Figure 2: The decadal land surface temperature from the BEST average (black), compared to a linear combination
of volcanic sulfate emissions and the natural logarithm of CO2 (red).
«The annual and decadal land surface temperature from the BerkeleyEarth average, compared to a linear combination
of volcanic sulfate emissions and the natural logarithm of CO2.»
Time series for solar insolation (18), SOI (19), and the radiative forcing
of volcanic sulfates (20) are updated with values from sources that are used to generate the original dataset.
That same reference finds that the statistical estimates for the temperature effect
of volcanic sulfates and ENSO (and effects of ENSO on atmospheric CO2) are consistent with estimates derived from climate models and empirical analyses.
Not exact matches
In the 1970s, researchers discovered
volcanic sulfates in a most unlikely location: below the icecaps
of Greenland and Antarctica.
«In any case, the results
of our model study give a clear indication that the bipolar variability
of sulfate deposits must be taken into consideration if the traces
of large
volcanic eruptions are to be deduced from ice cores,» says Dr. Krüger, «Several research groups that deal with this issue have already contacted us to verify their data through our model results.»
To determine whether declining pollutants deserve credit for the recovery, the researchers used a 3D atmospheric model to separate the effects
of the chemicals from those
of weather, which can affect ozone loss through winds and temperature, and
volcanic eruptions, which deplete ozone by pumping
sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere.
Since the 1990s, scientists have been discussing using aircraft to inject aerosols, such as
sulfates, into the atmosphere as a form
of geoengineering to mimic
volcanic eruptions that sometimes cool the planet by casting shades
of particulate matter.
A third key hypothesis involves acidic aerosols released at
volcanic sites, such as acid fog, dispersed throughout the atmosphere, and interacting subsequently with the finer components
of soil as a source
of widespread hydrated iron -
sulfate salts.
Like the particles emitted during
volcanic eruptions,
sulfate aerosols cool the Earth by blocking a portion
of the sun's rays.
Recent inspection
of the
sulfate records from the European project for ice coring in Antarctica's dronning maud land (EDML) ice core reveals
sulfate peaks that have been correlated to presumed YTT
sulfate peaks in the North Greenland ice core project (NGRIP) and GISP2 ice cores; however, once again no
volcanic material has been identified (18).
An exceptional
sulfate spike in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) ice core record,
of 6 y duration, has been correlated to the YTT (16) despite an absence
of volcanic material.
Volcanoes can — and do — influence the global climate over time periods
of a few years but this is achieved through the injection
of sulfate aerosols into the high reaches
of the atmosphere during the very large
volcanic eruptions that occur sporadically each century.
Hydrogen
sulfate also occurs naturally during the breakdown
of organic matter in swamps and sewers; it is also present in
volcanic gases, natural gas, and some well waters.
My idea
of a thriller novel, with at least the plot potential of State Of Fear, has for years been a group of rogue scientists who drill down to near the magma of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots of sulfates in the atmospher
of a thriller novel, with at least the plot potential
of State Of Fear, has for years been a group of rogue scientists who drill down to near the magma of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots of sulfates in the atmospher
of State
Of Fear, has for years been a group of rogue scientists who drill down to near the magma of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots of sulfates in the atmospher
Of Fear, has for years been a group
of rogue scientists who drill down to near the magma of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots of sulfates in the atmospher
of rogue scientists who drill down to near the magma
of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots of sulfates in the atmospher
of a volcano on a remote Indonesian island and drop a nuclear bomb down there to break things loose and start a real
volcanic reaction — leaving us with lots
of sulfates in the atmospher
of sulfates in the atmosphere.
Even during the PETM, it took extended
volcanic eruptions on a massive scale that were extensive but not
of the kind to eject significant stratospheric
sulfates so as to cause cooling.
After a large
volcanic eruption, the layer
of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere gets thicker, and we see, in the historic record, that the Earth cools down in response.
Biba mentions one proposal
of this kind — injecting
sulfates into the stratosphere to mimic a
volcanic eruption.
In fact, the major effect
of significant
volcanic eruptions is cooling due to the
sulfate aerosols that they release (although in order to have a significant cooling effect, the eruption has to be large enough that it injects the aerosols into the stratosphere where they can stay around longer... and it apparently helps if the eruption is reasonably near to the equator).
Also,
volcanic eruptions such as that
of the Philippines» Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 can cool the planet for a few years by adding
sulfate particles into the stratosphere, reflecting solar radiation back to space.
Stott analyzed the response
of HadCM3 with different combinations
of forcings, varying greenhouse gases,
sulfate and ozone components, and
volcanic activity, and with three solar models, HS, LBB, and an update to LBB designated as Lean et al. (1995a).
This cooling influence occurs when large, explosive
volcanic eruptions inject
sulfate particles into the high reaches
of the atmosphere (the stratosphere).
Contribution
of volcanic eruptions: big
volcanic eruptions emit great quantities
of SO2 (sulfur dioxide) that form with water vapor
sulfate droplets that are lifted by the eruptive column to the stratosphere where they are carried by winds all over the world.
Volcanoes can — and do — influence the global climate over time periods
of a few years but this is achieved through the injection
of sulfate aerosols into the high reaches
of the atmosphere during the very large
volcanic eruptions that occur sporadically each century.
Short - term cyclical factors (ENSO, solar variability, etc.), noisy annual variation, and unpredictable factors like the precise amount
of sulfates we're going to emit or whether we're going to have any large
volcanic eruptions make predictions over very short time periods (like a decade) next to worthless.
To identify the effects
of human activity on temperature, we simulate the model (estimation sample 1960 — 1998) with post 1998 values
of solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates held at their 1998 level while allowing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions to evolve as observed.
Observed temperature (black line), the out -
of - sample forecast for global surface temperature driven by anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing (red line) and the out -
of - sample forecast for global surface temperature driven by natural variables (solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates)(green line).
Conversely, holding greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions at their 1998 values and allowing solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates to evolve as observed generates a forecast that is consistent with the observed pattern
of temperature change.
The 95 % confidence intervals in Figs. 2 and 3 represent uncertainty in the statistical estimates
of the regression model for observed paths
of forcings, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates.
But to quantify the influences (or «forcings» in climate jargon) even further, they considered three anthropogenic forcings — well - mixed greenhouse gases,
sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone — as well as two natural forcings — changes in solar irradiance and
volcanic aerosols — all
of which are likely to influence tropopause height.»
The concept largely focuses on the idea
of dispersing chemicals such as
sulfates high in the atmosphere so they could reflect sunlight in a manner that would mimic the effect
of volcanic eruption.
Climate engineering: To counter the effects
of heat - trapping greenhouse gases, some experts have proposed artificially cooling the planet by injecting
sulfates into the stratosphere, which would mimic the effects
of a major
volcanic eruption.