Sentences with phrase «of uncertainty in climate predictions»

I once heard John Holdren (President Obama's science advisor) speak on the issue of uncertainty in climate predictions.

Not exact matches

By improving the understanding of how much radiation CO2 absorbs, uncertainties in modelling climate change will be reduced and more accurate predictions can be made about how much Earth is likely to warm over the next few decades.

At present, the long - term recovery of the Ozone Layer from the effects of CFCs is still on track, but the presence of increasing dichloromethane will lead to uncertainty in our future predictions of ozone and climate.»

Some scientists react by avoiding talk of the complexity and uncertainties in climate prediction, says Joussaume, but she does the opposite.

As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed warming» will occur in the future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding of these processes.

«In the face of natural variability and complexity, the consequences of change in any single factor, for example greenhouse gas emissions, can not readily be isolated, and prediction becomes difficult... Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future change.&raquIn the face of natural variability and complexity, the consequences of change in any single factor, for example greenhouse gas emissions, can not readily be isolated, and prediction becomes difficult... Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future change.&raquin any single factor, for example greenhouse gas emissions, can not readily be isolated, and prediction becomes difficult... Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future change.&raquin recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future change.»

The uncertainty in aerosol forcing looks unsettling, but this is a good example of the case where one needs to ask: What are the consequences of this uncertainty for our predictions of future climate?

The formation and properties of the aerosol cloud that sits above the monsoon are a major unknown in climate science, and their potential future changes represent one of the largest uncertainties in climate predictions.

Stainforth, D.A., et al., 2005: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

Due to the complexity of physical processes, climate models have uncertainties in global temperature prediction.

The work of Schmittner et al. demonstrates that climates of the past can provide potentially powerful information to reduce uncertainty in future climate predictions and evaluate the likelihood of climate change that is larger than captured in present models.

pg xiii This Policymakers Summary aims to bring out those elements of the main report which have the greatest relevance to policy formulation, in answering the following questions • What factors determine global climate 7 • What are the greenhouse gases, and how and why are they increasing 9 • Which gases are the most important 9 • How much do we expect the climate to change 9 • How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change global climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymaker.

My concern about the last paragraph above is related to the high level of uncertainty in regional climate predictions.

The promotion of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt is good for supporting the premise that uncertainty is the important factor in climate pUncertainty, and Doubt is good for supporting the premise that uncertainty is the important factor in climate puncertainty is the important factor in climate predictions.

In terms of climate change model predictions, there is a high degree of uncertainty in both regions as to what comes next in an anthropogenic climate change scenariIn terms of climate change model predictions, there is a high degree of uncertainty in both regions as to what comes next in an anthropogenic climate change scenariin both regions as to what comes next in an anthropogenic climate change scenariin an anthropogenic climate change scenario.

Uncertainties in our understanding of climate processes, the natural variability of the climate, and limitations of the GCMs mean that their results are not definite predictions of climate.»

These uncertainties are reflected in divergent predictions of climate change made by computer models.

Climate science results will simply be by - passed because of the ever - present small uncertainties inherent in all predictions.

We must also communicate the growth in model uncertainty as model predictions of the future advance farther and farther from the present climate state.

For the near future the uncertainty in climate prediction justifies choosing polices that guide us towards net negative emissions as quickly as possible and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases at levels significantly lower than today.

Giorgi, F. and Francisco, R., 2000: Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change.

Secondly, deterministically formulated climate models are incapable of predicting the uncertainty in their predictions; and yet this is a crucially important prognostic variable for societal applications.

The cloud feedback question is one of the largest remaining uncertainties in future climate predictions, so this is an important new paper.

Uncertainties in our understanding of climate processes, the natural variability of the climate, and limitations of the GCMs mean that their results are not definite predictions of future climate.

Uncertainty... whether a blip in the Five Year Plan or fifteen year projections in weather, even predictions of April's showers by climate modellers in cloud towers.

The reason for the «wild range» of model predictions has much more to do with the uncertainty in how emissions will play out in the coming century than it does in the climate sensitivity to CO2 forcing.

(Here is another person in your institution who is interested in uncertainty of climate prediction — though I do not work on it but just want to use such information.)

However, multiple sources of uncertainty in the chain from climate forcing to impact model limit confidence in specific predictions.

This large spread in the predictions reflects the current diversity in the formulation of physics and initial conditions in the various models used, but also inherent uncertainty of the climate system.

These observations should be considered in the testing of cloud parameterizations in climate models, which remain sources of substantial uncertainty in global warming prediction.»

A rational public and private sector response to the threat of storm damage in a changing climate must therefore acknowledge scientific uncertainties that are likely to persist beyond the time at which decisions will need to be made, focus more on the risks and benefits of planning for the worst case scenarios, and recognize that the combination of societal trends and the most confident aspects of climate change predictions makes future economic impacts substantially more likely than does either one alone.

The Process Study and Model Improvement (PSMI) Panel's mission is to reduce uncertainties in the general circulation models used for climate variability prediction and climate change projections through an improved understanding and representation of the physical processes governing climate and its variation.

Interestingly, one of Frame's co-authors, Myles Allen, seems now to have abandoned the Frame 05 advocacy of using a uniform prior in S when estimating S («Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in climate prediction» lecture at Oslo conference, 2010).

«Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions of global climate change will require major advances in understanding and modeling of both (1) the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and (2) the so - called «feedbacks» that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in greenhouse gases.»

In this context, climate assessments could benefit from exploration of alternative uncertainty frameworks, such as possibilistic prediction (e.g. Betz 2010).

The representation of cloud processes in global atmospheric models has been recognized for decades as the source of much of the uncertainty surrounding predictions of climate variability.

The use of a multi-model ensemble in the IPCC assessment reports is an attempt to characterize the impact of parameterization uncertainty on climate change predictions.

Thus, using various kinds of climate model ensembles including both MMEs and SMEs, we may expect to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction in the future.

Abstract: Quantifying the uncertainty for the present climate and the predictions of climate change in the suite of imperfect Atmosphere Ocean Science (AOS) computer models is a central issue in climate change science.

They question (1) the «maturity» of climate prediction; (2) «flaws in the alarmist paradigm»; (3) «mishandling of uncertainties»; (4) «scandal of non-disclosure and poor archiving», and (5) «inadequacies of peer reviews».

Aerosol impacts remain a source of major uncertainty in climate prediction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002 climate prediction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002 Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002 --RRB-.

The U.K. government's chief scientific advisor, John Beddington, has acknowledged some climate scientists exaggerated the impact of global warming and called for more honesty in explaining to the public the inherent uncertainties of predictions based on computer climate models, adding: «I don't think it's healthy to dismiss proper skepticism.»

Other researchers uncovered large uncertainties in climate predictions made by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a widely used, multimodel tool for climate analysis.

By engaging with decision makers in both the private and public sector on issues related to weather and seasonal climate variability through my company CFAN, my perspective on uncertainty and confidence in context of prediction, and how to convey this, has utterly and irreversibly changed.

* D. A. Stainforth, et al., (2005) «Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases» Nature 433, 403 - 406.