Retrospective reserving subtracts accumulated value of benefits from accumulated value
of valuation premiums as of a point in time.
Again, it's debatable how you might play these: Maybe you buy them simply because a lazy & uninformed mainstream media will probably keep recommending the likes of Overstock.com, AMD & NVIDIA as Bitcoin / blockchain plays, or sell them «cos there's far too much
of a valuation premium built in already (NVIDIA, for example, is also enjoying an AI - related tailwind — it now sports a 52 P / E)?
Not exact matches
Merger skeptics argue that today's
premium valuations make it a bad time for Gilead to be a biotech buyer: The recent M&A surge has driven up the prices
of companies investors see as potential Gilead targets — including Vertex (VRTX) and Bristol - Myers Squibb (BMY).
Thus for denying shareholders a
premium valuation that would have been higher than the entire industry, and the opportunity to have a stake in a new company with incredible earnings potential, Coppola now tops Cramer's Wall
of Shame.
Our long - term forecasts are based on our assessment
of current
valuation measures, economic growth and inflation prospects, as well as historical risk
premiums.
My general sense is that stock
valuations are reasonable, though not deeply undervalued, and risk
premiums are abating given that the economy appears to have pulled back from the brink
of large - scale bank failures.
One is legitimate — every year in which short - term interest rates are expected to be zero instead
of say, a typical 4 %, should reasonably warrant a 4 %
valuation premium in stocks and bonds, over and above run -
of - the - mill historical norms (one can demonstrate this using any discounted cash flow approach).
Even if we expected 4 more years
of zero interest rates, that expectation would only justify a
premium of about 16 % over reliable historical
valuation norms.
In fact, he estimated a
valuation of $ 41 billion, or a 15 percent
premium to Target's value.
To get more specific, our dynamic DCF model shows that even if we assume OCLR's NOPAT declines by 50 % in 2018 and takes a decade to get back to current levels, the stock has a present value
of $ 7.60 / share, a 12 %
premium to the current
valuation.
These forces result in the tech sector exhibiting a strong secular growth profile and in our view, help justify a
premium in the form
of higher
valuations.
Second, if one wishes to argue that today's low interest rates will «justify» permanently extreme
valuations even 10 - 12 years from today, it's useful to remember that if interest rates are low because the growth rate
of cash flows is also low, then no
valuation premium is «justified» at all.
The Market Climate remains on a Crash Warning, characterized by extremely unfavorable
valuations, unfavorable trend uniformity, and hostile yield trends, particularly long - term bond yields and various measures
of risk
premiums.
«We see Apple as a provider
of premium priced electronics, a lucrative market but one that may not sustain its current market
valuation of $ 473 billion in the years ahead,» Colin Gillis, an analyst at BGC Financial, wrote in a note to clients this week.
Similarly, the mismatch in market hours between ETF shares and those
of underlying markets makes intraday
valuation more difficult and produces noisy
premiums / discounts.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level
of 4 %), one can «justify» equity
valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock returns.
While the current
premium on U.S. stocks makes some sense in the context
of low inflation and low rates,
valuations look stretched relative to stocks in the rest
of the world.
I don't see any company wanting to give CALD much
of a
premium to its current
valuation, but acquisitions are not always rational, so I can't rule out the possibility.
Maintaining the BTC
valuation premium may eventually become challenging in view
of this, but obviously that remains open to question — the first mover advantage and name recognition effect were so far sufficient for BTC to maintain its top spot.
The stock would warrant a
premium valuation (above the trend line) by virtue
of management's focus on ROIC and its ability to communicate that focus to investors.
This focus on an asset's earnings power and, in particular, the ability
of assets to earn returns in excess
of desired returns is the essence
of my intrinsic
valuation, which is based on Steven Penman's residual income model.1 The basic idea is that if a company is not earning a return in excess
of our desired return, that company, like the bank account example above, deserves no
premium to book value.
... formal asset
valuation models (extrapolations
of historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates
of the future equity risk
premium.
Our analysis
of valuation considers not only earnings, but free cash flows, dividends, book values, revenues, profit margins, interest rates, inflation, risk
premiums and other factors.
It is mainly a history
of low yields being pressured higher -
of thin risk
premiums being pressured to widen -
of rich
valuations being pressured lower.
Both trade at
premium valuations, reflections
of their strength today and also their potential in the future.
«Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy» (SACEVS) finds that investors may be able to exploit relative
valuation of the term risk
premium, the credit (default) risk
premium and the equity risk
premium via exchange - traded funds (ETF).
These strategies each month allocate funds to the following asset class exchange - traded funds (ETF) according to
valuations of term, credit and equity risk
premiums, or to cash if no
premiums are undervalued:
Investors may be tempted to add to bond proxies and related defensive stocks as their
premium valuations to the rest
of the market have lessened.
That's created uncertainty, and uncertainty is the enemy
of premium valuations.
Its substantial and growing Net Operating Income will, when the time is right for the Port Authority to monetize all or part
of its ownership in the building, support a
premium, world - class
valuation.
It is appalling that such a
premium car does not have a basic feature, a feature found in almost any car in this day and age
of technology
of much lower
valuation.
When the liquidity
premium is high, the asset is said to be illiquid, and investors demand additional compensation for the added risk
of investing their assets over a longer period
of time since
valuations can fluctuate with market effects.
The two peaks on the chart are the two - tiered «glamour stock» markets
of the early 1970's and the late 1990's, where large companies commanded steep
valuation premiums.
Specifically, the All Asset strategies» recent strong performance (see Figure 1) may be attributable in large part to four fundamental drivers
of global capital market returns: the breakeven inflation rate (BEI), EM currency
valuations, EM - to - U.S. cyclically adjusted price / earnings (CAPE) ratios and the global value
premium.
Of course there are businesses that can justify premium - to - market valuations on the basis of their ability to incrementally deploy capital at high rates of return, but that subset of businesses is very, very smal
Of course there are businesses that can justify
premium - to - market
valuations on the basis
of their ability to incrementally deploy capital at high rates of return, but that subset of businesses is very, very smal
of their ability to incrementally deploy capital at high rates
of return, but that subset of businesses is very, very smal
of return, but that subset
of businesses is very, very smal
of businesses is very, very small.
By the end
of the day, that initial
valuation premium of $ 3.7 billion turned into a deficit
of $ 1.2 billion, and that was against a rising market.
E-Health is a health insurance broker, and over its existence hasn't done anything deserving
of a
premium valuation.
When everyone believes in the inevitability
of stocks, à la «Dow 36,000» (we'll get there by 2025 or so), equity
valuations are high, past equity performance has probably been great, and the future equity
premium is small — think 1929, 1972, August 1987 and February 2000.
Over that period, domestic stocks have consistently traded at a
premium to exporters (in other words, they have been more expensively valued), with an average PE
valuation premium of 15.1 %.
With charts like this, looking at relative
valuation, you can expect some «mean reversion» over time and you have to make a judgement about what you think is an appropriate level
of premium / discount, and in turn, what you think is an attractive level.
Valuation: The new British Airways award chart went into effect at the end
of April, dramatically increasing the mileage requirements for most
premium cabin redemptions, particularly on long - haul flights.
Similarly, the mismatch in market hours between ETF shares and those
of underlying markets makes intraday
valuation more difficult and produces noisy
premiums / discounts.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level
of 4 %), one can «justify» equity
valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock returns.
Even after some pretty disappointing results during the second half
of 2016, these strategies still trade at
premium valuations.
As a result, it's the relative
valuation between the two choices that matter because it's the relative risk -
premium spread that drives much
of investors decision making (whether they're conscious
of it or not).
Taking the current $ 64.0 mio
valuation, and a current annual $ 8.4 mio
premium, it's back
of the envelope easy to reach a $ 162.3 mio FV over a 4.6 yr LE, when using a 12 % IRR.
That
valuation excludes a change
of control
premium, which Bank
of America estimates should be between 20 % and 30 % over their estimate.
The TLIs
valuation reduces by about $ 1.3 mio to reflect 3 subsequent policy maturities, increases by $ 2.8 mio to reflect
premiums, and we then solve for an estimated $ 2.9 mio
of LE adjustments.
The level
of the
premium would depend on how much is allocated to equities and the
valuation level
of equities over that time frame.
As evidenced by the earnings and price correlated graph, Emerson Electric is a high - quality Dividend Champion that has a legacy
of the market placing a
premium valuation on its stock.