Because voters would know there would be a strong likelihood of a second ballot, the evidence shows that there is a wider
spread of voting intentions.
The problem is that, as a traditional
driver of voting intention, constitutional reform ranks behind just about every other measure you can think of - even more so in a recession.
Its standing in
polls of vote intentions for Scottish Parliament elections averaged just 16 %, while its reading on vote intentions for a Westminster election were, at 14 %, even slightly worse.
The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks / ScotCen Poll of Polls
of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.
The latest poll
of voting intentions for Thursday's election, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, is of particular interest for two reasons.
The poll by BVA
of voting intentions on Friday gave Hamon between 16 and 17 percent in the April 23 first round, behind far - right leader Marine Le Pen on 25 percent, independent centrist Emmanuel Macron on 21 - 22 percent and conservative Francois Fillon on 20 percent.
Like virtually all non-random voting systems, ranked choice voting (see Philipp's answer for a list of some alternative names) does have some structural weaknesses in which a voter with prior knowledge
of the voting intentions of others can influence the result in her preferred direction by taking actions other than sincerely enumerating her preferred choices in order.
What used to be the dividing line between British voters is now rendered useless in determining the results, as age takes over as the new key
predictor of voting intention in British politics.
No news
of any voting intention questions in the MSL poll, but it found that 54 % thought ministers had handled Northern Rock badly and 49 % of respondents wanted Alistair Darling to resign.
Last week a poll from Survation suggested that the huff and puff of the campaign, including not least two televised leader debates that took place either side of the Easter weekend, had not made much difference to the
balance of voting intentions for next month's Scottish Parliament election.
For all of these reasons, I believe that the percentage «satisfied» is a more direct
measure of voting intention than either the index or the trend, and hence the best predictor of the outcome.
An ICM poll for the Sunday
Telegraph of voting intentions in a general election put Labour on 22 points, 18 behind the Conservatives, who are on 40 points, and three behind the Liberal Democrats on 25.
In the first three waves of the BES we randomized the
placement of the vote intention question to be either at the start of the survey or at the end after all other questions.
5.12 pm: Boris Johnson is nine points ahead of Ken Livingstone — 44 to 35 — in a poll
of voting intentions ahead of the 2012 mayoral contest.
Hence in addition to the normal reports on new polls, I'm also going to re-introduce something I used to do back in 2004 — a monthly round
up of voting intention polls.
Obviously we can only speculate at this stage, but the similar
patterns of voting intention between the 2011 Scottish election and the upcoming general election suggest that what made the SNP successful in 2011 is working again.
The Mavens research is based on the hypothesis that online searches, for example of local candidates, are a strong
indicator of voting intention.
Unlike for Labour supporters, for whom opposing privatisation actually matters in
terms of voting intentions, in the main they really do not care.
Labour were ahead in voting intention throughout most of the last Parliament, but were behind on economic competence and leadership, which are normally seen as important
drivers of voting intention (the ultimate explanation of this apparent paradox was, of course, that the voting intention polls were wrong).
Clegg's hopes of gaining more than 100 seats were confirmed by a Harris poll
of voting intentions for the Daily Mail today, which put the Conservatives on 33 %, the Lib Dems on 32 %, and Labour in third place with 24 %.
In itself the results of the poll (the first
poll of voting intentions in Scotland that ICM has conducted for many years) are not particularly remarkable.
There was better news for Labour south of the border at 5 pm as a new ComRes poll
of voting intentions in Tory - held marginals put Labour 3 % ahead.
Last month Lord Ashcroft published polls
of voting intentions in 16 individual constituencies in Scotland that showed the SNP ahead in all but one, Glasgow NE, the seat with the largest Labour lead over the SNP anywhere in Scotland.
This morning's Times carried the result of the latest YouGov poll
of voting intentions in Scotland, while this evening Channel 4 News released further results from the same poll.
Until 2010, the electoral system hid the multi-party nature of British politics (smaller parties and independent candidates attracted 30 %
of voting intentions but gained very few seats).
Regular users of this site during the referendum will remember that one of its more popular features was a «Poll of Polls»
of voting intentions in the referendum.
The final two polls
of voting intentions in Scotland for the general election were released late last night.
After all these problems, it is really a remarkable achievement that the party obtained 11 %
of voting intentions in the YouGov poll referred to earlier.
In the latest YouGov poll, the Greens were ahead of the Lib Dems by 2 %, attracting 8 %
of voting intentions.
I've been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with
some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I've missed.
Polling
those of all voting intentions, David Miliband topped the survey with 21 % holding the view that he would be a better party leader, compared to Ed Miliband's 7 %.
It is polling as the third largest political force post-Brexit with 15 %
of voting intentions.
In Greece, Syriza has been around for longer, and now leads the opinion polls, attracting 30 %
of voting intentions.
ComRes have published a new poll
of voting intentions in LD - Con seats in the South West for ITV.
In terms
of voting intention, in YouGov's daily tracker Labour have maintained a steadyish five point lead throughout most of the year.
Also from Ipsos MORI was this curious poll
of voting intentions in the Police Commissioner elections.