Read my other posts
on aerosols since I agree with you that aerosol component had low leverage in the 1910 to 1945 period.
Not exact matches
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the increase in
aerosols and clouds
since pre-industrial times represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate change5.
Since,
on average,
aerosols have a cooling effect (although some absorbing
aerosols like black carbon (soot) are actually adding to global warming), reducing current
aerosol levels (particularly sulphates) is equivalent to an extra warming effect.
Right now, and into the foreseeable future, the net forcing forcing is positive, but its GHGs —
aerosols, and the
aerosols are complicated,
since their forcing depends
on location.
Now,
since the cloud /
aerosols issue has reared its ugly head, internal ocean dynamics also can have a profound impact
on climate.
«
Since the mid-1940's over 200 basic chemicals have been created for use in killing insects, weeds, rodents, and other organisms described in the modern vernacular as «pests»... These sprays, dusts, and
aerosols are now applied almost universally to farms, gardens, forests, and homes... Can anyone believe it is possible to lay down such a barrage of poisons
on the surface of the earth without making it unfit for all life?»
The «GHG only» sensitivity of ~ 1.34 C per doubling would appear to hard lower bound
on ECS,
since it assumes no
aerosol offsets and runs over much less that the time needed (>> 100 years) to approach equilibrium.
That is appropriate
since it is the radiative forcing produced by
aerosols, ozone etc. in the recent climate state, not in the 1850 climate state, that determines their effect
on recent temperatures.
There have been many studies aiming to test this hypothesis
since AR4, 50 which fall in two categories: i) studies that seek to establish a causal relationship between cosmic rays and 51
aerosols / clouds by looking at correlations between the two quantities
on timescales of days to decades, and 52 ii) studies that test through observations or modelling one of the physical mechanisms that have been put 53 forward.
There have been many studies aiming to test this hypothesis
since AR4, which fall in two categories: i) studies that seek to establish a causal relationship between cosmic rays and
aerosols / clouds by looking at correlations between the two quantities
on timescales of days to decades, and studies that test through observations or modeling one of the physical mechanisms that have been put forward.
The UV
Aerosol Index (UV - AI), which is an excellent indicator of the column amounts of light - absorbing particles in clear as well as cloudy atmospheres, showed 2016 was the smokiest season
on record
since 2004.
Bellouin goes
on to make corrections for cloudy skies and changes in
aerosols since pre-industrial times, giving a final direct forcing estimate of -0.3 W / m ^ 2, leading to a total figure of -0.7 W / m ^ 2, not -0.9 W / m ^ 2.
This is AF, not RF,
since the observed NH and SH temperatures
on which it is based reflect all effects of
aerosols - they can not and do not distinguish the main RF component from the total AF.
Here I offer what I believe is a more robust regression analysis of the same three variables (volcanic
aerosols, ENSO, and solar cycle)
on temperature evolution
since 1950.
Ironically, it is exactly because
aerosol forcing is so uncertain and because the climate hasn't equilibrated yet that the observed warming
since pre-industrial times is only a very weak constraint
on climate sensitivity.
Whereas all of the IPCC AR4 models agree that the warming observed
since 1970 can only be reproduced using anthropogenic forcings, models disagree
on the relative importance of solar, volcanic, and
aerosol forcing in the earlier part of the 20th century (IPCC AR4 WGI Section 9.4.1).
This implies that
aerosol forcing has had almost the same effect
on GMST
since 1850, relative to its ERF, as did CO2 and GHG forcing.
You claim chinas temperatures have continued to increase recently despite their coal burning and sulphate
aerosols, with no basic knowledge that 1) they have filters
on the power stations to remove most particulate matter like this
since the 1980's, and 2) CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere overwhelming particulates, which are short lived in the atmosphere.
You claim chinas temperatures have continued to increase recently despite their coal burning and sulphate
aerosols, with no basic knowledge that 1) they have filters
on the power stations to remove most particulate matter like this
since the 1980's,»
The present 3 - D modeling study focuses
on aerosol chemical composition change
since preindustrial times considering the secondary organic
aerosol formation together with all other main
aerosol components including nitrate.