Our analysis shows that wage growth, as estimated by our composite measure
of wage pressures, is beginning to accelerate; we also show that labor market indicators most closely correlated with wage growth, such as the quit rate, continue to improve.
More recently, wage growth has shown signs of stabilisation, with growth in the private sector wage price index unchanged for the past six quarters, while a broader measure
of wage pressures, the growth in average earnings per hour, has picked up of late.
These conditions increase the likelihood
of wage pressures building beyond what is factored into the inflation forecast.
The Reserve Bank of Australia said it saw signs
of wage pressures in the economy, setting the stage for a rate hike later this year, says Paul Bloxham of HSBC.
You may see inflation remain below target, you may see a lack
of wage pressures, and you could be in a relatively steady state like that for some time possibly.
NEW YORK, Feb 5 - The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Monday as the U.S. bond market selloff levelled off after the 10 - year yield hit a four - year peak on worries that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates faster to counter signs
of wage pressure.
Although most indicators
of wage pressure remained firm in the September quarter, there was only limited evidence to suggest that these pressures were gaining economy - wide momentum.
Based on data from the European Social Survey for Austria, Belgium, France, Norway, and Switzerland, three different sets of explanations are tested: (1) hypotheses stressing economic determinants, that is, the fear
of wage pressure and competition over welfare benefits; (2) hypotheses emphasizing cultural determinants, that is, the perception of immigration as a threat to national identity; and (3) hypotheses focusing on social alienation, that is, dissatisfaction with the way the country's democracy works and the nonintegration into intermediary networks (trade unions).
Not exact matches
One
of my favorite statistics is pointed out by Jason Benderly, who suggests that households headed by a male adult with spouse present is a sector whose unemployment rate can be most consistently used to determine when
wage pressure is beginning to rise.
We should not fear but rather embrace upward
wage pressures as a positive development that raises the standard
of living for Canadians.
«At a time when persistent high unemployment is putting enormous downward
pressure on wages, such a minimum -
wage increase would provide a much - needed boost to the earnings
of low -
wage workers,» EPI noted in a joint letter addressed to House and Senate leadership.
Vanguard says investors should pay more attention to low unemployment rates than GDP growth at this stage
of the cycle for prospects
of either higher spending for capital expenditures or
wage pressures.
Foxconn, meanwhile, has responded to the issue by hiking employee pay by 30 %, which the CEOs see as both an appropriate response to the company's mistreatment
of its workers, and a sign
of further
wage pressures in China.
The Fed's traditional models dictate that falling unemployment will quickly generate upward
wage pressures and increase the pricing power
of firms.
The new health care legislation has added an additional layer
of complexity, so what will imposing
pressure to raise the hourly minimum
wage bring?
In a legal filing on Monday, ETP asked a judge to grant the permit, saying that the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers, in its decision, responded to «political
pressure and an escalating campaign
of violence and disorder
waged by protesters» against the project.
But it has shown several years
of strong
wage growth, and demand for qualified candidates is growing, which should put upward
pressure on salaries in the coming years.
The stock market opened way down, continuing last Friday's selloff, though it has climbed back since the open — implying the return
of volatility — as skittish investors continue to fear the sequence I describe in this AM's WaPo: tight labor market,
wage pressures, higher interest rates, inflation, lower profit margins.
Despite heavy spending by a handful
of top universities for the most talented, grant - winning researchers, most schools aren't seeing big
wage pressures, largely because teaching jobs are in high demand.
Even that doesn't adequately describe a bill that would end the Diversity Lottery, effectively eliminating any diversity, expand exploited labor instead
of just expanding immigration, and continue to subject certain sectors
of the economy to downward
wage pressure (specifically STEM or IT), ignoring the cumulative ripple effect on every sector's
wage.
The slowdown in job growth and the absence
of any significant
wage pressure could strengthen the arguments
of those who see little risk in keeping borrowing costs exceptionally low and waiting not just for more encouraging data but also for unruly markets to settle down.
When critics like Brian Riedl, the campaign economist for the presidential campaigns
of Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio, fret that offering everyone a good job will lead to «
pressure to introduce a higher
wage or certain benefits that the private sector doesn't offer,» proponents say: Yeah, it will; that's exactly the point.
Core inflation remains a steady bit less than 2 %, and wages were thus climbing only.5 % on their own power
of traditional
wage pressure.
From my perspective, that look would tell them several things: 1) the U.S. economy is in recession, 2) the combination
of weak producer prices and rising
wage and benefits costs means that profit margins continue to be under
pressure.
That said, there are
wage and inflationary
pressures slowly building in pockets
of the labor market.
We have seen in our own case how liberalisation
of financial markets has led to
pressures to liberalise product markets (through ongoing tariff reductions and other forms), to bring more competition in the provision
of infrastructures (such as transport, communications and power generation), and to free up the labour market (through, for example, enterprise - based
wage bargaining).
However, given the weakness in the bargaining power
of so many in the workforce, along with some anxiety about price
pressures from
wage - push inflation, such evidence must be scrutinized.
Pockets
of weakness persist for some less advantaged groups and in some parts
of the country, a point Chair Yellen herself recently made, and even nationally, there's not all that much
wage pressure.
If the Fed were to continue hiking rates based on the current low rate
of productivity growth for fear that inflation would accelerate, that would tend to keep productivity growth permanently depressed by preventing
wage pressures from pushing businesses to investment in productivity boosting technologies.
In that sense, the Fed has the potential to make a huge structural difference in the economic lives
of blacks and other minorities by heavily weighting the full employment part
of the their mandate relative to the inflation part, especially since there's still considerable slack in the job market, with lower -
wage, minority workers facing the brunt
of it, and — importantly — little evidence
of inflationary
pressure (if anything, the Fed has missed their inflation target on the low side for a few years running now).
Additionally, while average hourly earnings (AHE) still appeared sluggish in April's payroll report, there are other indicators
of growing
wage pressure.
A slowly rising rate cycle in the face
of full employment and modest
wage pressure isn't the worst environment for fixed income.
Companies are still very focused on currency trends that are impacting their business as well as on margin
pressures — whether it's cost inflation through
wage growth or price deflation and the compressing
of margins.
The stronger yen has been threatening weaker profits for exporters, leading to downward
pressure on
wage negotiations typically conducted in spring ahead
of the new fiscal year starting in April.
Also, while labor markets were described as tight, the majority
of Districts reported only modest - to - moderate
wage pressures.
Because
of that,
wage pressures should be exploding right now.
Given these conditions, a key issue for the Australian economy will be the extent to which the ongoing growth
of demand might give rise to capacity constraints and, consequently, upward
pressure on
wage and price inflation.
It is possible, against a background
of increasing inflation and a strengthening labour market, that the survey is signalling some pick - up in underlying
wage pressures, but at this stage the extent
of any such pick - up is difficult to assess.
The pick - up in the WCI data in the second half
of 2003 partly reflected the spreading out
of increases in
wage pressures to a broader range
of industries, after having been concentrated in public - sector and related industries earlier in the year (Table 17).
The jobs data will be scrutinized closely for more clues about
wage pressures and signs
of inflation.
CITI: Given continued soft inflation readings, average hourly earnings (AHE) remains the focus
of the payrolls report as markets look for evidence that
wage pressures are building.
Also, the need for interest rates to rise will be lessened to the extent that inflation expectations remain well anchored and
wage pressures in stronger parts
of the economy do not spill over to other parts.
An influx
of 50,000 Amazon workers could force more lower -
wage and middle - income workers from the city and put more
pressure on housing prices and congested roadways.
In a scenario with a reasonably benign world environment, these factors could see a strengthening
of demand
pressures and hence upward
pressure on
wage and price inflation.
As I sifted through the Beige Book to see which areas
of the economy were posting upward
wage pressures and growing skilled labour shortages I could see a large swath — Technology, Construction, Transportation Services, Restaurants, Durable Goods Manufacturing.
The
pressure on profitability reflects a combination
of rising
wage costs and flat selling prices, which continue to be constrained in many parts
of the manufacturing sector by strong international competition.
While overall
wage costs remain contained at present, despite
pressures in particular sectors, ongoing strength in demand would pose an increasing risk
of acceleration
of costs over time.
Labour markets are showing increasing evidence
of an easing in
wage pressures, and recent declines in business confidence may prompt a tougher stance by businesses in
wage negotiations.
Consequently, there may be greater labour cost
pressures than are evident in narrower official
wage measures which do not capture these forms
of payment.
But what they really want to see is increase in
wage pressures and increase in growth and we started to see that, some
of it is in relation to the job or to the tax reform.