What is missing is the more quantitative information
on aerosol radiative properties, geographical distributions, trends, and observational results (including uncertainties) that can be found in the IPCC AR4 Report.
Not exact matches
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding of the
radiative effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate models.
In addition, researchers calculated the changes in the shortwave and longwave and net radiation between the pre-industrial simulation and the present - day simulations to estimate the
radiative forcing resulting from the
aerosol effects
on cirrus clouds.
Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering
aerosols Geoengineering
aerosols change stratospheric
radiative heating rates Heating rates depend
on aerosol species and size
The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties in climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding of the effect of climate change
on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding of regional climate change, changes in extremes) and reducing uncertainties in
radiative forcing — particularly those associated with
aerosols.
Ice sheet albedo forcing is estimated to have caused a global mean forcing of about — 3.2 W m — 2 (based
on a range of several LGM simulations) and
radiative forcing from increased atmospheric
aerosols (primarily dust and vegetation) is estimated to have been about — 1 W m — 2 each.
As long as the temporal pattern of variation in
aerosol forcing is approximately correct, the need to achieve a reasonable fit to the temporal variation in global mean temperature and the difference between Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures can provide a useful constraint
on the net
aerosol radiative forcing (as demonstrated, e.g., by Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Stott et al., 2006c).
Solar activity impacts
on climate are a fascinating topic, and encompass direct
radiative processes, indirect effects via atmospheric chemistry and (potentially)
aerosol formation effects.
The global mean
aerosol radiative forcing caused by the ship emissions ranges from -12.5 to -23 mW / m ^ 2, depending
on whether the mixing between black carbon and sulfate is included in the model.
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic
aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE
radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context of measuring their
radiative effect, they can be described as having
radiative forcings of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends
on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
In addition, some models include the indirect effects of tropospheric sulphate
aerosols on clouds (e.g., Tett et al., 2002), whereas others consider only the direct
radiative effect (e.g., Meehl et al., 2004).
To evaluate the global effects of
aerosols on the direct
radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, and cloud properties of the earth's atmosphere requires high - precision remote sensing that is sensitive to the
aerosol optical thickness, size istribution, refractive index, and number density.
Given our very short and spotty data
on the relative abundance (or importance) of the majority of these
aerosols, and given our very poor understanding of the direct, indirect, and side effects of the majority of these
aerosols, any numbers that anyone generates about their abundance, importance, or total
radiative forcing are going to be a SWAG.
The effect
on radiative forcing of assuming different values for indirect
aerosol forcing.
DK12 compounded their erroneous analysis by attempting to calculate the net climate feedback based solely
on their estimated 2002 - 2008 OHC increase for the uppermost 700 meters, and only considering the CO2 and solar
radiative forcings, ignoring the significant
aerosol forcing, for example.
There are lots of experts
on small subsets of all the physics that go into climate,
radiative physics, clouds,
aerosol, oceans, multi-decadal oscillations, solar, global ice, etc..
The effect of anthropogenic black carbon (BC)
aerosol on snow is of enduring interest due to its role in
aerosol radiative forcing and further consequences for Arctic and global climate change.
That is appropriate since it is the
radiative forcing produced by
aerosols, ozone etc. in the recent climate state, not in the 1850 climate state, that determines their effect
on recent temperatures.
I may have to re-read the Wild paper and again look exactly for what I failed to find the first time: local temperature observations
on the surface matching the expected effects of the
aerosol radiative forcings the paper does talk a lot about.
In response to the finding that anthropogenic
aerosols create a significant perturbation in the earth's
radiative balance
on regional scales, ESRL / GMD expanded its
aerosol research program (1992) to include
aerosol monitoring stations in regions where significant
aerosol forcing was expected.
But including
aerosol indirect effects
on radiative forcing has made it easier to generate a greater variety of 20th century simulations without affecting other aspects of the climate simulation as strongly.
This suggests that temperature in these CMIP5 models may be too sensitive to perturbations in
radiative forcing, although this depends
on the actual magnitude of the anthropogenic
aerosol forcing in the modern period.
He thought that this connection might occur via the effect of cosmic ray induced ionization
on aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei and thus
on the
radiative properties of clouds.
The current focus of the program is
aerosol radiative forcing of climate:
aerosol formation and evolution and
aerosol properties that affect direct and indirect influences
on climate and climate change.»
Although we focus
on a hypothesized CR - cloud connection, we note that it is difficult to separate changes in the CR flux from accompanying variations in solar irradiance and the solar wind, for which numerous causal links to climate have also been proposed, including: the influence of UV spectral irradiance
on stratospheric heating and dynamic stratosphere - troposphere links (Haigh 1996); UV irradiance and
radiative damage to phytoplankton influencing the release of volatile precursor compounds which form sulphate
aerosols over ocean environments (Kniveton et al. 2003); an amplification of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations by the addition of energy in cloud - free regions enhancing tropospheric circulation features (Meehl et al. 2008; Roy & Haigh 2010); numerous solar - related influences (including solar wind inputs) to the properties of the global electric circuit (GEC) and associated microphysical cloud changes (Tinsley 2008).
Aerosols not only affect the
radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere but also exert a forcing
on the hydrological cycle (e.g., Ramanathan et al., 2001a).
Incorporating new findings
on the
radiative forcing of black carbon (BC)
aerosols, the magnitude of the climate sensitivity, and the strength of the climate / carbon cycle feedbacks into a simple upwelling diffusion / energy balance model similar to the one that was used in the TAR, we find that the range of projected warming for the 1990 - 2100 period is reduced to 1.1 - 2.8 °C.
Considering the surface
radiative forcing may enable quantification of the effects of
aerosols on the surface
effects of
aerosols on cloud properties (including cloud fraction, cloud microphysical parameters, and precipitation efficiency), which may modify the hydrological cycle without significant
radiative impacts;
The probabilistic analyses of DAI reported in this section draw substantially
on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to describe key uncertainties in the climate system, such as climate sensitivity, the rate of oceanic heat uptake, current
radiative forcing, and indirect
aerosol forcing.
CO; 2 Observations of the Infrared
Radiative Properties of the Ocean «[I] t is necessary to understand the physical variables contributing to sea surface emitted and reflected radiation to space.The emissivity of the ocean surface varies with view angle and sea state, the reflection of sky radiation also depends
on view angle and sea state, and the absorption of atmospheric constituents such as water vapor,
aerosols, and subdivisible clouds affect transmittance.»
Additional variables also being measured by Aqua include
radiative energy fluxes,
aerosols, vegetation cover
on the land, phytoplankton and dissolved organic matter in the oceans, and air, land, and water temperatures.
2) The effects of clouds and
aerosols on radiative heat transfer, which are many and varied and still being studied with many questions open.
But even if this is a result of the GISS model, this largely depends
on the assumptions made in the model for e.g. amounts and
radiative effect of
aerosols, which are far from settled.
By 1994, with work
on SAR progressing, the Special Report
on Radiative Forcing (IPCC, 1995) reported significant breakthroughs in a set of chapters limited to assessment of the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry,
aerosols and RF.
The SAR, under Bert Bolin (IPCC Chair) and John Houghton and Gylvan Meira Filho (WGI Co-chairs), was planned with and coupled to a preliminary Special Report (IPCC, 1995) that contained intensive chapters
on the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry,
aerosols and
radiative forcing.
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an energy imbalance imposed
on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar energy output or volcanic emissions) or by human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or emissions of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and their precursors).
In terms of sulphate
aerosols, both the direct
radiative effects and the indirect effects
on clouds were acknowledged, but the importance of carbonaceous
aerosols from fossil fuel and biomass combustion was not recognised (Chapters 2, 7 and 10).
This study will examine the current state of knowledge regarding the direct and indirect
radiative forcing effects of gases,
aerosols, land use, and solar variability
on the climate of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and it will identify research needed to improve our understanding of these effects.
On aerosols, I am particularly keen to learn more about the possibility to selectively scatter out UV, something that would have large benefits on top of compensating for the radiative forcing of CO
On aerosols, I am particularly keen to learn more about the possibility to selectively scatter out UV, something that would have large benefits
on top of compensating for the radiative forcing of CO
on top of compensating for the
radiative forcing of CO2.
Here luck was
on Broecker's side: the warming by other greenhouse gases and the cooling by
aerosols largely cancel today, so considering only CO2 leads to almost the same
radiative forcing as considering all anthropogenic effects
on climate (see IPCC AR4, Fig.
But a reminder, you are doing V&V
on the dynamic core, the bottom boundary conditions (like orography), each individual parameterization (e.g.
radiative transfer, convection, boundary layer, clouds, etc), and in the case of coupled models the ocean module, the sea ice module, the land process module, the
aerosol module (and in future the ice sheet module), in stand alone mode as well as when coupled in the climate model.
Emissions scenarios were converted to projections of atmospheric GHG and
aerosol concentrations,
radiative forcing of the climate, effects
on regional climate, and climatic effects
on global sea level (IPCC, 2001a).
In the thread
on Confidence in
Radiative Transfer Models, we argued that line - by - line radiative transfer codes and the best band models can accurately simulate clear sky (no clouds, aerosols) infrared radiation fluxes at the surface provided that the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and trace gas concentrations are specified ac
Radiative Transfer Models, we argued that line - by - line
radiative transfer codes and the best band models can accurately simulate clear sky (no clouds, aerosols) infrared radiation fluxes at the surface provided that the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and trace gas concentrations are specified ac
radiative transfer codes and the best band models can accurately simulate clear sky (no clouds,
aerosols) infrared radiation fluxes at the surface provided that the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and trace gas concentrations are specified accurately.
Several observational studies (see Chapter 5) support the existence of the first
aerosol indirect effect
on low - level clouds and a negative sign for the associated
radiative forcing, but these studies do not give indications
on what a (negative) upper bound of the forcing would be.
Appendix II gives, in tabulated form, the values for emissions, abundances and burdens, and,
radiative forcing of major greenhouse gases and
aerosols based
on the SRES1 scenarios (Naki» cenovi» c et.