"Oilsands production" refers to the process of extracting oil from a type of natural resource called oilsands, which are a mixture of sand, water, clay, and bitumen (a thick form of oil). It involves mining or drilling into the oilsands, separating the bitumen from the sand and water, and refining it into usable oil products.
Full definition
The annual forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), released in June, anticipates a 30 % increase
in oilsands production over the next three years and a tripling over the next two decades.
The effects
of oilsands production on climate change must be confronted sooner or later — and given the increasing incidence of weird weather and coastal flooding, probably sooner.
Coincidentally, the light oil price forecast of the day had also crept up, to U.S. $ 24 / bbl plus inflation, with
oilsands production expected to reach 2.2 million barrels per day by 2015.
The potential climate change impacts from
increased oilsands production should also be factored into any calculus, said Greenpeace's Keith Stewart, in an email.
With oilsands production expected to keep growing, crude - by - rail shipments could peak as high as 590,000 barrels a day in 2019 if producers don't resort to crude storage in peak months, the IEA said.
The huge ramp - up in
oilsands production over the past decade — before the industry had worked out environmental bugs such as tailings disposal — helped environmentalists paint a bull's - eye on the industry's back, says Lauerman.
Finding an exit route
for oilsands production is a key priority for the prime minister, as the 2013 throne speech indicates:
«Total greenhouse gas emissions
from oilsands production represent 0.1 per cent, or one one - thousandth, of global emissions.»
In fact, with oil prices increasing only with inflation from $ 18 / bbl in 2000, the NEB expected
total oilsands production to reach 1.6 million barrels per day by 2015.
However, consider that if operating costs had simply risen with inflation, we'd be talking about $ 14 / bbl
Alberta oilsands production today.
Similarly, the deciding factor in whether and how
much oilsands production continues to grow may not be battles over Keystone XL and Northern Gateway so much as a protracted period of low oil prices, the decline in the cost of renewable energy or the adoption of low - carbon policies by governments worldwide.
«We would agree that Alberta's historic focus on
maximizing oilsands production... rather than optimizing production on the highest quality ore may be having unnecessary environmental impacts on things like greenhouse gas intensity and tailings production and lowering returns to Albertans as the owners of the resource,» said Simon Dyer of the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think - tank.
Cenovus reported total production of 555,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter, up from 283,000 boe / d in the same period last year,
as oilsands production rose to 361,000 bpd from 164,000 bpd.
Cenovus said sales volumes in the fourth quarter were about seven per cent lower than
oilsands production due to the two - week shutdown and subsequent volume constraints on TransCanada Corp.'s Keystone pipeline following an oil spill in November in South Dakota.
But the growth of in situ (underground)
oilsands production since 1986, which now constitutes 40 % of overall output and will likely surpass mining in the next decade, created a lot of smaller drill - pad operations that didn't warrant their own multibillion - dollar upgrader.
Alberta could cut its greenhouse gas emissions almost by half by shutting down its coal - fired power plants, a move that would make room for
more oilsands production.
However, the massive forest fire in Alberta that resulted in
oilsands production shutdowns earlier this month have cut into expectations for the economy in the second quarter.
The Alberta and federal governments talk about reducing emissions but somehow believe
expanding oilsands production and shipping dirty bitumen around the world to be burned are compatible with their climate plans.
What the directive fails to recognize is that the carbon intensity
of oilsands production is falling (see our story from last year) and differs from project to project.
While Cenovus and Husky both billed their output slowdowns as temporary, the first - quarter hiccups foreshadow an era of shrinking gains
in oilsands production.
The PCs are counting on
increased oilsands production to boost them out of the cycle of deficits before the 2012 election (I am sure they hope it will boost their party in the polls as well).
Again, the crude oil price forecast was updated to U.S. $ 50 / bbl plus inflation, and
the oilsands production forecast had been updated to 3 million barrels per day in 2015.
Currently, 44 % of
oilsands production is in situ, and Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board anticipates it will surpass 50 % by 2015.
This could in turn cause a slowdown in
oilsands production.