His experience in this regard informs his knowledge
of urbanization trends, particularly how they impact and apply to emerging markets.
As it had the same amount of warming, it likely had about the same amount
of urbanization trend, given that the stations were spread as worldwide as data availability allowed (all networks have sparser coverage in the tropics).
«The accuracy of the data and results was confirmed in a later paper -LSB-...] much
of the urbanization trend was likely due to the rapid economic development in China since the 1980s, after the period analysed in the 1990 paper http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/guardianstatement
Not exact matches
So
urbanization actually is definitely the
trend of China.
But relatively recent
trends —
urbanization, mass immigration, the rise
of big business — have found us more frequently living and working alongside strangers rather than neighbours; as Cain writes, «facing the question
of how to make a good impression on people to whom [we] had no civic or family ties.»
Facebook, Apple and other tech giants have gone against the
trend of urbanization by erecting massive, inward - looking campuses featuring all the amenities their employees can dream up.
Jonathan has led numerous research efforts on global economic
trends, including growth and productivity,
urbanization, affordable housing, energy and sustainability, e-commerce, and the economic impact
of the Internet, as well as on productivity growth and economic development in China and Asia.
This near - term drive for growth, coupled with longer - term
trends of increasing
urbanization and a growing middle class, will require greater and greater quantities
of the wood, metals and minerals and other goods and services that Canada has to offer.
There will be a leveling off or diminishing
of some aspects
of the basic, long - term multifold
trend, such as
urbanization.
Despite those efforts, the use
of wood fuels is rising due to population growth and emerging
urbanization trends, the researchers point out.
And they examined data from sources like the U.S. Census Bureau and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to look at various socio - ecological factors that have been posited as contributors to individualism, including prevalence
of infectious disease and disasters, rates
of urbanization, changes in secularism, and
trends in occupational status.
For example, he says, Africa is the last «holdout» in the historic
trend toward
urbanization, with most
of its people still living in rural areas.
Sun adds, «With the fast growth
of China's economy, and increasing
urbanization, this
trend is likely to continue in the next few decades.»
While a great deal
of research has explored the economic, political and environmental issues that will be affected by increasing
urbanization, far less has examined how this
trend has impacted China from a social standpoint.
The city which mimic's an architectural model
of a city or development is an impressive work that comments on our current
trend towards
urbanization.
While they acknowledge that this
trend in no way counterbalances the net
urbanization of Europe, it does point to a contemporary desire for bucolic escape on the part
of certain groups (I can only read «informed and emancipated» as wealthy and educated).
True,
urbanization has been a defining
trend of the Industrial Age, so on balance yes, that is what people mostly do now.
And Americans may not be flocking to cities as quickly as the rest
of the world, but the
trend still looks to be heading towards
urbanization.
Few weather stations on Earth are immune to this
trend: most places they set up stations will be subject to the relentless
urbanization of our part
of the planet.
Instead
of eliminating the
urbanization effects, these wrong - way corrections makes the urban warming
trends steeper.
The issue is, as it always has been, the contribution, if any,
of urbanization or landscape changes to the
trend.
If a substantial fraction
of all the weather stations from around the world have been affected by
urbanization bias, then this could have introduced an artificial warming
trend into the «global temperature
trend» estimates.
I would surmise that increasing
urbanization on the areas sloping up to the west from the station could be the primary cause
of the warming
trend and not the heat pump exchangers.
As a result, their «
urbanization bias - corrected» global temperature
trend estimates was pretty much the same as the estimates
of the other groups who didn't apply any
urbanization bias corrections (you can see this by looking back at Figure 1, at the start
of the essay).
Could that mean that all
of the warming
trend in the Buenos Aires record was
urbanization bias?
Therefore, much
of the strong «warming»
trend implied by the Buenos Aires record is probably just
urbanization bias.
One
of the groups using weather records to calculate global temperature
trends has developed a computer program which they believe has removed the
urbanization biases from their data.
AndThenTheresPhysics, I think John is referring to the claim in Jones et al., 1990 that the contribution
of urbanization bias to global temperature
trends is less than 0.05 °C / century.
In particular, it considers how climate change and
urbanization affect the scope and scale
of emergencies, as well as what these
trends mean for emergency preparedness and response.
Johnston is more skeptical
of the lasting potential
of the
trend, as he said he believes it is the result
of increased
urbanization and pricier land costs, which drive up home prices.
Also, Dr. Kevin Trenberth had written a comment (Trenberth, 2004 — abstract; Google Scholar access) criticising the Kalnay & Cai, 2003 study (Abstract; Google Scholar access) which suggested that nearly half
of the apparent warming
trends in the U.S. were probably due to
urbanization bias (or land use changes).
They questioned the reliability
of the National Climatic Data Center's homogenization adjustments, and suggested that a combination
of poor station exposure,
urbanization bias and unreliable homogenization adjustments had led to a spurious doubling
of U.S. mean temperature
trends over the period 1979 - 2008.
On Parker's unproven hypothesis that this
trend is an index
of urbanization increases, this would indicate a de-
urbanization in most
of the globe during the past 50 years.
Whether or not it covers the period «from 1950 to 2010» or a longer period, BEST shows that the net impact
of urbanization was a spurious cooling
trend of -0.019 C per decade.
Parker noted that Peterson found no impact
of urbanization in
trends between sites, when controlling for «elevation, latitude, time
of observation, and instrumentation...» Parker went on to say «One possible reason for this finding was that many «urban» observations are likely to be made in cool parks, to conform to standards for siting
of stations.»
In view
of the many local studies that show exactly the opposite
trend, it is very hard to imagine anything that could make increased
urbanization lead to cooling.
Indeed, a portion
of that small linear
trend difference might be due to human CO2 emissions; or, then again, it might be due to the vast
urbanization effect over the last 60 + years; or due to the large deforestation that's taken place; or, maybe it's entirely due to the serial fabrication
of global warming by the world's climate agencies; or it's even possible that the post-1950 warming was entirely a natural phenomenon - the same as the prior 64 - year period experience.
It is simply a potential hypothetical explication, made by someone else, and included in the literature background portion
of the introduction,
of previous work that had also found minimal impact
of urbanization on temperature
TRENDS.
The question seems not to be whether or not
urbanization causes warming (pretty obvious, based on all the data out there) but whether or not the UHI distortion has represented a significant part
of the recorded land surface warming since the record started in 1850 and whether or not this has significantly distorted the globally averaged
trend.
However,
urbanization bias is still a significant problem, which seems to have introduced an artificial warming
trend into current estimates
of U.S. temperature
trends.
This dramatic revision
of the estimated impact
of urbanization on temperatures in China does not change the global picture
of temperature
trends.
2009 saw major developments reflecting the implications
of the shift from poverty - driven deforestation to enterprise - driven deforestation, a
trend that continues to accelerate with
urbanization and abandonment
of government - sponsored colonization projects.
For example, the IPCC claims that less than 10 %
of the warming
trend over land was due to
urbanization.
The analysis
of 331 state weather stations associated a number
of factors with temperature
trends, including
urbanization, population, Pacific oceanic conditions and elevation.
It seemed to me that random effects methodology could be applied to see the impact on
trends of the various complicating factors — ratings category,
urbanization class, equipment class.
Another paper in Climate Change in 2007 stated: Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related
trend is an order
of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time - scale
trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999)... Thus, the global land warming
trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing
urbanization (Parker, 2006).
Still, prior to the satellite - based measurements they were the best proxy for global temperature and if used just to measure
trends they could have been a very good proxy if: · Measurements were taken from the same set
of global positions each year · Adjustments for creeping
urbanization, equipment upgrades and equipment movements were made honestly
Watts contends that if the global data were properly adjusted for
urbanization and station siting, and land use change issues were addressed, what would emerge is a cyclical pattern
of rises and falls with much less
of any background
trend.
Most futurists assume that this
trend will continue throughout the current century, and many environmentalists welcome the prospect
of urbanization because cities seem to impose lower environmental costs, per person, for a given standard
of living.
And, I know that you're aware
of work on the impact
of urbanization on temperature
trends in inflating instrumental warming measurements.