«One of the major modes of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area
of warm sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.
The periods of intense hurricanes uncovered by the new research were driven in part by intervals
of warm sea surface temperatures that previous research has shown occurred during these time periods, according to the new study.
Landsea said that NOAA's seasonal outlooks focused on the other pieces of the puzzle that argued in favor of an above average to average season, namely the absence of El Nino and the presence
of warm sea surface temperatures.
We now have the first results for our Climatological simulations, investigating the influence of removing the «blob»
of warm sea surface temperatures off the western US coast.
Fig. 2 shows predictions with a simple model that predicts the number of tropical cyclones (NTC and n) in the North Atlantic based on the area
of warm sea surface (A) and the NINO3.4 index.
Not exact matches
Warm sea surface temperature anomalies persist off to W and SW
of San Diego, but are smaller than in previous weeks over the past month.
This cycle coincides with the natural rise and fall
of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which fluctuate roughly 0.2 degree Celsius every 60 years as
warm currents shift.
Higher
sea surface temperatures led to a huge patch
of warm water, dubbed «The Blob,» that appeared in the northern Pacific Ocean more than two years ago.
The finding surprised the University
of Arizona - led research team, because the sparse instrumental records for
sea surface temperature for that part
of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean did not show
warming.
SEAS researchers suggest that early Mars may have been
warmed intermittently by a powerful greenhouse effect, possibly explaining water on the planet's
surface billions
of years ago.
You need
warm sea -
surface temperatures, an environment
of low wind shear, high humidity — and those are just a few
of the conditions.
«We expected the storm would definitely get stronger because
of much
warmer sea surface temperature,» Lau said.
First,
sea -
surface temperatures in the Gulf
of Mexico have been higher than normal in the past couple
of months, due to global
warming, which means the air that flowed north would have been
warmer to start with.
The research, an analysis
of sea salt sodium levels in mountain ice cores, finds that
warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have intensified the Aleutian Low pressure system that drives storm activity in the North Pacific.
Scientists define them as periods when the
sea surface in a given area
of the ocean gets unusually
warm for at least five days in a row.
So this effect could either be the result
of natural variability in Earth's climate, or yet another effect
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases like water vapor trapping more heat and thus
warming sea -
surface temperatures.
Studies
of historical records in India suggest that reduced monsoon rainfall in central India has occurred when the
sea surface temperatures in specific regions
of the Pacific Ocean were
warmer than normal.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA
sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate
of global
warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen years
of the 21st century.
Independent measurements
of sea surface temperatures in the last two decades support a recent government analysis that found an increase in
sea surface warming, according to a new study in the 4 January issue
of the journal Science Advances.
The future
of the currents, whether slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect on regional weather patterns — from colder winters in Europe to a much
warmer Caribbean (and hence
warmer sea surface temperatures to feed hurricanes).
The unfavorable changes in the plankton ecosystem parallel a
warming of the
sea surface, Beaugrand says.
warming of the
sea surface in the equatorial Pacific is associated with a vast fluctuation in atmospheric pressure.
«With
warmer sea surface temperatures beneath the cloud, the coalescence process that produces precipitation becomes more efficient,» team member Richard S. Lindsen
of M.I.T. explains.
Analyzing data collected over a 20 - month period, scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight center in Greenbelt, Md., and the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology found that the number
of cirrus clouds above the Pacific Ocean declines with
warmer sea surface temperatures.
At the same time, the El Niño event brought
warmer sea -
surface temperatures, which have been shown to correlate with outbreaks
of mosquito - transmitted diseases.
Because water expands as it
warms, that heat also meant that
sea surface heights were record high, measuring about 2.75 inches higher than at the beginning
of the satellite altimeter record in 1993.
A
warm bias in
sea surface temperature in most global climate models is due to a misrepresentation
of the coastal separation position
of the Gulf Stream, which extends too far north
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
One study, led by Chris Funk
of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University
of California, Santa Barbara's Climate Hazard Group, looked at long - term
warming of the
sea surface in the North Pacific.
A second study, led by Hailan Wang
of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, used different model simulations and came to a similar conclusion: While a
warming sea surface did make it more likely that a high - pressure ridge could form, the signal was not strong enough to explain its extreme nature.
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño event, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years where the
surface water
of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
warms, has had any impact on the Arctic
sea ice minimum extent.
At the same time as the
surface is cooling, the deeper ocean is
warming, which has already accelerated the decline
of glaciers in the Amundsen
Sea Embayment.»
Hurricanes are powered by energy pulled out
of warm seawater, so
sea surface temperature data collected by satellites is fed into forecast models to estimate their intensity.
Kevin Trenbeth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the study didn't account for changes in
sea surface temperatures, which are the main drivers
of changes in the position
of the rain belts (as is seen during an El Nino event, when Pacific
warming pushes the subtropical jet over the Western U.S. southward).
«Cold, deep water from this little area
of the Nordic
seas, less than 1 %
of the global ocean, travels the entire planet and returns as
warm surface water.
Records
of sea surface temperature from oceanic sediment cores, for example, show that the magnitude
of warming following several previous glaciations are well - correlated (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html).
According to their observations,
sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic can be up to 1.5 °C
warmer in the Gulf Stream region during the positive phase
of the AMO compared to the negative, colder phase.
When the AMO is in its positive phase and the
sea surface temperatures are
warmer, the study has shown that the main effect in winter is to promote the negative phase
of the NAO which leads to «blocking» episodes over the North Atlantic sector, allowing cold weather systems to exist over the eastern US and Europe.
The study examined 27 years worth
of satellite data for
sea surface temperatures, previous coral bleaching events, and studied how corals responded to different seawater
warming conditions.
The study marks the first time that human influence on the climate has been demonstrated in the water cycle, and outside the bounds
of typical physical responses such as
warming deep ocean and
sea surface temperatures or diminishing
sea ice and snow cover extent.
The study stops short
of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic
sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like
warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
In late 2010 and early 2011, the continent Down Under received about twice its normal complement
of rain, thanks in large part to unusually
warm sea -
surface temperatures just north
of Australia and a particularly strong La Niña — in essence, combining a source
of warm humid air with the weather patterns that steered the moisture over the continent where it condensed and fell as precipitation.
Complementary analyses
of the
surface mass balance
of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise
sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total
of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate
of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate
of sea level rise to the observed
warming.
The CPC officially considers it an event when the
sea surface temperatures in a key region
of the ocean reach at least 0.5 °C, or about 1 °F,
warmer than average.
Understanding how layers
of air insulate the
surface of glaciers, for example, is vital to making accurate estimates
of how fast they will melt — and
sea levels will rise — as the Earth
warms under its blanket
of greenhouse gases.
When
sea surface temperatures in that area
warms, moisture - bearing winds shift northward, said Katia Fernandes
of Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
The updated model predicted
sea -
surface warming of up to two degrees Celsius because
of light absorption.
The results, presented here at the AAAS annual meeting on 14 February, showed that when the
sea surface warmed off the coast
of Peru in 1997 - 98, during El Niño, there was a marked increase in rates
of cholera infection in Lima and nearby cities.
This region has experienced
sea surface warming of as much as 1 °C over fifty years.
Combining the two techniques showed that deep -
sea creatures dealt with a
warmer climate long before their
surface brethren did, they report in the online edition
of Science.
With higher levels
of carbon dioxide and higher average temperatures, the oceans»
surface waters
warm and
sea ice disappears, and the marine world will see increased stratification, intense nutrient trapping in the deep Southern Ocean (also known as the Antarctic Ocean) and nutrition starvation in the other oceans.