There are already several decades
of warming in the pipeline.
In the latter case that would indicate that we have a whole lot
of warming in the pipeline from the raised levels that we've generated at the present time!
Barry, will the recent Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift mask some (or a lot)
of the warming in the pipeline?.
Not exact matches
For instance, when Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne emerged from a January meeting with Alberta's Rachel Notley to say
warm, fuzzy things about Alberta's new climate strategy and the quest for
pipelines, the prime minister quickly praised their efforts from Switzerland, where he was attending the World Economic Forum: «I am very much
in the camp
of both premiers, Wynne and Notley, who demonstrated that Canada can and should work together on economic issues for all
of us.»
In light
of this fact, will stopping the
pipeline decrease global
warming, or just make other countries richer and more powerful, and Canada poorer and weaker?
The World Energy Outlook 2016, released last week, is just one among an increasing line
of studies showing how nations need to slow and, ultimately, phase out investment
in new fossil fuel supply infrastructure — from oil fields and
pipelines to coal mines — if they are serious about keeping
warming to 2C or less.
This is much less than the current «best estimate»
of about 3 deg.C, and would imply that there is * not * any unfelt
warming «still
in the
pipeline» from greenhouse gases we've already emitted.
Do you mean to imply that the subsequent decrease
of CO2
in («so absent any human emissions, there would be a net decrease
of CO2») would cancel the temperature rise that would otherwise result from the
warming still
in the
pipeline so that M & W's «zero emission» plot would immediately go flat?
The Kia Ceed at this point then is hardly an evo - centric car, but then as opposed to the influx
of compact SUVs, and with the possibility
of a
warmer future offering
in the
pipeline, we'll take one
of these over a dull compact SUV any day.
If we have had 1C
of warming (giss) since pre-industrial and human made aerosols are masking between 0.5 and 1.1 (Samset et al) and there is
warming «
in the
pipeline» as well — has the possibility
of a 1.5 C target already passed?
Re; # 36: Raypierre says: «except to say that over a time scale
of «a hundred years», some heat does mix down to a depth
of around 300m, which is why we have «committed
warming»
in the
pipeline»
On the overarching question
of «solving» the climate problem, I'm sure Joe would agree that global
warming is inevitably going to be, at best, managed — not «fixed» — given the trajectories for emissions
in a world inexorably headed toward roughly nine billion people seeking energy - enabled lives and with substantial
warming already
in the
pipeline, according to a heap
of research.
I don't know how to give a simple few - line answer to that question, except to say that over a time scale
of a hundred years, some heat does mix down to a depth
of around 300m, which is why we have «committed
warming»
in the
pipeline.
If we knew ocean heat uptake as well as we know atmospheric temperature change, then we could pin down fairly well the radiative imbalance at the top
of the atmosphere, which would give us a fair indication
of how much
warming is «
in the
pipeline» given current greenhouse gas concentrations.
Yet deleterious effects
of warming are apparent (IPCC 2007), even though only about half
of the
warming due to gases now
in the air has appeared, the remainder still «
in the
pipeline» due to the inertia
of the climate system (Hansen et al 2011).
Curry seems confused on «
warming in the
pipeline» since this comes about from stabilization
of forcing which has not occurred.
Also, the idea is to keep
warming below +1.5 ºC even with the current energy imbalance (
warming in the
pipeline) and reductions
in aerosols that accompany emissions reductions (though Hansen says the impact
of aerosols from fossil fuels was overstated and other manmade aerosols seem to dominate).
The reason why there is «
warming in the
pipeline» is because there is a significant imbalance
in radiation at the top
of the atmosphere.
To better understand why it is so important to stop the Keystone XL
pipeline and why tens
of thousands rallied
in DC on Sunday and why activists participated
in acts
of civil disobedience, you must understand the math
of global
warming.
That may undo some
of the
warming already done and likewise reduce the amount
in the
pipeline (since it will reduce before it appears).
The current energy imbalance at the surface (as demonstrated by the increasing heat content
of the oceans) implies there is at least a further 0.5 deg C surface
warming in the «
pipeline».
There's still plenty
of global
warming and centuries
of coastal retreats
in the
pipeline, so this is hardly a «benign» situation, as some have cast it.
This imbalance is really an important quantity — estimates
of how much
warming is
in the «
pipeline», the size
of the aerosol cooling effect etc. all depend on knowing what this number is.
But aren't these way too low, since LOTI shows we are — as
of 2017 — already around 0.95 C
warmer than the 1951 - 1980 average, and there is more
warming «
in the
pipeline» because
of the time lag, and another (estimated) 0.5 C
warming when the anthropogenic aerosols dimming effect is removed?
But,
of course, CO2 is not about to stop rising tomorrow or any time soon, so it's not just the
warming «
in the
pipeline» that we have to worry about.
Another 0.5 K
of warming is already «
in the
pipeline» due to ocean heat storage no matter what we do.
So the
pipeline itself is really just a skirmish
in the battle to protect climate, and if the
pipeline gets built despite Bill McKibben's dedicated army
of protesters, that does not mean
in and
of itself that it's «game over» for holding
warming to 2C.
It is also inferred that the planet is now out
of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W / m2 and that additional global
warming of about 0.5 °C is already «
in the
pipeline».
It is the inertia
of societal infrastructure, the carbon cycle and the climate that implies that at any point there is a significant
warming that is already «
in the
pipeline» (and thus very difficult to avoid).
But more
warming is already «
in - the -
pipeline,» delayed only by the great inertia
of the world ocean.
We can now argue about whether the GH
warming has reached «equilibrium» over the past 150 years or whether there is still some GH
warming «hidden
in the
pipeline», but IMO that is like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head
of a pin.
In particular,
pipeline opponents are angry that the review panel is not hearing evidence about emissions from the Alberta oil sands and the greater issue
of global
warming.
The fate
of the controversial Keystone XL
pipeline, he suggested, would be determined by whether or not it would contribute to global
warming through a net increase
in greenhouse gases — or not.
IPCC (AR4) has figured that 0.6 C
of warming is still «
in the
pipeline».
To determine what «unrealized»
warming is
in the
pipeline you would have to know what the normal forcing «it» should receive plus the amount
of additional forcing we have provided.
I was referring to the «
pipeline» paper, which he co-authored
in 2005,
in which the authors postulate that half
of the
warming since 1880 was «still
in the
pipeline».
Part
of problem is that even with current levels
of emissions, the inertia
of the climate system means that not all
of the
warming those emissions will cause has happened yet — a certain amount is «
in the
pipeline» and will only rear its head
in the future, because the ocean absorbs some
of the heat, delaying the inherent atmospheric
warming for decades to centuries.
The confluence
of the twin issues
of Native American respect for the land and modern environmentalists» alarm over global
warming has met
in resistance to a North Dakota oil
pipeline, observed Ann Wright.
Police arrested more than 140 Native American and environmental protesters challenging an oil
pipeline near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation
in North Dakota, a project touching the raw nerves
of water and global
warming, reports Dennis J Bernstein.
Short
of a complete cessation
of emissions today, there is no foreseeable way to avoid the bulk
of the
warming «
in the
pipeline.»
As you said
in your presentation, a substantial fraction
of the
warming from greenhouse gases still sits
in the
pipeline or is compensated by aerosols.
«
warming in the
pipeline» usually assumes constant concentrations, not zero emissions (though if CO2 emissions were dropped to zero tomorrow, and all other emissions were held constant, I'd probably expect a little bit
of warming before it turned over and started dropping) 2) Don't forget aerosols: they are following the Level 1 scenario from Wigley et al. 2009, and may actually dominate short - term temperature trends.
in regard to the idea
of «
warming in the
pipeline».
However, given that the CAGW position doesn't rest on specific numbers, but is instead an unorganized collection
of anecdotal evidence, coupled with heavily - tweaked computer models, unfounded assumptions about positive feedbacks, and a healthy imagination about possible future disasters, a lower
warming number for the 20th century will simply be brushed over with claims about aerosols being stronger than previously thought, more
warming still waiting
in the «
pipeline» or similar ad hoc «explanations» that keep the overall story alive.
51 Fig. 20 - 14, p. 481 Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal) Shift from coal to natural gas Improve energy efficiency Shift to renewable energy resources Transfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countries Reduce deforestation Use more sustainable agriculture and forestry Limit urban sprawl Reduce poverty Slow population growth Remove CO 2 from smoke stack and vehicle emissions Store (sequester) CO2 by planting trees Sequester CO 2 deep underground Sequester CO 2
in soil by using no - till cultivation and taking cropland out
of production Sequester CO 2
in the deep ocean Repair leaky natural gas
pipelines and facilities Use animal feeds that reduce CH 4 emissions by belching cows Solutions Global
Warming PreventionCleanup
Alarmists, embarrassed by the earth's refusal to
warm as their models predict, have concocted all sorts
of scary stories about «
warming in the
pipeline,» etc..
«With some level
of warming and sea level rise already
in the
pipeline no matter what we do, we won't see a reduction
in impacts or even a sudden levelling - off — impacts are projected to increase at the same rate
in all scenarios for the next couple
of decades or so, and after that they merely increase more slowly
in the deep emissions cuts scenarios,» Betts told Mongabay.
Among other things, the author [
of the Economist's report] hopelessly confuses transient
warming (the
warming observed at any particularly time) with committed
warming (the total
warming that you've committed to, which includes
warming in the
pipeline due to historical carbon emissions).
I should also point out that there is a difference between a projection and a prediction, but given the short time scales here and the amount
of warming «
in the
pipeline» already it's probably not germane
in this case.
This eventual release
of buried gases and heat from the oceans is sometimes called the «
warming in the
pipeline» or «
warming commitment» that people will eventually have to contend with, Romanou said.