However, a robust attribution
of this warming slowdown has not been achievable up to now.
They wanted to do another paper wherein they could refute my concept
of warming slowdown by using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and linear regression to obtain trends.
The debate over the possible existence
of a warming slowdown has sparked fierce scientific controversy over the past two decades.
Obviously Professor Mann, who very recently attacked the whole notion
of a warming slowdown, had second thoughts.
Not exact matches
While it is still possible that other factors, such as heat storage in other oceans or an increase in aerosols, have led to cooling at the Earth's surface, this research is yet another piece
of evidence that strongly points to the Pacific Ocean as the reason behind a
slowdown in
warming.
NOAA has been the target
of congressional scrutiny from Rep. Lamar Smith (R - Texas), who has launched an inquiry into a 2015 paper in Science prepared by NOAA researchers that disputed the existence
of a recent
slowdown in the rate
of global
warming.
«It is often presumed that the cooler North Atlantic will quickly lead to cooling in Europe, or at least a
slowdown in its rate
of warming,» says Ayako Yamamoto, a PhD student in McGill's department
of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and lead author
of the study.
The finding challenges previous arguments that a hot spot north
of Cape Hatteras over the past few decades was due to a
slowdown of circulation in the North Atlantic, which is itself due to global
warming.
The results show that even though there has been a
slowdown in the
warming of the global average temperatures on the surface
of Earth, the
warming has continued strongly throughout the troposphere except for a very thin layer at around 14 - 15 km above the surface
of Earth where it has
warmed slightly less.
Some climate change deniers have taken encouragement from the pause, saying they show
warming predictions are flawed, but Mann, a co-author on the study, notes that «there have been various explanations for why [the
slowdown is happening], none
of which involve climate models being fundamentally wrong.»
The recent
slowdown in global
warming has brought into question the reliability
of climate model projections
of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this
slowdown is the result
of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.
One
of the biggest lingering issues in the global
warming slowdown is the full impact
of the natural temperature cycles
of Earth's oceans.
«What this study addresses is what's better described as a false pause, or
slowdown,» rather than a hiatus in
warming, says climate scientist Michael Mann
of Pennsylvania State University, University Park.
«Although the Earth has continued to
warm during the temporary
slowdown since around 2000, the reduced rate
of warming in that period may have lulled us into a false sense
of security.
Statistical analysis
of average global temperatures between 1998 and 2013 shows that the
slowdown in global
warming during this period is consistent with natural variations in temperature, according to research by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.
Assessment analysis confronts complex issues, ranging from government regulations and corruption to the ethics
of publicity, including how to inform media
of something like the global
warming slowdown, which may not have actually happened.
Your analysis
of talk
of a
slowdown in global
warming (7 December, p 34) misses what seems an obvious factor...
There is some speculation that global
warming could, via a shutdown or
slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser
warming, in that region.
«Such a
slowdown is consistent with the projected effects
of anthropogenic climate change, where
warming and freshening
of the surface ocean from melting ice caps leads to weaker overturning circulation,» DeVries explained.
The global
warming hiatus — a decade - plus
slowdown in
warming — could be chalked up to some buoys, a few extra years
of data and a couple buckets
of seawater.
So let's call it what it really is: a
slowdown, not a disappearance
of global
warming.
«There is no
slowdown in global
warming,» Russell Vose, the head
of the climate science division at the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), said.
A cryptic chemical weather log kept by Tarawa Atoll's stony coral in the tropical Pacific archipelago has been cracked, helping scientists explain a century
of peaks and troughs in global
warming — and inflaming fears that a speedup will follow the recent
slowdown.
The growing body
of scientific evidence indicates that this negative phase has played a heavy role in driving an approximately 15 - year old
slowdown in worldwide surface
warming.
Peter Stott, the head
of climate monitoring at the U.K. Met Office, agreed, noting in an email that, «The
slowdown hasn't gone away, however, the results
of this study still show the
warming trend over the past 15 years has been slower than previous 15 year periods.
An analysis using updated global surface temperature data disputes the existence
of a 21st century global
warming slowdown described in studies including the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment.
According to these and other results, the authors suggest the
warming slowdown was an illusion, an artifact
of earlier analyses.
The research, published last June in the journal Science, concluded that an improved record
of surface temperatures no longer shows evidence
of a
slowdown in global
warming.
If this rapid
warming continues, it could mean the end
of the so - called
slowdown — the period over the past decade or so when global surface temperatures increased less rapidly than before.
All this may lead to the end
of the so - called
slowdown in global
warming, although it's too soon to be sure.
Rep. Lamar Smith (R - Texas), chairman
of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, has been seeking documents regarding research that seemed to debunk the notion
of a global
warming slowdown or pause.
I say «may» because research that tries to take gaps in measurement into account (particularly in the fast
warming Arctic) or that takes into account temporary phenonomena (like volcanoes, solar variability, etc) show that there has barely been any
slowdown in this one aspect
of climate change.
«We detected a specific pattern
of ocean cooling south
of Greenland and unusual
warming off the US coast — which is highly characteristic for a
slowdown of the...
(2) Climate models show a «cold blob» in the subpolar Atlantic as well as enhanced
warming off the US east coast as a characteristic response pattern to a
slowdown of the AMOC.
If the recent intensification
of the cool spot were caused by a recent AMOC
slowdown you would expect to see
warming of intermediate waters under a cool fresh water surface layer.
«We conclude that the
slowdown of warming is likely to prove illusory, with more rapid
warming appearing over the next few years.»
One
of the most plausible reasons for the recent
slowdown in
warming is that the deep ocean has been acting as a heat sink, taking up more
warming than the land has in recent years.
They suggest this «pause» in the acceleration
of carbon dioxide concentrations was, in part, due to the effect
of the temporary
slowdown in global average surface
warming during that same period on respiration, the process by which plants and soils release CO2.
The steady uptick in
warming, even with a relative
slowdown in recent decades, means that the likelihood
of seeing a record cold year in the future is, according to a quick calculation by Mann, «astronomically small.»
While the planet's surface temperatures over the past century have risen to unprecedented levels, records have shown a
slowdown in the pace
of warming over the past 15 years.
A recent
slowdown in the upward march
of global temperatures is likely to be the result
of the slow
warming of the deep oceans, British scientists said on Monday.
There was a significant period
of warming during the last 20 years
of the 20th century, followed by a significant
slowdown in
warming during the 21st.
«It has been claimed that the early - 2000s global
warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate
of global surface
warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations.
That optimism may be based on the lowered
warm - ing target in the Paris Agreement (2015),
slowdown in the growth
of global fossil fuel emissions in the past few years (Fig.
There are then at least three independent lines
of evidence that confirm we are not dealing with a
slowdown in the global
warming trend, but rather with progressive global
warming with superimposed natural variability:
This was one
of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the global - average surface air temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics
of the
slowdown in
warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
He and his colleagues have even done analyses that show that after correcting for ENSO effects, there is no sign
of a
slowdown in global
warming at all.
An analysis
of GISS global tempertures shows an increase
of the linear rate
of warming since 1980 up to 2007 (see red trace on graphic here — usually 2 clicks to download your attachment) which strongly suggests a global
slowdown can not have begin before that time.
To some extent, this is again due to the factors mentioned above, but additionally, the models predict that the North Atlantic as a whole will not
warm as fast as the rest
of globe (due to both the deep mixed layers in this region which have a large thermal inertia and a mild
slowdown in the ocean heat transports).
... a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in observations / reanalysis data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling
of the tropical Pacific and a substantial
slowdown in surface
warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.