Sentences with phrase «of uncertainty in forecast»

Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast, it is very likely that 2015 will be one of the warmest years in a series dating back to 1880.

Then, almost as a joke: «The OBR notes that there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty in this forecast.»

Over decades, improvements in observations of the present climate, reconstructions of ancient climate, and computer models that simulate past, current, and future climate have reduced some of the uncertainty in forecasting how rising temperatures will ripple through the climate system.

Not exact matches

The majority of banks and economists have forecast a UK recession in the wake of Britain's shock decision to leave the European Union, as investment and trade suffer from the uncertainty around the country's future.

Singapore downgraded its forecasts on economic growth and exports for 2016 after confirming a contraction in output in the third quarter, raising the risk of a recession amid fresh uncertainty around global trade under U.S. President - elect Donald Trump.

However, given the uncertainties caused by the financial crisis, the Harper Government introduced the «risk adjustment factor» in its October 2010 Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections, whereby the average of the private sector economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning purposes.

Including a risk factor in the PBO forecast to allow for uncertainties in achieving spending reductions would eliminate the PBO forecast of a surplus in 2015 - 16

Apart from the uncertainty associated with the risks noted above and the lack of credible prudence in the budget projections, we continue to believe that the forecast for «other revenues» is overstated and that for «direct program expenses» is understated.

Both studies came to the same basic conclusion: that the risks and uncertainties involved in budget forecasting were simply too large to allow for a high level of forecast accuracy.

While the industry waits for metals prices and demand to pick up again — which some forecasts are predicting could start in the second half of 2009 — Ryan Montpellier, executive director of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council (MiHR) is hoping the bad news and uncertainty don't scare too many people off.

It's also the greatest source of uncertainty in the overall forecast.

Since the average error in a 2 - day forecast is about 90 miles, it is important to remember that the models may still have additional shifts, and one must pay attention to the NHC cone of uncertainty.

Powell has in the past expressed a view that Fed communication «should do more to emphasize the uncertainty that surrounds all economic forecasts, should downplay short - term tactical questions such as the timing of the next rate increase, and should focus the public's attention instead on the considerations that go into making policy across the range of plausible paths for the economy.»

Overall, the IMF's prediction for global growth of 3.1 % in 2016 remained subdued, with the institution citing the uncertainty created by the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union (EU) and slower - than - expected US growth as restraining factors since its last set of forecasts in April.

Moreover, for all the uncertainties of long - term population forecasting, the likely change in size and composition of a national population can be predicted over the course of the coming calendar year with far greater certainty than can changes in the harvest, the gross national product, the unemployment rate, the foreign exchange rate, or the demand for any particular product.

But there is uncertainty associated with all the forecasts and some forecasters are trying to estimate the extent of that uncertainty, which in turn can be used to calculate probabilities of particular events (hung parliament, largest party, etc..)

The severity of that decline is likely to be a short term response to heightened uncertainty - even the severe forecast on Britain leaving the single market only suggests a 2.4 % rise in unemployment from where it would have been in 2018.

These changes happen in every electoral cycle and are the reason that decades of forecasts of new settlements, moulds being broken and unprecedented uncertainty are usually wrong.

«While there is some uncertainty regarding the size, position and timing of this year's hypoxic zone in the Gulf, the forecast models are in overall agreement that hypoxia will be larger than we have typically seen in recent years.»

But although Velders and other scientists routinely acknowledge the uncertainty in their forecasts, «that's not what politicians do,» says Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development in Washington, D.C., which backed aggressive HFC reductions.

As we mentioned briefly, that leads to a «sweet spot» for forecasting of a couple of decades into the future where the initial condition uncertainty dies away, but the uncertainty in the emission scenario is not yet so large as to be dominating.

In September, the observed CO2 concentration of 401.01 was slightly below our central forecast, but still within our published uncertainty bounds.

While there is always uncertainty in population projections, Australia's total population as well as the number of births is forecast to grow over the long term [13].

Furthermore, we unequivocally find statistically significant correlations in out - of - sample international and emerging markets similar to those we find in U.S. markets, although the timing signal has unsurprising uncertainty in any forecast of alpha (it's pretty noisy).

In Andrew Revkin's article today entitled «In Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionIn Andrew Revkin's article today entitled «In Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionIn Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionin the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissions.

There are uncertainties in parts of the general circulation models used to forecast future climate, but thousands of scientists have made meticulous efforts to make sure that the processes are based on observations of basic physics, laboratory measurements, and sound theoretical calculations.

-- A new post on ClimateEthics.org argues, as others have before, for another uncomfortable reality: Complacency is not an ethical response to the persistent uncertainty clouding forecasts of harmful impacts from the continuing buildup of human - generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

I contacted Dr. Alley last night to see where he'll focus in coming years, and he stressed the importance of two things — bridging the persistent gap between scientists and the public on climate and working to reduce persistent uncertainties in climate forecasts: Read more...

In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioIn other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioin some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioin some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.

A new post on ClimateEthics.org argues, «Complacency is not an ethical response to the persistent uncertainty clouding forecasts of harmful impacts from the continuing buildup of human - generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.»

Interpretation of the ensemble, including successive forecasts, helps assess uncertainty and confidence in the forecast.

The models don't by any means capture the uncertainty in their forecasts, and their are a large number of other sources of uncertainty in the models used to forecast emissions from concentrations).

Gernot Wagner, an economist at the Environmental Defense Fund and Co-author of «Climate Shock,» which focuses on why uncertainty in warming forecasts is no reason to relax, sent these thoughts:

For example, a storm embedded in a confluent large - scale flow (i.e. one whose streamlines tend to converge) will generally have less directional track forecast uncertainty, though the timing of the progress of the storm along its track may suffer.

However if the uncertainty is of the same order as the signal in the forecast (scenario if you will) then the meaning of the forecast is pretty much nil.

In comparing the track forecasts for Isaac with that for Katrina, he noted how much of what is called the «cone of uncertainty» — the wide area over which the track could range — had shrunk in comparing the forecasts seven years aparIn comparing the track forecasts for Isaac with that for Katrina, he noted how much of what is called the «cone of uncertainty» — the wide area over which the track could range — had shrunk in comparing the forecasts seven years aparin comparing the forecasts seven years apart.

Develop models and probabilistic forecasting tools to quantify uncertainties in the atmospheric drivers, surface characteristics, and soil properties that control the timing and extent of permafrost thaw in the next few decades and centuries.

Professor Curry has led debate in the science community about the process of reviewing climate change, including giving testimony before the US house subcommittee on environment this year, remarking on the many large uncertainties in forecasting future climate.

Limited visibility on the amount of capacity in upcoming auctions in some markets present a forecast uncertainty, the IEA adds.

While climate science can effectively inform us about the range of possible consequences of a warming world, there is a large amount of irresolvable uncertainty inherent in climate forecasting.

In fact, most uncertainties in the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etcIn fact, most uncertainties in the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etcin the alarmist pseudo-science are internal contradictions and consequences of its shoddy practices: cherry picking data, making conclusions based on statistically insignificant observations, declaring trends based on variations that are within error margins, relying on computer models that contradict principles of the information theory, forging forecasts for unreasonably long time periods, etc..

[20] This problem becomes particularly severe for forecasts of the weather about 10 days in advance, [21] particularly if model uncertainty is not accounted for in the forecast.

You have to remember that the 5 year forecast is derived from a large number of individual runs each with slightly different starting conditions matching the range of the observational uncertainty in the real starting conditions.

Initial condition uncertainty arises due to errors in the estimate of the starting conditions for the forecast, both due to limited observations of the atmosphere, and uncertainties involved in using indirect measurements, such as satellite data, to measure the state of atmospheric variables.

Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

Edward Epstein recognized in 1969 that the atmosphere could not be completely described with a single forecast run due to inherent uncertainty, and proposed a stochastic dynamic model that produced means and variances for the state of the atmosphere.

Since that time three or four years ago, there has been no comfortable way for the scientific community to raise the spectre of serious uncertainty about the forecasts of climatic disaster... It can no longer escape prime responsibility if it should turn out in the end that doing something in the name of mitigation of global warming is the costliest scientific mistake ever visited on humanity.

-LSB-...] Internationally known forecasting pioneer Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania and his colleague Kesten Green Monash University in Australia: «As shown in our analysis experts» forecasts have no validity in situations characterized by high complexity, high uncertainty, and poor feedback.

There is significant uncertainty in both of these forecasts.

My experience in working extensively with temperature measurements and temperature forecasting leads me to believe that our best estimates of global temperature anomalies based on surface measurements have a much larger degree of uncertainty than has been implied by most users of these estimates.