on money substitutes.

Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle.

In Australia, we have come to think of the downward sloping yield curve as the norm, and banks have developed cash management - type products to cater for those wishing to capitalise on high short term interest rates.

In April, the long end of the yield curve underperformed, and as municipal bonds have more of their interest rate exposure coming from the long end, this contributed to their underperformance.

Bernanke has become known for his quote that he would be willing to throw money out of helicopters to keep an economy from falling into deflation; he is also known as an advocate of managing the entire yield curve actively, not just short - term rates as is the traditional domain of central banks.

I think over the past 10 years, due to the zero - interest - rate policies by the global central banks, we have had a massive amount of debt issuance that's occurred as investors had been encouraged to go out the curve or down the credit curve in order to seek income, seek yield.

Japan's 10 - year yield was capped at 0.10 % as the Bank of Japan intervened to maintain its yield curve control policy.

In any case, investors should keep in mind that the stock market's reaction to Fed cuts has historically been dependent on other conditions such as valuations, economic expectations and the slope of the yield curve.

But we prefer shorter - duration Treasuries, as policy shifts that steepen global yield curves make us cautious of longer - duration U.S. government bonds.

It's known as a yield curve inversion and typically a sign of a coming recession.

Since mortgage rates are tied to the longer end of the Treasury yield curve, as those rates rise, we may see demand impacted from higher mortgage rates.

Hence, a flat yield curve can be seen as a yardstick of ineffective policy normalization focusing on the «wrong part of the term structure.»

As I understand it, and still consider myself a student of the market (and will most likely always have this approach, to keep me humble) the overall yield curve is a good indicator.

Thus the yield curve flattens, as the pace of rising two - year yields has been greater than that of 10 - year yields.

And so the yield curve could possibly approach inversion, but it may or may not occur or stay there very long because at that stage of the game, the flattening of the yield curve will greatly intensify all the other effects — the reduction in the reserve, monetary, and credit aggregates, as well as the weakness in velocity.