I currently co-chair the CLIVAR working group
on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) scientific team responsible for the Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.
CLIVAR - ICTP Workshop
on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenge and Opportunity
Not exact matches
A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain
climate variability on decadal time scales.
On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of
climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
climate variability, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in
Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending
on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and
decadal patterns of
climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and
climate conditions.
In Atmospheric Controls
On Northeast Pacific Temperature
Variability And Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation can explain
climate change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gases.
She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural
variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of
climate variations
on decadal to century time scales.»
(1) The «fast response» component of the
climate system, consisting of the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer upper ocean, has very little natural
variability on the
decadal and longer time scale.
«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural
variability to cause
climate fluctuations
on decadal scale, even
on a global scale.
The stagnation in greenhouse warming observed over the past 15 + years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune
climate variability on decadal and multi-
decadal time scales.
It is also important to note that the models are not designed to project
climate on a
decadal basis, but
on a centennial basis, where the effects of internal
variability can more reasonably be expected to average out.
Results from our previous study indicated that the magnitude of unforced
variability simulated by
climate models may be underestimated
on decadal and longer timescales and our new estimate of unforced
variability largely supports this conclusion.
This analytical report covers the first decade of the 21st century and aims at providing a
decadal perspective of
climate variability and change and its observed impacts
on different sectors.
Crucially,
on previous occasions when
decadal warming was particularly rapid, the scientific community did not give short - term
climate variability the attention it has recently received, when
decadal warming was slower.
The IPCC treats natural internal
variability as «noise»; we argue that it is the fundamental
climate signal
on decadal to century time scales, with external forcing projecting onto these modes.
The platform will complement existing GMES / Copernicus pre-operational components, but will focus
on datasets which provide information
on climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales from observed and projected
climate change impacts in Europe, and will provide a toolbox to generate, compare and rank key indicators.
Ole Willy says, «The hiatus in warming observed over the past 16 years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob
on climate variability on decadal time scales.»
The
Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and
Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and
Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the
climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and
climate system to be predicted
on annual to
decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and
decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale
variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society
(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information
on global, national, regional, and local
climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual,
decadal, and multidecadal time periods;
The influence of large - scale
climate modes of
variability (the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB-
on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.
Building
on previous efforts, this three - day workshop will use the outcomes to guide synthesis efforts, coordinate
on - going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific recommendations for accelerating scientific progress — with the aim to improve our understanding and predictability of 1) high - to mid-latitude
climate variability on subseasonal - to - seasonal and
on interannual - to -
decadal timescales and 2)
climate extremes.
The missing
variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical
climate on interannual and
decadal time scales can be improved.»
To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for
climate variability and predictability
on seasonal, interannual,
decadal, and centennial time - scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled
climate system, in cooperation with other relevant
climate - research and observing programmes.
«The authors write that North Pacific
Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global
climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global
climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled
climate models is an important «open question in
climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century
climate... conclude that «for implications
on future
climate change, the coupled
climate models show no consensus
on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»
Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual
variability with far - reaching effects
on global
climate patterns5, 6, 7.
The model is actually based
on ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — and can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of
climate variability.
Over these shorter periods, there are many modes of
climate variability, usually involving semi-structured oscillations in sea surface temperatures, like the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and so
on.
Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural
variability,
on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by
climate models, and the longer term Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.»
Variability of our
climate on a
decadal basis is considerable and is even greater
on an annual basis.
After all, the sun's
variability appears to track rather closely with
climate on millennial, centennial, and
decadal timescales.
Climate exhibits
variability on decadal (10 - 20 year) timescales, with important societal consequences from impacts
on rainfall patterns to altering fishery habitats.
Unforced
variability of global temperature is great, as shown in Figure 4, but the global temperature trend
on decadal and longer time scales is now determined by the larger human - made
climate forcing.
Variability of our
climate on a
decadal basis is considerable.
One of the objectives was to provide evidence of the
decadal climate variability and predictability in the Nordic Region with the aim to assess the impact
on forest growth, and energy production and demand.
While there still is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the effects of the PDO
on Earth's
climate, the U.K. Met Office says that «
decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean may have played a substantial role in the recent pause in global surface temperature rise.»
This project will use a novel
climate modelling approach to improve our understanding of drivers of
climate variability on decadal timescales in Europe and North America.
Natural factors such as the Sun (84 papers), multi-
decadal oceanic - atmospheric oscillations such as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers),
decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and internal
variability in general have exerted a significant influence
on weather and
climate changes during both the past and present.
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The new paper by McCarthy et al. (2015) Ocean impact
on decadal Atlantic
climate variability revealed by sea - level observations has gained some attention around the blogosphere.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future
climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conc
climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future
Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conc
Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1
Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conc
Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of
climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conc
climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in
Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6
Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal
variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6
variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual
variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6
variability 9.3.5.3
Decadal and longer time - scale
variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6
variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary
on changes in extremes of weather and
climate 9.3.6.6 Conc
climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions
This report summarizes the presentations and discussions from a September 2015 workshop convened to examine
variability in Earth's
climate on decadal timescales.
Although there exist observational estimates of the SAMOC, the
decadal and multi-
decadal variability of the SAMOC and its influence
on climate and weather can not be assessed due to its short temporal record.
And the» stagnation in greenhouse warming observed over the past 15 + years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune
climate variability on decadal and multi-
decadal time scales.»