Sentences with phrase «of uncertainties in the observations»

Model forecasts are verified against model control simulations (perfect model experiments), thus overcoming to some extent issues of uncertainties in the observations and / or model parameterizations.

Not exact matches

We are «concerned that these major findings are presented ambiguously within the Executive Summary and are inconsistent with the observations, data, and levels of uncertainty presented and discussed in the body of the draft Assessment Report,» states the review.

As I point out in the video, his observations showed the masses of clusters were too large, but the numbers he got were far too high, and we now know they must have been in error (or, to be more fair, his uncertainties were too large).

In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior.

Mission leaders were relieved and eager to begin their studies of cloud and haze effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties in our models of future climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, and the principal investigator for ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).

His seminal paper, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 1952, is also famous for its tongue - in - cheek lecture on the uncertainties inherent in extrapolating laboratory and proxy observations to the high pressure and high temperature interiors of planets.

«We've done the world's best job of decreasing the uncertainty in the measured rate of universal expansion and of accurately assessing the size of this uncertainty,» said Filippenko, «yet we find that our measured rate of expansion is probably incompatible with the rate expected from observations of the young universe, suggesting that there's something important missing in our physical understanding of the universe.»

While this leads to an elevation in the level of scientific understanding from very low in the TAR to low in this assessment, uncertainties remain large because of the lack of direct observations and incomplete understanding of solar variability mechanisms over long time scales.»

Our new -LCB- \ em Spitzer -RCB- observations were taken two years after the original K2 discovery data and have a significantly higher cadence, allowing us to derive improved estimates for this planet's radius, semi-major axis, and orbital period, which greatly reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of near future transit times for the -LCB- \ em James Webb Space Telescope -RCB--LRB--LCB- \ em JWST -RCB--RRB- observations.

Ongoing radio observations (SMA, JCMT, VLA) of Sirius A are being used to set an observationally determined standard for stellar atmosphere modeling and debris disk studies around A stars, as well as to take the first step toward characterizing potential intrinsic uncertainty in stellar emission at these wavelengths.

Observations of gravitational lensing at that time already hinted the presence of dark energy, but both due to the small sample size and large uncertainty in the theoretical modeling of lensing rates the result was not widely accepted.

The period where ARGO data makes up the bulk of data (2004 - 2008 in red) has a greater uncertainty only because their period of observation is much shorter (5 years), versus 11 years for the interval where XBT data predominates (1993 - 2003 in blue).

We encourage contributions on current and prospective observation technologies for GHGs, modeling studies to quantify budgets and / or uncertainties in GHG flux estimates, and evaluation and benchmarking of GHG estimates from Earth System Models using contemporary observations.

Scientists are using airborne observations of atmospheric trace gases, aerosols, and cloud properties from the North Slopes of Alaska to improve their understanding of global climate, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in global and regional climate simulations and projections.

Despite the observation of CDV contributing to declines in several endangered populations, many uncertainties remain about the threat that it poses.

In the world of education the Uncertainty Principle could mean that due to these uncertainty relations the act of observation (or a standardised test) affects the quality of the object (student learning) ofUncertainty Principle could mean that due to these uncertainty relations the act of observation (or a standardised test) affects the quality of the object (student learning) ofuncertainty relations the act of observation (or a standardised test) affects the quality of the object (student learning) of education.

And since we don't have good ocean heat content data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty in the attribution for that period than for more recently.

Therefore, the contribution of random independent errors to the uncertainty on the global average SST is much smaller than the contribution of random error to the uncertainty on a single observation even in the most sparsely observed years»

Although some earlier work along similar lines had been done by other paleoclimate researchers (Ed Cook, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Ray Bradley, Malcolm Hughes, and Henry Diaz being just a few examples), before Mike, no one had seriously attempted to use all the available paleoclimate data together, to try to reconstruct the global patterns of climate back in time before the start of direct instrumental observations of climate, or to estimate the underlying statistical uncertainties in reconstructing past temperature changes.

There are basically two key points (explored in more depth here)-- comparisons should be «like with like», and different sources of uncertainty should be clear, whether uncertainties are related to «weather» and / or structural uncertainty in either the observations or the models.

There are uncertainties in parts of the general circulation models used to forecast future climate, but thousands of scientists have made meticulous efforts to make sure that the processes are based on observations of basic physics, laboratory measurements, and sound theoretical calculations.

If the predicted cooling by la Nina had not occurred then 2008 would probably have been the same temperature (given the uncertainties) as every year since 2001 and that in itself would require explanation.I am broadly in favour of the global warmingCO2 hypothesis but I know it is just that, a hypothesis — and that needs testing against real observations in the physical world.

To establish this uncertainty in the ice - volume record (Schweiger et al. 2011), we spent a significant effort drawing on most types of available observations of ice thickness thanks to a convenient compilation of ice thickness data (Lindsay, 2010).

* Indeed, possible errors in the amplitudes of the external forcing and a models response are accounted for by scaling the signal patterns to best match observations, and thus the robustness of the IPCC conclusion is not slaved to uncertainties in aerosol forcing or sensitivity being off.

This is of course the same Douglass et al paper that used completely incoherent statistics and deliberately failed to note the structural uncertainty in the observations.

*** «Perhaps concern over «uncertainty» in complex, adaptive, open systems should be investigated by inductive generalization from observations of the dynamics of a wide range of such systems: ecosystems, social systems, computer systems, immune systems, economic systems... It is curious that the following things are never admitted as «facts about the world,» but here goes: the observer would note of all of these systems that they undergo oscillations within apparent parameters and occasionally flip into new regimes; they often demonstrate novel emergence; and that increased forcing, whether of native elements or exotic ones, increases the rates of oscillation and catastrophic shifts, sometimes after a quieter period of sub-threshold build - up.

It is argued that uncertainty, differences and errors in sea ice model forcing sets complicate the use of models to determine the exact causes of the recently reported decline in Arctic sea ice thickness, but help in the determination of robust features if the models are tuned appropriately against observations.

«In summary, newly available observations from both space - borne and surface - based platforms allow a better quantification of the Global Energy Budget, even though notable uncertainties remain, particularly in the estimation of the non-radiative surface energy balance components.&raquIn summary, newly available observations from both space - borne and surface - based platforms allow a better quantification of the Global Energy Budget, even though notable uncertainties remain, particularly in the estimation of the non-radiative surface energy balance components.&raquin the estimation of the non-radiative surface energy balance components.»

While this leads to an elevation in the level of scientific understanding from very low in the TAR to low in this assessment, uncertainties remain large because of the lack of direct observations and incomplete understanding of solar variability mechanisms over long time scales.»

The agreement of this model with observations is particularly good and perhaps partly fortuitous, given that there is still uncertainty both in the climate sensitivity and in the amplitudes of the aerosol and solar forcings.

The uncertainties observed in estimates of forest carbon stocks demonstrate the urgent need for improved Earth observation tools to support climate change policy development, say Isabella Bovolo and Daniel Donoghue

«Thorne et al. ended with the conclusion that «there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively».»

I note the increasing frequency of papers which either seek to deny / explain the observed 21st century pause / cessation in warming, either through uncertainty or observation error.

It's risk assessment theory that is the more appropriate mode of thinking in debating the risks of CO2, knowing what we know about risk / uncertainty of the carbon cycle, paleo - research, modelling, observations, etc..

How Thorne et al could credibly claim that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively is mind - boggling.

The uncertainties in the models, theory, and observations of climate change and associated risks and the sheer complexity of the problem provide many rounds of ammunition for the agenda - driven, be they apocalyptic or denialist.

And, in spite of all its complexity and uncertainties, we should not lose track of the simple fact that theory, actual observations of the planet, and complex models - however imperfect each is in isolation - all point to ongoing, potentially dangerous human alteration of climate.

Comparisons of the type performed here need to be made with an appreciation of the uncertainties in the historical estimates of radiative forcing and various sampling issues in the observations.

In a optimal comparison of observations with a model every empirical value should have a weight that varies only based on empirical uncertainties in the particular value, not on it's closeness to either end of the full perioIn a optimal comparison of observations with a model every empirical value should have a weight that varies only based on empirical uncertainties in the particular value, not on it's closeness to either end of the full perioin the particular value, not on it's closeness to either end of the full period.

The high confidence level ascribed by the IPCC provides bootstrapped plausibility to the uncertain temperature observations, uncertain forcing, and uncertain model sensitivity, each of which has been demonstrated in the previous sections to have large uncertainties that were not accounted for in the conclusion.

What many previous emergent - constraint studies have done is to take such a band of observations and project it onto the vertical ECS axis using the estimated regression line between ECS and the natural fluctuations, taking into account uncertainties in the estimated regression model.

In fact, most uncertainties in the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etcIn fact, most uncertainties in the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etcin the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etc..

In the mid 19th century the largest components of the uncertainty at annual time scales are the measurement and sampling uncertainty and the coverage uncertainty because there were few observations made by a small global fleet.

True skeptics understand that given the type and level of uncertainty (arguably most of what we deal with in climate other than direct observations), uncertainty is not «quantifiable» as in a pdf or something, but should be characterized in other ways.

Initial condition uncertainty arises due to errors in the estimate of the starting conditions for the forecast, both due to limited observations of the atmosphere, and uncertainties involved in using indirect measurements, such as satellite data, to measure the state of atmospheric variables.

(In addition the relative weights of the observations vary, and this adds an additional factor to the resulting estimate of the uncertainty from uncorrelated part of the errors.)

Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800 - 1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880 - 2009,2 and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.3 The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100.4 These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies.

The measurement uncertainties account for correlations between errors in observations made by the same ship or buoy due, for example, to miscalibration of the thermometer.

By Dr. Tim Ball It is not surprising that Roe and Baker explained in a 2007 Science paper that, «The envelope of uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably over the past 30 years, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem.»

I would also say that, although TOBS corrections are not done for all global data, the TOBS error uncertainty shown in this chart is probably present in most global data, as probably relatively few stations have an effective observation time of midnight.