Sentences with phrase «on decadal climate»

I currently co-chair the CLIVAR working group on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) scientific team responsible for the Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.

A new study published in Scientific Reports has developed a state - of - the - art drought and wildfire prediction system based on the decadal climate prediction approach using the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

CLIVAR - ICTP Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenge and Opportunity

Not exact matches

«Based on what we've found, it is possible that sea - level rise over decadal time scales will be a key storyline in future climate predictions,» he said.

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

While the atmosphere is mainly causing climate variations on shorter time scales, from months to years, the longer - term fluctuations, such as those on decadal time scales, are primarily determined by the ocean.

«Such decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming trend slowed or even stopped.

The working group on coupled biogeochemical cycling and controlling factors dealt with questions regarding the role of plankton diversity, how ocean biogeochemistry will respond to global changes on decadal to centennial time scales, the key biogeochemical links between the ocean, atmosphere, and climate, and the role of estuaries, shelves, and marginal seas in the capturing, transformation, and exchange of terrestrial and open - marine material.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingclimate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingClimate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

New research published this week in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of regional coastal sea level changes on these decadal timescales.

Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.

On shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpacOn shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpacon top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpack.

We describe two of the most important teleconnections for Montana below, the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.8 It is important to bear in mind that teleconnections are happening continually, and superimposed on each other as well as upon other long - term climate patterns.

A recurring cyclical pattern in global or regional climate that often occurs on decadal to sub-decadal timescales.

In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth's climate on seasonal to decadal time scale.

Climate oscillations that have a particularly strong influence on Montana's climate are the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal OscillationClimate oscillations that have a particularly strong influence on Montana's climate are the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillationclimate are the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acDecadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.

It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and decadal patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and climate conditions.

oscillation A recurring cyclical pattern in global or regional climate that often occurs on decadal to sub-decadal timescales.

The big takeaway from this study: While there is uncertainty in projections for changes in the climate indices reviewed here (especially El Niño and La Niña), this study serves to alert us to the fact that the climate impacts that our local coastal communities face are based in large part on changes that occur on both a large, global scale and over the long, decadal term.

Using the adjoint of an ocean general circulation model, I try to understand the local and remote processes that generate temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas on different timescales and their potential contribution to decadal climate predictability.

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

In Atmospheric Controls On Northeast Pacific Temperature Variability And Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain climate change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gases.

For the most part, I've not seen much evidence to suggest that internal variations alone can bring the climate to a new state on decadal timescales, even if the internal fluctuations do not completely average out over decades (e.g.,, the PDO being in a positive phase more than a negative phase during the timescale of consideration).

(«On decadal to century timescales, climate dynamics — the complex interplay of multiple external forcings (rapid and slow), the spectrum of atmospheric and ocean circulation oscillations, interactions with biosphere — determines variations in climate.»)

Pieter Tans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stressed the persistent uncertainty in the range of warming expected from a buildup of greenhouse gases as cutting against the idea of specific thresholds: «Our biggest science problem is that we do not know how strong the climate feedbacks are, or even whether we know all of the ones that are important on decadal and longer time scales,» he said in an e-mail.

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

For methane to be a game - changer in the future of Earth's climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air.

Thermal mass of the oceans on the other hand is huge, so they follow with some principal lag of decades, but they follow «noisy» as decadal variations like ENSO or changes in weather patterns due to climate change overlay that.

It also hasn't been well - argued that there is a need to replace the underlying framework we have of how climate changes on decadal timescales.

(1) The «fast response» component of the climate system, consisting of the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer upper ocean, has very little natural variability on the decadal and longer time scale.

This is important because * if * resources were more abundant and * if * climate change were happening more slowly and * if * climate could not possibly change multiple degrees and multiple meters of SLR on decadal time scales, my solution set would be vastly different.

To the uninitiated, I suspect the claim reads as though climate is a highly variable entity (it would be worth polling an audience for how they interpret it) that just gets up on its own and does what it wants on decadal timescales, sort of like a random walk that is unconstrained by any physics.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

And now that our activities are directly affecting the world's climate, this fluctuation will exacerbate, and not just on a million - year time scale, but on a century - and decadal - scale (and if things go really badly, possibly on an annual - scale).

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

It appears that Ghil, and others specifically warn against the use of MEM and temperature data: «Instrumental temperature data over the last few centuries do not seem, for instance, to determine sufficiently well the behavior of global or local temperatures to permit a reliable climate forecast on the decadal timescale by this SSA - MEM method.»

But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.

On decadal and longer time scales, global mean sea level change results from two major processes, mostly related to recent climate change, that alter the volume of water in the global ocean: i) thermal expansion (Section 5.5.3), and ii) the exchange of water between oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets, other land water reservoirs - including through anthropogenic change in land hydrology, and the atmosphere; Section 5.5.5).

My understanding is that the response of the climate system to even a constant solar influx is highly chaotic, even on decadal time scales.

The likelihood of climate - change catastrophe obviously is zero on decadal time - scales, and it is reasonably small too (we hope!)

The stagnation in greenhouse warming observed over the past 15 + years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune climate variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales.

PCIC welcomes Dr. Alex Cannon who has joined PCIC as a Research Climatologist to work alongside the consortium's scientific and technical staff in the development of new tools and methodology for predicting climate extremes on seasonal and decadal time scales.

There has been a recent emphasis in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.

It is also important to note that the models are not designed to project climate on a decadal basis, but on a centennial basis, where the effects of internal variability can more reasonably be expected to average out.

Anastasios Tsonis, of the Atmospheric Sciences Group at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and colleagues used a mathematical network approach to analyse abrupt climate change on decadal timescales.

[1] The SPCZ can affect the precipitation on Polynesian islands in the southwest Pacific Ocean, so it is important to understand how the SPCZ behaves with large - scale, global climate phenomenon, such as the ITCZ, El Niño — Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a portion of the Pacific decadal oscillation.

Results from our previous study indicated that the magnitude of unforced variability simulated by climate models may be underestimated on decadal and longer timescales and our new estimate of unforced variability largely supports this conclusion.

In 2014 climate scientists published a peer - reviewed paper (Johnstone 2014) suggesting that climate change along the coast of North America could be best explained by natural cycles of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to its affects on sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific.