Alberta's share from
oil sands projects under the new royalty regime (hatched blue) compared to other countries.
The EIA in February reported that Canada pumped an average of 4.5 million barrels a day in 2015, and predicted this would rise to 4.8 million in 2017 as
oil sands projects under construction when oil prices began to fall in 2014 come on line.
Not exact matches
First, I want to look at how the changes not just in
oil prices, but also changes in diluent costs, discounts for
oil sands crude relative to light crude and, in particular, the fall of the Canadian dollar have changed the outlook for new
oil sands projects — for those
under construction, and for those currently operating.
I am not suggesting that an
oil sands project like Shell's could never be «justified in the circumstances»
under CEAA, 2012.
Having recently called out the federal government for failing to provide a justification for its decision to approve Shell's Jackpine mine
oil sands expansion
project (an approach that serves no interest other than the government's, as even industry would stand to benefit from knowing why one
project is justified while another, e.g. Taseko's original Prosperity mine, is not), it was reassuring to see that at least this Joint Review Panel (JRP) shares my understanding of this obligation
under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 2012, SC 2012, c 19.
Based on information and analysis about the North American crude transport infrastructure (particularly the proven ability of rail to transport substantial quantities of crude
oil profitably
under current market conditions, and to add capacity relatively rapidly) and the global crude
oil market, the draft Supplemental EIS concludes that approval or denial of the proposed
Project is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the rate of development in the
oil sands, or on the amount of heavy crude
oil refined in the Gulf Coast area.
Oil sands in situ
projects currently
under consideration need above $ 65 / barrel net - present value (NPV) to break - even according to Rystad Energy.
''
Oil sands are high - cost, high - carbon
projects, being proposed at a time when both costs and emissions are
under pressure to shrink; as such they should immediately hit an investor's higher - risk screen,» warns James Leaton, Research Director at Carbon Tracker.