While I can't speak as an expert, I did do a little more digging, this time into the IPCC AR4 WG1 and found a lot of information
on aerosol modelling and the newest developments.
Not exact matches
Their
aerosol paths and effects
on surface temperatures could be
modeled using Pinatubo guidelines.
This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate
models based
on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols.
And by carefully measuring and
modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Michigan whose work focuses
on improving global climate
models and their ability to
model the interplay between clouds and
aerosol particles.
Now, the NSF is helping researchers develop new chemical
models that will provide better estimates
on the global contribution of these
aerosols.
Unfortunately, current simulation
models, which combine global climate
models with
aerosol transport
models, consistently underestimate the amount of these
aerosols in the Arctic compared to actual measurements during the spring and winter seasons, making it difficult to accurately assess the impact of these substances
on the climate.
Computer
models suggest that deploying
aerosols can have «an appreciable impact
on tropical cyclone intensity,» writes William Cotton, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University.
The computer
model determines how the average surface temperature responds to changing natural factors, such as volcanoes and the sun, and human factors — greenhouse gases,
aerosol pollutants, and so
on.
The researchers used water and water mixed with glycerin to create a
model for predicting the velocity and height of the droplets, or jet
aerosols, cast upward as bubbles
on a liquid's surface burst.
The information could also feed into climate
models to help understand the effects of clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
However, he says, «
Aerosol effects
on climate are one of the main uncertainties in climate
models.
The latter type of sensors, Robock notes, could directly measure the size distribution of
aerosols, which could help researchers better
model their effects
on climate.
Indeed the estimate of
aerosol forcing used in the calculation of transient climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from climate
models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those
models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC).
I disagree with Leis's claim that climate
models do not good enough information
on aerosol effects.
I used was the surface temperature responses from histAll --(histGHG + histNatural) to obtain the response to
aerosols + ozone + land - use and derive the enhancement of the response for that case relative to WMGHGs that I called E. Calculation of TCR based
on histAll in a
model is approximately the same as calculating the sum of responses to histGHG, histNat, and histInhomogeneous where the latter includes the factor E.
This is one of the best examples of why
aerosol mixing state is so important for
modeling the effect of
aerosols on climate.
After all, the (secundary) influence of
aerosols (
on clouds) is included in
models too, and its sensitivity is far from certain...
The multi-scale
aerosol - climate
model, an extension of a multi-scale
modeling framework, examined specific
aerosol - cloud interactions and their effects
on the Earth's energy budget, one of the toughest climate forecasting problems.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding of the radiative effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate
models.
However, to make climate
models more accurate, we are focused
on developing a better understanding of the dynamics of organic
aerosols formed from plant - based organic vapors and their interaction with
aerosols emitted from human activities,» said Dr. Chen Song, a PNNL atmospheric scientist.
Because small - scale climate features, such as clouds and atmospheric
aerosol particles, have a large impact
on global climate, it's important to improve the methods used to represent those climate features in the
models.
These
models focus
on small numbers of
aerosol properties or processes.
This study has advanced scientists» capabilities to
model and predict those complex
aerosol - cloud interactions
on the Earth's energy budget, for a balanced and energy - sustainable future.
-- It is practically proven that tropospheric
aerosols have (far) less influence
on temperature than expected by current
models, see my comment
on aerosols here and the lack of increase in insolation, despite a huge reduction of
aerosols in Europe, according to Philipona ea.
These programs focus
on climate,
aerosol and cloud physics; global and regional scale
modeling; integrated assessment of global change; and complex regional meteorology and chemistry.
He is particularly interested in the role of
aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, and has worked
on the processes that describe these components of the atmosphere, the computational details that are needed to describe them in computer
models, and
on their impact
on climate.
PNNL is using an integrative research approach that draws
on our depth and breadth of capabilities in atmospheric chemistry, climate physics,
modeling, and measurement to address critical scientific questions related to the role of
aerosols in the climate system.
He is a co-chair of the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Systems Research Cloud -
Aerosol - Precipitation Interactions Working Group, co-chair of the CESM Climate - Chemistry Working Group, and served 6 years
on the Scientific Steering Committee for the Community Earth System
Model.
Vision PNNL will take a leadership role in the incorporation of
aerosols into climate
models, through integrative research
on atmospheric
aerosol interactions and through development of innovative instrumentation and measurement techniques.
First computer
model simulation of
aerosol production done based
on laboratory measurements
Wang has extensive experiences
on modeling aerosols, clouds and
aerosol - cloud interactions in global climate
models.
Proposed campaigns should focus
on research that addresses the ARM mission of improving the understanding and representation of clouds and
aerosols in climate and earth system
models, as well as their interactions and coupling with Earth's surface.
Until recently, the properties of these
aerosols were hard to experimentally characterize, forcing computational
models to rely
on unsupported assumptions.
«We developed and implemented new
modeling approaches based
on laboratory measurements to include shielding of toxics by organic
aerosols in a global atmosphere
model that resulted in large improvements of
model predictions,» said PNNL scientist Dr. Manish Shrivastava.
In addition,
model intercomparison studies do not quantify the range of uncertainty associated with a specific
aerosol process, nor does this type of uncertainty analysis provide much information
on which
aerosol process needs improving the most.
Her research experience includes
modeling of organic
aerosol oxidation at LBNL, fabrication and optimization of high performance semiconductor nanoparticle - based image sensors as Manager of Materials Development at InVisage Technologies, Inc., and foundational and applied research as a Research Staff Member at IBM's Almaden Research Center
on transformations in dielectrics, semiconductors, metals, and polymer films.
He is leading projects investigating the impacts of snow and ice impurities
on climate and water resources, and the
aerosol sub-grid progress and parameterizations in climate
models.
Aerosols and cloud processes vary
on much smaller time and space scales than climate
models can simulate.
Forward
model approaches to estimating
aerosol forcing are based
on estimates of emissions and
models of
aerosol physics and chemistry.
All the Good Boys and Girls In the Suburbs Got
Model Trains For Christmas, 2016, acrylic, oil pastel, airbrush,
aerosol on canvas, 49 x 59 inches
The prediction of the long - term trajectory, depends
on the climate forcing (greenhouse gases,
aerosols, solar variability) and how the
model responds to those forcings via feedbacks.
Should this prove to be significant, climate
models will likely incorporate this directly (using embedded
aerosol codes), or will parameterise the effects based
on calculated cloud variations from more detailed
models.
The global mean
aerosol radiative forcing caused by the ship emissions ranges from -12.5 to -23 mW / m ^ 2, depending
on whether the mixing between black carbon and sulfate is included in the
model.
Then
on top of this
model you would simply estimate the relevant parameters such as feedbacks,
aerosols, etc..
Based
on NASA's CMIP5 forcing
model, year 2012 has a greenhouse forcing of 3.54 Wm2, ozone has 0.45 Wm2, atmospheric
aerosols have -0.89 Wm2 combined direct / indirect, and land use has -0.19 Wm2, all based
on iRF.
The top panel shows the direct effects of the individual components, while the second panel attributes various indirect factors (associated with atmospheric chemistry,
aerosol cloud interactions and albedo effects) and includes a
model estimate of the «efficacy» of the forcing that depends
on its spatial distribution.
But that was within the constraints of the
model (no change in
aerosol influence, lack of solar stratospheric influences, no influence of solar
on cloud cover...).
After all, the (secundary) influence of
aerosols (
on clouds) is included in
models too, and its sensitivity is far from certain...
Has anyone
modeled and published the effects of anthropogenic Chinese / Indian
aerosol emissions
on monsoonal / SE Asian climate?
Arnost's link to the
Model E hindcast also illustrates how GCMs rely
on volcanic
aerosols to create inter-annual variability.